FOG stats

[paulcummins]

My stats cant cope up with FOG.
While I could work out chances of success in a pairing in DBM and can work on average results in FOG, I cant think of an (easy) apraoch to working out what chance my BG of dailami have of wining a combat against that BG of catalans

I really want to be able to do these estimates in my head- so possibly some short cuts?

any suggestions?

[hammy]

I have an Excel spreadsheet that with a bit of thought can be used to calculate the exact percentages for most basic combat situations. I haven't made it partcularly user friendly though. You are welcome to have a copy.

I did think about trying to do something more complex and easier to use but it gets quite hard.

[madaxeman]

Being a POA up at impact isn't enough to be that confident of winning in the end
Being a POA up in melee is just about enough, ish, sort of, but is still scary
Being up in both is about as good as you are likley to get, but you can still lose often enough for it to sting

Having a 50% advantage in numbers is better than being a POA up.
Having a 2:1 advantage means you will almost certainly win at evens POAs, and probably can overturn being a POA down

If you can restrict your opponents to figting your BGs with only 1 base frontage / 2 dice, the above 2 points swing even more in your favour.

Thats about as scientific as I have managed so far

[hammy]

FWIW I have won relatively comfortably in a combat where my troops were at -- but I did have 2 1/2 to one in numbers, overlaps on both flaunks and my opponent was dissordered. Once I took a base off the 4 base BG of Roman argyraspides the 8 dice at -- seemed more than the equal of the 2 superior dice at ++

[madaxeman]

FWIW I have won relatively comfortably in a combat where my troops were at -- but I did have 2 1/2 to one in numbers, overlaps on both flaunks and my opponent was dissordered. Once I took a base off the 4 base BG of Roman argyraspides the 8 dice at -- seemed more than the equal of the 2 superior dice at ++

FoG is on the side of the Big battallions !

[lawrenceg]

I go on the basis that if the expected number of hits is equal, then you have a bit less than 50% chance of winning the round of combat (it could be a draw).

Beyond that, it becomes very difficult to work out in your head the odds of any particular result because of the large number of dice throws and combinations leading to each possible result.

It is useful to remember that unexpected results are more likely when the total number of dice is less
(e.g. 1 dice at -- vs 2 at ++ has more chance of winning than 3 at -- versus 6 at ++)

Another useful rule of thumb is that a quality level is worth about half a POA in combat, or +1 on a CT/CMT.

There are a few posts on this forum (in rules questions IIRC, dating back to the beta testing phase) where some probabilities are posted.