Potzblitz V26.01 OCT 26th 2025

[imp44791]

I haven't had any success replicating what for me is the "best" Italian-as-CP scenario: this means Serbia resisting the ultimatum, but Italy getting roped in by her treaty obligations anyway. Option #2 (failed ultimatum, but Russia goes for quick mobilisation) hasn't come up since that first lucky draw I mentioned a few posts up. And Option #1 is not really to my liking, historically speaking. Let me explain: I like the sequencing diplomatic poker-ultimatum as a prerequisite, but 90% chance of total Serbian surrender is too high. Or rather, the main problem (for me) is not the probability, it is that total surrender is too severe an outcome for the course of the game - a whole front vanishes at a stroke even if Austria gets a big Russian problem straight away.

The board game La Grand Guerre had a close equivalent to this situation which handled things very well: If the "Ultimatum Accepted" event is played by Austria (as in, a compromise is found after Serbia bends to all demands except the "Austrian agents on its soil" one), war still breaks out due to Russian determination not to be humiliated again, but Serbia is divided and less ready at the borders. In game terms for us here that might mean only reserve corps on the border, and/or Putnik only becoming available after a few rounds (to reflect the political divisions). Basically Austria would gain some initial advantage in the Serbian front at the expense of an early Russian entry to the war - plus of course the possibility of Italy coming to its aid as Russia would now appear to be the unreasonable party in the dispute.

Just a thought.

[Robotron]

Just a thought.

Here's another variant, I think it quite elegantly addresses all points although explaining all the outcomes becomes a bit esoteric.

ultimatum.jpg (32.34 KiB) Viewed 618 times

The chance at subduing Serbia at all even if "Diplomatic Poker" was played is now only 25%.

Failing to subdue Serbia now automatically triggers "Rush-mobilize Russian army" so Russia attacks CP on turn 3 if "Austrian Defense Planning" was not played before the ultimatum to Serbia.
Russia attacking CP on turn 3 removes "Italy proclaims neutrality" from the Entente event pool because Russia is seen as the one who escalates a local dispute into a major conflict.

Anyone who did not play "Diplomatic Poker" before will probably outright dismiss "Austrian Ultimatum to Serbia" unless betting on the slim chance to have Russia attack CP on turn 3 and Entente not having played "Italy proclaims neutrality" before.

If failed and CP did successfully play "Diplomatic Poker" before then Entente will have 1 diplomatic point on turn 2 meaning a single chance at playing "Italy proclaims neutrality" before that event gets removed on turn 3 when Russia attacks CP.

If failed and CP did not successfully play "Diplomatic Poker" before then Entente will still have their 3 starting diplomatic points and therefore two chances on turn 1 to draw and play "Italy proclaims neutrality" which is quite likely to happen.



So the optimal way to have a scenario where Serbia is in the war and still get rid of "Italy proclaims neutrality" would be:

- play "Diplomatic Poker" so Entente can't play "Italy proclaims neutrality" as early as turn 1
- play "Ultimatum to Serbia"...and hope to FAIL the 25% success chance roll so Russia attacks CP on turn 3
- Entente has only 1 chance on turn 2 to play "Italy proclaims neutrality"
- Russia attacks CP on turn 3 and "Italy proclaims neutrality" is removed from play

In this case playing "Austrian Defense Planning" or "German Army redeploys" to prevent the effect of "Rush-mobilize Russian army" would actually further sabotage the chance for getting rid of "Italy proclaims neutrality" because no Russian attack on CP would materialize on turn 3.

[Robotron]

ultimatum.jpg (32.34 KiB) Viewed 510 times

Summary:
To remove the "Italy proclaims Neutrality" event while still keeping Serbia in the Entente:

CP must NOT play the "Kaiser's Gold" event
CP must FAIL the "Ultimatum to Serbia" test so Russia attacks on turn 3
Depending on whether "Diplomatic Poker" was played by CP or not, Entente then has either the usual two attempts on turn 1 or one attempt on turn 2 to play "Italy proclaims Neutrality" before it gets removed when Russia attacks on turn 3.

[imp44791]

Thanks. I may have some time today to give this a spin.

[imp44791]

OK, I tested the new event sequence and it works BUT:

In this particular game (always the Historical maximum events scenario) Italy started at 90 friendly. No problem, but I can't invest any diplomatic points to nudge her towards me as I get the error message that she's an ambiguous diplomatic country that will move independently. I think that this functionality should be removed and Italy turned into a conventional country if the "Italy Stays Neutral" event gets invalidated.

I will test some more tonight. The previous days were busier than I thought.

[Robotron]

Okay, I've changed that bit about Italy not being able to be influenced if "Italy stays neutral" was not played.

Find the changes in the attachment.

[imp44791]

Thanks. I will use it in the next restart. I have nonetheless managed to start a save with my ideal Italy-as-CP setup and it's great fun. It's very different - a very European conflict with quite good balance in the first 10 rounds. The early Russian invasion is quite tough for the CP, even with free movement of German troops East. It's only now (late October 14) that I have finally managed to cut their spearheads off next to Danzig, Katowice and Krakow. The Austrians hang on grimly to Przemysl and Lemberg and the tide seems to be slowly turning east.

On the Serbian front it's very slow and costly grinding forward. Finally Belgrade fell on Round 9, so I'm curious to see how the Romanian king will take it. I have enough DPs accumulated so I will try a speculative investment in Romania. The Ottomans are of course now well neutral, even after the "Closed Dardanelles" scenario.

Britain finally got in on Round 9. I ambushed one of the BEF corps with my subs (correctly, I think, the "Britain gets pissed off" event only applies for BBs and BCs in the build queue). I had accumulated enough PPs for the minute of the war declaration to start a heavy duty BB/BC building program. We'll se what/if it yields 12 rounds from now.

The West Front is cracking good fun with the Italians in the south. Germany did not go via Belgium, mostly because the troops were needed East with the early Russian attack. I managed to surprise the French and sneak in a cavalry unit into Verdun after a couple of lucky rolls allowed my units to first retreat a French reserve unit into Verdun, and the the cavalry rushed in to kill it and move the "one victory hex forward" into the city. I am slowly grinding units with artillery support and I should be able to get into Nancy next round unless the RNG thinks otherwise.

The Italians have managed to fight into Nice after the AI stupidly switched the reserve corps with a garrison. Then the road to Toulon was open but the French now have active units in Marseilles and in Savoy so the party is over.

It will be interesting see how the game will proceed with no Mesopotamia and no Egypt, but I am hugely enjoying this 19th Century-style all-European scrap.

[Wolf001]

Thanks for continuing work on this game. I apologize for my very long absence. I just started playing yesterday on my laptop since I upgraded my PC to Linux which needs a little work to make the game run.

[imp44791]

Hm, I think there may be something wrong with the removal of the "Italy stays neutral event". I started a new game where I followed the correct prescription: Diplo Poker + Ultimatum to Serbia (failed). In one case Italy was a bit further away from entry (no problem - I invested diplo points) but the Italy neutrality event started getting played from Turn 4 onwards. I tested with reloading the EndTurnSave (it's not affected by the saving of the random seed like the battles are), and the event occasionally kept popping back well into Turn 10 and beyond.

I tried again now: Diplo Poker + Failed Ultimatum. Next turn Britain delivered the ships to Turkey moving Italy quite close to the CP. Then in Turn 5, with Italy at 0-2 turns to entry on my side... the neutrality event popped up.

I can provide saves if you wish.

[Robotron]

Did you apply the scriptfix I provided in my last post?

If so you should get a popup message on turn 3 when Russia attacks and "Italy stays neutral" is removed.

clipboard.jpg (78.31 KiB) Viewed 107 times

If you got this message and "Italy stays neutral" was NOT removed I'll need the savegame.

[imp44791]

Hm, something may be wrong with my setup. I get the "Russian Army Mobilising" event instead when I get the Diplo Poker-Serbia Ultimatum (fail) sequence, with Russia due to enter in 3 rounds (as normal). Full Russian Mobilisation is also possible in these cases.

I have got the Surprise Attack once, but the sequence above is what I usually get.

I think I will uninstall the mod entirely (I'm using JGSME so I have an image of the vanilla game installation) and then reinstall in sequence again. I will revert.

[imp44791]

Confirmed. Clean mod installation of 26 plus the 12 files in the last attachment above replacing the ones in the mod. Applied via JGSME on a clean game install.

Diplo Poker (result Entente breaking off negotiations) followed by Ultimatum to Serbia (rejected): special event, Russian Army Mobilising (picture of two Russia generals - Nikolasha perhaps? - on their horses in front of a mass of troops). All these in round 1, no attacks or unit moves. So, I can't send you a save since I can't save on Round 1!!!

[imp44791]

Round 2 of same game. Entente plays "Serbia Shall Not Bow" and... "Italy Stays Neutral"!

Baffled. I guess I can redownload the mod entirely and reinstall the game from scratch completely, but I don't have a reliable connection for such a huge download (I'm travelling). I can try from next Tuesday when I'm back home.

[imp44791]

OK reloaded Round 2 from AutoSaveEndTurn to try with a new random seed: Italy Stays Neutral didn't fire. Played "Violations of Neutrality (Lux only)" and "German Army Redeploys", played my Austrian moves in Serbia.

Round 3, Russian Surprise Attack, Italy joins CP.

Perhaps I don't understand your rules?

[Robotron]

Diplo Poker (result Entente breaking off negotiations) followed by Ultimatum to Serbia (rejected): special event, Russian Army Mobilising
Round 2 of same game. Entente plays (...) "Italy Stays Neutral"!
Baffled.

Working as intended: Entente AI still had diplo points because of Diplo Poker failure and used them to play 2 randomly selected events, one of them just happened to be "Italy Stays Neutral" which would otherwise have been discarded on turn 3 when Russia would attack. The chance for this to happen is about 28,57% (draw 2 times from a pool of 7 remaining Entente events).

Even if Diplo Poker was successful then Entente would still have a ca. 17% chance to draw and play "Italy Stays Neutral" on turn 2.
This is just the risk CP has to take when choosing to keep Serbia in Entente and have Italy join CP.

The only way to remove "Italy stays neutral" before Entente has a chance to play it is to succeed with Diplo Poker, then play "Ultimatum to Serbia" (betting on the 25% success chance) and have Russia attack on turn 1.

[imp44791]

OK, thanks for the clarification. It's fine, it makes sense as a sequence.