SP's brand new Handicapping system!

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stockwellpete
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SP's brand new Handicapping system!

Post by stockwellpete »

About a year ago now I suggested a player rating system to pantherboy, who was the organiser of the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (LOEG). And since then, at the end of each tournament, I have calculated players’s rating to reflect their results over the last four seasons of LOEG. The current ratings are here . . .

New LOEG player ratings including the results from Season 7

Please note that these ratings reflect the performance of a player over the last 4 seasons in the competition – that is over Seasons 4,5, 6 and 7 – and that the scores for Season 3 have now dropped out of the calculations. Players need to complete at least 30 LOEG matches to feature in these ratings.

1. pantherboy 9.07
2. ericdoman1 7.96
3. davouthojo 6.84
4. ianiow 6.38
5. hidde 6.11
6. CheAhn 6.07
7. Lysimachos 5.84
8. med 4.96
9. Triarius 4.63
10. dazzam 4.57
11. stockwellpete 4.48
12. batesmotel 4.31
13. nikolax 4.30
14. todd645 4.26
15. claymore 4.25
16. iandavidmith 4.19
17. The Gray Mouser 3.95
18. cavehobbit 3.84
19. cytus 3.72
20. jimcrowley 3.72
21. massina-nz 3.67
22. Steve-h8 3.67
23. Demetrios 3.66
24. Fedem 3.66
25. CharlesRobinson 3.61
26. babyshark 3.59
27. jonno 3.49
28. Morbio 3.36
29. jzimmie 3.19
30. gazxtrix 3.11
31. RussProv 3.08
32. petran1978 3.03
33. razorback77 2.94
34. Finir 2.55
35. CheerfullyInsane 2.36
36. Ironclad 2.32
37. Sailing Guy 2.25
38. jimcdaw 2.24
39. zumheuriger 2.22
40. rexhurley 2.19
41. epos 2.15
42. Archie 2.08
43. Scubaduck 1.64
44. tofman04 1.62
45. Rom1944 1.61
46. mesadon 1.00

Furthermore, over the past six months or so I have been working on developing a handicapping system for FOG that players could use in tournaments or friendly matches if they wanted to. The purpose of the handicap is not only to make competitions “more competitive”, but also to allow new, or less skilful players, to challenge more experienced players and play in a friendly match where they do actually have a chance of getting an exciting game and maybe they will even win once in a while!

The handicap is not actually set at a particularly generous level as we found out recently when I organised two medieval invitation events in which a team of “peasants” played against a team of “nobles”. In the first tournament the handicap was 50 army points in a 500pt DAG match and in the second tournament the handicap was increased to 75pts. In both tournaments, despite the handicap, the nobles emerged as the clear winners.

The two competition threads are here (and the debate gets quite heated at times! :lol: ) . . .

viewtopic.php?f=95&t=32438

viewtopic.php?f=95&t=33161

The results of these matches and others that were played before them suggests to me that the following handicapping system will ensure a much more even game between people of different skill levels.

For players who have a current LOEG rating (see chart above)

A LOEG rating difference of 1.00 between two players is equivalent to 25 army points difference in the DAG in a 500pt match. So the full scale would be -

Less than 1.00 difference = no handicap
1.00 difference = 25 points
2.00 difference = 50pts
3.00 difference = 75pts
4.00 difference = 100pts (maximum)

So to give an example – if I challenge my good friend Anders (hidde) to a handicapped game at 500pts we would first of all look at our LOEG rating. Mine is 4.48 and his is 6.11 so the difference between us is 1.63. The nearest point on the handicap scale is therefore at 2.00 so the handicap should be 50pts.

And if you are playing a sequence of games against the same opponent like this then you can adjust the handicap by +10 or –10 depending on the result of your last game. So if I beat Anders in the first game, the handicap would be reduced to 40pts for the next game, but if he beat me in the first game then the handicap would increase by +10 to 60pts. In this way two players of differing skill levels should be able to play a more even series of matches against each other than would be possible without the handicap. It is also my view that you can learn much more from playing a better player if you can stay in the game longer - and obviously the handicap will help you do this.

Obviously these values will need to be adjusted proportionately if the armies are significantly larger or smaller than 500pts.

For example, a 600pt army scale would be . . .

1.00 difference = 30points
2.00 difference = 60pts
3.00 difference = 90pts
4.00 difference = 120pts (maximum)

or a 400pt scale would be . . .

1.00 difference = 20points
2.00 difference = 40pts
3.00 difference = 60pts
4.00 difference = 80pts (maximum)

Some questions that might arise.

What do I do if I do not enter LOEG and therefore do not have a rating?

Just look at the chart and see if some of your regular opponents are there. If they are, just be honest about your own skill level in relation to theirs and you can give yourself a "provisional" rating that is about right. For example, say you play regularly against me and beat me 2 times out of 3 on average, but the games are generally quite close - my rating is 4.48 so you might surmise that your rating would roughly be about 4.75, something like that anyway.

What if I am a relatively new player to FOG?

I would suggest that for the time being you assume a default LOEG rating of 2.00 so that you can begin to use the handicap if you want to.

A final word from me.

If you really don’t like the idea of using a handicapping system then you don’t have to - this is just for those that do. :wink:
FedeM
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Re: SP's brand new Handicapping system!

Post by FedeM »

Hi Pete. Thanks for that.

As I do not recall I'm asking: Winning a match on the A division gives you more points than winning on B or C Division?

Tks!
stockwellpete
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Re: SP's brand new Handicapping system!

Post by stockwellpete »

Fedem wrote:Hi Pete. Thanks for that.

As I do not recall I'm asking: Winning a match on the A division gives you more points than winning on B or C Division?

Tks!
Yes, for working out the LOEG rating it does. 10pts for a win in Div A, 8pts for a win in Div B, 6pts for a win in Div C; draws get 5pts, 4pts and 3pts respectively. :wink:
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Re: SP's brand new Handicapping system!

Post by FedeM »

Great! Tks!
Sharkall
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Re: SP's brand new Handicapping system!

Post by Sharkall »

Hey Pete !
I am very busy with my dissertation right now (draft due in 3 weeks), but when I'll finish and have lots of free time, I'd like to help you / try a rating system of my own. As in build a computer program and make it available online or something. My masters dissertation (can find it here http://homepages.inf.ed.ac.uk/imurray2/ ... cu_msc.pdf ) last year was about rating systems, and how to build an artificial intelligence framework that can infer the skill of the players based upon their performances/matches. I'm positive I can come up with an improvement (you usually can compare rating systems by predicting who wins in some unknown matches, and I could for example run my system on the same data as you did, and then test the two by making them predict the matches from the temporary league - supposing we'll have a lot of results by 1st of june ).

I just want to make use of what I studied, and I'm also curious about the results I'd obtain and how different will be from yours :)

Note: I see you treat the divisions differently (I'm not sure about if it's useful or not), but I'm guessing here that knowing who chose the map would be a more informative factor. Especially with the better players. Could we try to record that as well, along the number of BP's in the upcoming competition ? I think it'd be useful.
stockwellpete
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Re: SP's brand new Handicapping system!

Post by stockwellpete »

Sharkall wrote:Hey Pete !
I am very busy with my dissertation right now (draft due in 3 weeks), but when I'll finish and have lots of free time, I'd like to help you / try a rating system of my own. As in build a computer program and make it available online or something. My masters dissertation (can find it here http://homepages.inf.ed.ac.uk/imurray2/ ... cu_msc.pdf ) last year was about rating systems, and how to build an artificial intelligence framework that can infer the skill of the players based upon their performances/matches. I'm positive I can come up with an improvement (you usually can compare rating systems by predicting who wins in some unknown matches, and I could for example run my system on the same data as you did, and then test the two by making them predict the matches from the temporary league - supposing we'll have a lot of results by 1st of june ).

I just want to make use of what I studied, and I'm also curious about the results I'd obtain and how different will be from yours :)

Note: I see you treat the divisions differently (I'm not sure about if it's useful or not), but I'm guessing here that knowing who chose the map would be a more informative factor. Especially with the better players. Could we try to record that as well, along the number of BP's in the upcoming competition ? I think it'd be useful.
OK then. I am not claiming that my system is scientific or anything - but it does provide a basic measure of performance over the last year in the main league competition that we run here (LOEG/Temporary League). The reason for getting more points for a win in the higher divisions is because the matches are tougher there. I don't think we can record map choices or BP numbers in the new tournament though - it is not something that I am prepared to do anyway. :wink:
Sharkall
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Re: SP's brand new Handicapping system!

Post by Sharkall »

stockwellpete wrote:I don't think we can record map choices or BP numbers in the new tournament though - it is not something that I am prepared to do anyway. :wink:
I wasn't thinking about map CHOICES, but only who chose the map (he's bound to have some advantage). Something like instead of

Division A
pantherboy (Later Seleucid) (25/23) vs CharlesRobinson (Late Republican Roman) (14/23) use


Division A
pantherboy (Later Seleucid) (25/23) initiative vs CharlesRobinson (Late Republican Roman) (14/23)
stockwellpete
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Re: SP's brand new Handicapping system!

Post by stockwellpete »

Sharkall wrote: I wasn't thinking about map CHOICES, but only who chose the map (he's bound to have some advantage). Something like instead of

Division A
pantherboy (Later Seleucid) (25/23) vs CharlesRobinson (Late Republican Roman) (14/23) use


Division A
pantherboy (Later Seleucid) (25/23) initiative vs CharlesRobinson (Late Republican Roman) (14/23)
Yes, I understood your point, Sharkall. Be my guest if you want to collate that sort of information. :wink:
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