Plan Z revised - Game stopped!

[zechi]

Turn 1 - Fall Weiß

As my game with KingHunter was aborted I will start a new AAR with the latest GS 2.00 version (2.00q). I already played two games against Leridano as the Allies. The first one I won and the second game was aborted to begin a new game with the newest 2.00 version.

Germany launches Fall Weiß and the Wehrmacht moves into Poland. A Panzer Corps reaches Warsaw and normally it should fall next turn:



As in my game with KingHunter I will go for an early Operation Weserübung and attack Denmark and Norway in 1939. I railed both western INF to Wilhelmshaven and the northern MECH from the east to Kiel for Operation Weserübung. I also bought an Air lab.

[zechi]

Turn 2 - Poland surrenders! Unternehmen Weserübung launched!

Warsaw is captured easily by the Wehrmacht this turn. Supported by the Kriegsmarine and Luftwaffe a German MECH attacks Copenhague and troop transports move towards Oslo. Unternehmen Weserübung is launched:



Everything will depend on the weather. I need fair weather in the Central Europe weather zone for the landings near Oslo. There is a 75 % chance that the weather will be fair on the next two October turns. In November its only a 25 % chance. One fair weather turn in October is more then likely. Nevertheless, bad weather could slow my offensive down.

[zechi]

Turn 3 - Wehrmacht lands near Oslo! Denmark surrenders!

The weather is fair in the central Europe weather zone but its Winter in the northern weather zone. Nevertheless, this allows me to land the two INF near Oslo:



A German TAC is also brought into position to bombard Oslo next turn. Copenhague is captured after attacks by a BB, FTR, TAC, MECH and INF. Next turn I still have 75 % chance of fair weather in central Europe, which would be important for bombarding Oslo. If weather stays fair I will also attack the Netherlands as I railed more units to the west.

[zechi]

Turn 4 - Attack on Oslo begins! Netherlands invaded!

The weather is fair in all three weather zones and the Wehrmacht attacks into the Netherlands:



Arnhem is captured and a Panzer Corps reaches the outskirts of Hague. Next turn two German FTR and the Bismarck will aid with the attack on the Hague as both TACs are needed for capturing Oslo.

In Norway the two German INF reach Oslo and begin their attack supported by a TAC. The Oslo GAR is down to 5 steps:



Next turn there is only a 25 % chance that the weather will stay fair. Nevertheless, I hope at least for winter weather and no mud.

[zechi]

Turn 5 - Norway surrenders! The Hague under pressure!

I got very lucky with the weather this turn as it stays fair in all three weather zones in November (only a 25 % chance). With support of the Luftwaffe the two German INF capture Oslo and Norway surrenders:



The fair weather also allows an attack on The Hague with two FTR, the Bismarck and three ground units:



Nevertheless, the defenders of The Hague survive with 2 steps. However, next turn I should be able to finish them off.

Really a perfect start for the Axis with five starting turns of fair weather!

[zechi]

Turn 6 - Winter comes to Europe! Netherlands surrenders!

The RN and the French navy bombard my exposed Panzer Corps and inflict 2 steps of damage. Nevertheless, I can attack The Hague with three ground units, one FTR and the Bismarck. The INF defending the capital is destroyed and my last objective before my attack on Belgium and France is captured:



I have to say that this start was exceptional good for the Axis. One turn of bad weather and Norway and Holland could have taken me well into 1940. Furthermore, Leridano missed a chance to capture at least one city in Norway.

I built four labs, a TAC and a FTR. The TAC will be ready next turn.

[rkr1958]

I have to say that that is a very bold and impressive start. There was a 5% chance that you would have had to abort your invasion of Norway if you had gotten bad weather in both October turns and in the November turn (25% x 25% x 75% = 4.69%). It'll be interesting to see your Case Yellow.

[zechi]

Turn 7 - Sitzkrieg begins

I begin with preparations for Fall Gelb (case yellow) and move my units into position. The French Navy ran into a SUB for minor damage, but they were not able to block the Bismarck which escapes to Wilhelmshaven.



I also spot a BEF transport in the channel. It will be interesting to see how Leridano intends to defend against my attack on Belgium and France. Currently in the Beta tester team we are discussing if with a massive BEF commitment the Fall of France can be delayed until late 1940 or even spring 1941. I suspect that Victor will try to do exactly this and commit a sizeable BEF force to France.

[zechi]

I have to say that that is a very bold and impressive start. There was a 5% chance that you would have had to abort your invasion of Norway if you had gotten bad weather in both October turns and in the November turn (25% x 25% x 75% = 4.69%). It'll be interesting to see your Case Yellow.

I got really lucky with the weather otherwise Norway and or Holland will not fall in 2 turns, but rather 3-4 turns and with some mud perhaps even hold out longer. Nevertheless, I think that the strategy to capture Norway in 1939 is not very risky, because you have to get really unlucky to not be able to land in Norway on one of the October turns.

[rkr1958]

I have to say that that is a very bold and impressive start. There was a 5% chance that you would have had to abort your invasion of Norway if you had gotten bad weather in both October turns and in the November turn (25% x 25% x 75% = 4.69%). It'll be interesting to see your Case Yellow.

I got really lucky with the weather otherwise Norway and or Holland will not fall in 2 turns, but rather 3-4 turns and with some mud perhaps even hold out longer. Nevertheless, I think that the strategy to capture Norway in 1939 is not very risky, because you have to get really unlucky to not be able to land in Norway on one of the October turns.

Don't forget about the November turn too. Even if you get extremely unlucky with the weather for both October turns you still have a 25% chance of fair weather in the November. Thus, the probability (or chance) that you can't land in Norway in 1939 is the product of the probabilities (or chance) that you get bad weather (i.e., mud or winter) is both October turns and the November turn, which is 25% x 25% x 75% = 4.69% or the 5% chance you'll have to abort the invasion of Norway. That's 1 in 20 which is small but possible.

[zechi]

Turn 8 - Sitzkrieg continues

I continue with my preparations for Fall Gelb. A French BB runs into a SUB for minor damage.



As you see Rundstedts command range is good enough to cover all important units for case yellow. However, I will need another turn for repairs, a Paratrooper update and a placement of a third FTR to be in a perfect attack position.

[zechi]

Turn 9 - Even more Sitzkrieg!

Damn it! Its fair weather on the first February turn, but my Army is not fully ready so I have to delay the attack on Belgium/France. I repair all damaged units and train a GAR to 1st Fallschirmjäger:



I also place my third FTR and sink a French BB with the Bismarck attacking from the port in Wilhelmshaven.

In the Atlantic one SUB spots a transport which is attacked by a sceond SUB. There is also a convoy:



If I have fair weather next turn Fall Gelb will be launched as everything is ready.

[zechi]

Turn 10 - Mud in Europe

Perhaps it was good that I did not launch Fall Gelb last turn, because now the weather is muddy. The French SUB attacks the Bismarck in its port in Wilhelmshaven:



Next turn there is 75 % chance of fair weather and the chances are good that Case Yellow will finally begin.

[afk_nero]

Your opponent seems to be abandoning the maginot early. Interesting.

[zechi]

Turn 11 - Fall Gelb launched! Germany Blitz over Belgium! Lille captured by Axis forces!

As hoped it is fair weather in central Europe and Case Yellow is launched. First a Luftwaffe FTR and STR tested if the French/British FTR are protecting the Belgian air space. As I did not get any interceptions I attacked at will with the whole Luftwaffe and easily captured all three Belgian cities without any significant losses (only a TAC was unlucky with a 0:1 result on Brussels).



German High Command was then very surprised to see that the British/French defensive line was farther south then suspected and only a rearguard was protecting Lille. As a Panzer Corps, a MECH and an INF could reach it, German High Command ordered an attack without air cover (did not get any air attacks left). MECH attacked first with 6:3 predicted an a 4:1 result. Then the Panzer Corps attacked for a whopping 6:0 result, so the INF was not needed and it could not enter the city.

However, my ARM is now exposed. In a city it is more vulnerable and the Luftwaffe FTR do not protect it, so perhaps this move was an error. My only hope is that Leridano will not leave his defensive positions and the 20 % effectivness loss. As a new feature also the French/British units stationed in Britain are affected by the morale loss. I never got the the three Belgian cities and Lille in one turn until now.

There is a sizeable BEF protecting the western section of the front and all the French units will be near Paris. Will be interesting how Leridano will react. My next target will be Lorraine and cutting off the Maginot line. Then I will go for the breakthrough to Paris. The BEF will be ignored if possible.

[Plaid]

Being in a city is not this bad for an armour unit. Despite some armour penalty, city still provides normal defence bonus and protects you from strategic bomber attack (bomber will target industry instead).

If allies go for all-out counterattack you will have good opportunity to kill lots of them at once.

[zechi]

Turn 12 - Wehrmacht captures Lorraine!

No counterattack by the French/British Army! This is the situation at the beginning of my turn:



Some units are leaving the Maginot line, but I have no INF there to move into the holes. My target is Lorraine as it is worth 5 PP and can be captured easier then a city as max entrenchment is only 2. Two TAC bombard the hex and then I attack with ground units forcing a retreat toward the German frontline. I also use this tactic with two exposed French GAR which all are destroyed:



Still no sign of the RAF. Leridano seems ot wait that their effectivness gets higher again. I rail/move my Luftwaffe FTR in better positions to protect my offensive. Next turn I will try to capture Reims which should be easy with two TAC and three ground units. Secondary goal is the GAR south of Lorrain which I hope to force a retreat and then push a wedge through the Maginot line and the western British/French units.

In the Atlantic I spot a fat 40 PP convoy and attack it: My other Wolfpacks also move into position:



I have three other SUBs in the building queue.

[zechi]

Turn 13 - German Corps destroyed! Wehrmacht captures Reims and French Army takes heavy losses!

The French launch a successful counterattack with support of the RAF and manage to destroy a German INF. The Maginot line begins to disintegrate. Situation at the beginning of my turn:



The counterattack of the Wehrmacht destroys two French GAR and the INF in Reims. The French ARM is down to 2 steps:



Now I will fight my way through to Paris.

In the Atlantic two SUB attack the convoy. At the end of the turn the convoy runs into my third SUB. Next turn I will attack it again with three SUBs.

[zechi]

Turn 14 - French take heavy losses! Strasbourg captured by Wehrmacht! Italy enters the war!

The Wehrmacht now turns towards Paris and destroys the French ARM and another INF. A GAR is also nearly destroyed and the Armee de L'Air takes heavy losses after a FTR and Panzer attack:



Strasbourg was not defended and is captured by the Wehrmacht.

In the Atlantic the fat 40+ convoy is reduced to 2 PP:



Last but not least Italy enters the war:



Next turn I will try to reach the outskirts of Paris.

[zechi]

Turn 15 - Wehrmacht reaches outskirts of Paris!

A little bit in a hurry, so only some short comments. With carefully forcing retreats Wehrmacht reaches outskirts of Paris in the SW of the city:



Italian units are moved towards the frontline (Reagia Aeronautica) and will be able to bomb Paris next turn. Near Bergen a German SUB ambushes a British BB for 2 steps of damage to the BB and none to the SUB.