Statistical Analysis

[ravenflight]

Hi All,

Anyone can do a quick analysis of Bushi with Followers vs Superior Legionaries in brush? I'm not good at Stats, so I'll give my low down, and anyone else can help I'd appreciate it:
1 - MF/Armoured/Undrilled/Average/Bw*/Heavy Weapon
2 - HF/Armoured/Drilled/Superior/-/Impact Foot/Skilled Sword

Assuming 3 files to get the number of dice right.

On Impact:
Bushi get 6 dice - (averaging 2 hits)
Romans get 4 dice + (averaging 2 dice with rerolls upping the average slightly)

In Melee:
Bushi get 6 dice - (averating 2 hits)
Romans get 4 dice + (averating 2 hits with rerolls upping the average slightly)

Does this seem right?

You really wanna get the terrain when skilled swordsmen are around don't you

[chrisrivers]

That is correct, but I would think you would have an advantage elsewhere since the costs are significantly different. (The Bushi are 60 pts, the legionaries are 84 pts.)

Chris R.

[ravenflight]

That is correct, but I would think you would have an advantage elsewhere since the costs are significantly different. (The Bushi are 60 pts, the legionaries are 84 pts.)

Chris R.

Yes, but I feel that the 'advantage elsewhere' is going to be gobbled up by severely outnumbered Legions cutting through 'Bushi and Followers in the open' like they aren't there.

Advantaged in Impact and Melee -1 to tests both times, and rerolls of 1's... ouch!

[Irmin]

3 uBGS of Legionaries = 4 BGs of Bushi, surely there must be a flank open somewhere to even the odds up.

[ethan]

Combat in FoG is fairly non-linear in the advantages wrt outcomes. It is usual to do an "expected hits per frontage" calculation to figure out who has an advantage, but the extent of that advantage is not easy to infer from the expected numbers of hits. Why? Because there is a huge bonus for winning in terms of casaulties and morale tests, so what you really want to know is "what % of the time does X win the combat?" So one thing to do is to simulate the combat (doing the exact probabilities is difficult) to give you a feel, it is pretty easy to set up in say Excel which I have doing lately and I am often surprised how much small differences in combat advantages turn into in outcomes.