Joe v. Morris Round II (Joe's AAR)

[Peter Stauffenberg]

I think Morris will regret his very aggressive winter offensive. .

No , I don't regret my winter offensive , but I do regret my stupid reckless move in the last severe winter .It cost my precious Mech & corp .

Actually , I made several traps for Joe ,but He jumped into none of them ! But I am preparing some more for this great elite ! I hope someday he will drop into one of them

That is what I meant using the term VERY aggressive. You have to make a Russian 1941 winter offensive to win the game, but you have to know when you halt the offensive and withdraw for the German 1942 offensive.

It's tempting to attack one extra turn instead of retreating while the weather is still favorable for the Russians. One never knows when the weather changes to fair and then the Germans will be dangerous.

You have the similar situation in the fall where the Germans must halt their offensive in time to regain efficiency and form a defense line BEFORE the winter hits.

[Morris]

yes , you are quite farsighted !

[Peter Stauffenberg]

yes , you are quite farsighted !

Actually I'm nearsighted and use contact lenses to see at a distance.

[Morris]

yes , you are quite farsighted !

Actually I'm nearsighted and use contact lenses to see at a distance.

I am nearsighted too !

[Crazygunner1]

Nice to see your "plan" for winter paid off. Good job!!! As you still have contact with the russian frontline you will be wise not to let him rest during summer 42. As the conversation was before i saw no choice but to head down south and take the oilfields....but as it looks now i really think you should concentrate on Moscow...like you have already done swing up north with the major part of your southern army group to destroy much infantry and encircle Moscow. Morris tanks won´t do much good if they are railed up north around Moscow. The question becomes though, will the oil be enough if you go for Moscow?

[Cybvep]

If Germany starts to face oil shortages in 1942, then it will be a very bad sign. However, a player of Joe's calibre will no doubt manage his oil carefully, so while it will put limits on strategy, I doubt that Joe will run out before winter of 1944 or sth.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

Joe seems to mainly build corps units and probably focus his research on those units. You can also see that his air and armor units aren't upgraded completely. Probably to save oil.

I think it can be a good idea to take Moscow and use the good defensive terrain in the north to make the Russians pay to liberate the territory. Joe's weakness is that Morris can quickly liberate the south with his armor because it's mainly clear terrain. If Morris is allowed to push all the way west to the Carpathians in the upcoming Russian offensive then Joe gets a big bulge in the defense line if his forces are east of Moscow in the north.

Just look at the 1944 starting position in the east. It will be similar after the Russian 1942 offensive is over. So lack of oil will certainly be a big issue for Joe in 1943. He will need armor and tactical bombers to keep the Russians tanks at bay, but doing so can completely deplete his oil reserves.

I therefore think Morris can push the Axis forces off the cliff by squeezing everywhere. E. g. an Allied invasion in Sicily and soon after mainland Italy / France can get the Axis oil reserves so far down that the Russians can attack at will in 1943.

I think Joe is not showing us his exact oil reserves for a reason. I have a feeling they are a bit higher than we might expect. Not upgrading his oil consuming units will help quite a bit. Not having his oilfields bombed will help too.

[Cybvep]

Joe doesn't show his MP or PP income, either. Anyway, I doubt that his oil situation is desperate. I'm not an elite player, but in most of my games whenever the Allied player starts to think that the Axis player is facing an oil shortage, it turns out that this wasn't true in the end. When I'm playing as the Allies, I never COUNT on Axis' oil shortages, but treat it as a bonus. Oil stockpile rarely hits 0, because the players are smart and can think in advance, so they become a bit less aggressive when the oil stockpile is diminishing rapidly. It is amazing how much oil you can save by stopping attacks for some turns (this allows you to repair and upgrade units, too) and trading PPs for oil by overspending rail capacity. Also, in 1943-1945 the Axis doesn't need as much oil, because the biggest offensives are already over. The biggest problem is of course air power, which consumes tons of oil, but there is a high chance that the Axis will lose air superiority in 1944, anyway.

In fact, I'm usually quite happy when my opponent is targeting oil fields with STRATs in 1943-1945 instead of attacking PP cities, as it probably means that he thinks that my oil stockpile is very low, which is usually untrue. PPs, on the other hand, are always useful for the Axis at any stage of the game. The chance is that you will end every turn in red in 1944-1945, so every saved PP is useful.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

If the front lines are static then you can save quite a bit of oil. The problem in Russia is that once the Russian steamroller begins you need to move the panzers every turn so they don't get overrun by the Russian tanks. That consumes quite a bit of oil. You can run them to a rear city and rail them to safety, but then you can't plug holes in the defense line as easily.

The Germans want to bombard the best Allied and Russian units with their tactical bombers and that's very oil consuming. Attacking transports is particularly lucrative for the Axis.

[joerock22]

Joe doesn't show his MP or PP income, either. Anyway, I doubt that his oil situation is desperate. I'm not an elite player, but in most of my games whenever the Allied player starts to think that the Axis player is facing an oil shortage, it turns out that this wasn't true in the end. When I'm playing as the Allies, I never COUNT on Axis' oil shortages, but treat it as a bonus. Oil stockpile rarely hits 0, because the players are smart and can think in advance, so they become a bit less aggressive when the oil stockpile is diminishing rapidly. It is amazing how much oil you can save by stopping attacks for some turns (this allows you to repair and upgrade units, too) and trading PPs for oil by overspending rail capacity. Also, in 1943-1945 the Axis doesn't need as much oil, because the biggest offensives are already over. The biggest problem is of course air power, which consumes tons of oil, but there is a high chance that the Axis will lose air superiority in 1944, anyway.

In fact, I'm usually quite happy when my opponent is targeting oil fields with STRATs in 1943-1945 instead of attacking PP cities, as it probably means that he thinks that my oil stockpile is very low, which is usually untrue. PPs, on the other hand, are always useful for the Axis at any stage of the game. The chance is that you will end every turn in red in 1944-1945, so every saved PP is useful.

I play the exact same way! I like it when Allied players target my oil, because most of the time they think my levels are lower than they actually are. The key is to save enough for one final tank offensive late in the war when the Allied player gets too careless, even if it means putting fighters on sentry sooner than you would like. Keeping the tanks relevant late in the war is the biggest reason to save oil early in the war.

[joerock22]

If the front lines are static then you can save quite a bit of oil. The problem in Russia is that once the Russian steamroller begins you need to move the panzers every turn so they don't get overrun by the Russian tanks. That consumes quite a bit of oil. You can run them to a rear city and rail them to safety, but then you can't plug holes in the defense line as easily.

Very true. But I don't intend to let the Russians steamroller really get going until mid-1943 at the earliest. We'll see how that works out!

[joerock22]

Turn 53 – July 7, 1942

Morris pulls back again in the south and center, but stands his ground in the northern forests. A smart decision by him, I think. Nevertheless, I see an opportunity to turn the Red Army’s northern flank and push forward from the south as well. For this I will need serious air support, which I have in place. I will take some losses as this is good defensive terrain and the Soviets are dug in, but I have already decided to try to capture Moscow before winter. Attacking here is also very low risk, as the Soviet heavy units are far, far away and do not maneuver well in the forest.

A major development in Scotland…Scapa Flow is captured by Germany! This is huge! The Allies now have no supply source in England and the British units still stranded there will be easy to finish off in a few turns. See the screenshots for an explanation how this great event transpired.

England





USSR North





USSR South





Finally Tally: only 4 corps for 140 PPs. But strategic gains in this turn were far more important, especially turning the Russian flank east of Kalinin. Hopefully this can be exploited to kill more units in subsequent turns.

[Cybvep]

There is not much the Russians can do ATM. Losing Moscow will hurt - that's 10 PPs per turn x war effort + some PPs for you as well, after all.

Taking Scapa Flow is a nice bonus - those 3 units should be destroyed easily now and the Allies will have no supply source when they invade in 1943, which will undoubtedly happen. I wouldn't be surprised if Morris used Ireland as a back-door entrance.

[Morris]

losing Scapa did hurt ! Stupid mistake to put a 4step STR inside there !
Allies came to the most serious situation

[Peter Stauffenberg]

Killing the 3 British units in Scotland has another benefit. Britain will now have no home guard units and that means they will lose some efficiency. It's countered by Russian and USA being in the war, but every efficiency lost will help the Axis.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

I think Russia must pull back fast in the north so the Germans can't cut-off the Moscow area from reinforcements. Russia can afford losing Moscow, but not losing all the units in the area to encirclement. The Russian northern flank is really weak and the only way to form a defense line in the north is to move units from west of Moscow north east.

Maybe Morris needs to rail some mech units form the south to the area near Moscow. He will need better than corps units to liberate Moscow during the 1942 Russian winter offensive. Russian guards units will be particularly valuable in counter attacks during the winter.

It's not fun to give up forest terrain as the Russians, but making a new straight line is more important.

I think the British fighter in the Scapa Flow airfield is doomed too. Lerwick and Kirkwall are supposed to be German controlled so evacuating will not be easy.

[joerock22]

I think the British fighter in the Scapa Flow airfield is doomed too. Lerwick and Kirkwall are supposed to be German controlled so evacuating will not be easy.

Morris had just enough MPs to evacuate it to Iceland. I would have loved to kill it though.

[joerock22]

Turn 54 – July 27, 1942

Morris retreats from the forests west of Moscow and sets up a new defense. This withdrawal will save some units and ensure that I can’t easily turn his flank again. But in doing so the Russians surrender many hexes of defensible terrain to the Germans. Morris also abandons several cities—his infantry forces must really be wearing thin with all the casualties they suffered and the massive tank production effort. Soviet tanks are just dead weight at this point; I have not given Morris an opportunity to use them the way he wants to.

This turn we will continue to grind toward Moscow. I expect it should fall in another 2 turns max, perhaps next turn. Then maybe we will have time to deal with the threat of the powerful Red Army in the south…

In England, Morris’s stranded fighter attacks my BB but does not manage to sink it. I believe he could have evacuated the fighter to Keflavik, but I will take the opportunity to knock free steps off with my para while given the opportunity. The main assault on British troops still in Scotland is scheduled to begin next turn. I should not even need air support with enemy supply and morale dropping quickly.

Some nice tank upgrades were researched in the past couple turns: blitzkrieg lv. 3 and armour lv. 2. So my tanks are once again on par with their Russian counterparts. It is clear that Morris has focused his research on tanks, so I will likely never have technological superiority. But organization and air support mean my tanks will win in a head-to-head engagement, at least for the moment. Morris’s early tank research has also come at the expense of other areas. For example, his infantry does not even have fixed defenses lv. 2 yet, which is making this campaign much easier.

I also get industry lv. 4 – PP production is 185 per turn and rising! And oil is up to 61 per turn, which is nice because levels are pretty low right now.

USSR North





USSR South (post-turn only)



Final Tally: 3 corps and 1 garrison destroyed, plus 2 corps cut off. Total value including pocketed units = 190. Not that much, but we are closing in on the Soviet capital! That’s a 15PP per turn swing once it recovers to full production for me.

[Cybvep]

That’s a 15PP per turn swing once it recovers to full production for me.

AFAIK occupied cities give 50% income x war effort. In case of Moscow it will be 10 x 50% x X% (130%?), which will give sth like 6,5-7 PPs per turn, not 15 PPs. However, Morris will lose much more, i.e. 10 PPs x war effort per turn, which means sth like 12-14 PPs lost per turn. Moreover, Morris will lose MP when you take Moscow and if you manage to take Kharkov, he will lose even more. Oh, and you get increased supply range as a bonus. All in all, if you manage to hold the Soviet capital for a year or so, it will make a big dent in Soviet income and give you some extra PPs, too.

If your oil situation was better, you could even think about attacking Stalingrad after Moscow is taken, as Stalingrad will no longer be in the 3-supply zone then. ATM you will probably be better off with abandoning further offensives and creating a solid defensive line, though.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

If Russia researches blitzkrieg then you could focus research on antitank for infantry and tank destroyers for armor. It's not fun having tanks when the enemy has maxed out antitank weapons.