ethan wrote:Let's assume an 8 base pike unit is coming at these guys with 4 samurai types firing at them (yes either side could engineer better or worse scenarios, but this is the baselien).
The Samurai will get 3 shots (they move into effective range and shoot, the pikes move up get shot at, the Samurai shoot in their turn, the pikes charge).
Each shot is 2 dice needing 4s to hit, so every round of shooting has a 1 in 4 chance of causing a test.
Let's assume the pike havea +1 general in range for the morale test, so will be on a 6 or better, so 26 in 36.
So every round of shooting has a 1/4*10/36 chance of disrupting the pike, about 7%.
So 93% chance each shot the pike remain in good order, 3 shots so .93^3 = 85% chance the pike charge in good order.
Seems pretty good odds for the pike.
I think that's an overly simplistic way of looking at it. Sure, it's a statistical way of looking at it, but in my experience stats have pretty much nothing to do with it.
Firstly, there are more shots than you've allocated.
1 - the Samurai move to 6" (first round of shooting)
2 - the Pike move to 3" (second round of shooting)
3 - the Samurai stay still (third round of shooting)
4 - the pike charge
- or -
1 - the Samurai stop at 8" (no shooting)
2 - the pike move to 5" (first round of shooting)
3 - the Samurai stay still (second round of shooting)
4 - the Pike move to 2" (third round of shooting)
5 - the Samurai stay still (fourth round of shooting)
6 - the Pike charge.
My point is that the decision to move into range is with the Samurai. The pike may feel compelled to move into range BECAUSE if they don't the Samurai are going to win elsewhere. It isn't as simple as 'move up and shoot'.
Secondly, this is an average over an incredible number of dice.
Thirdly, you didn't take into account the loss of an element (which indeed is only 1:6 for every 3 hits, but is still something that CAN happen and hurts the pike badly).
Fourthly, even if they DO manage to withstand the shooting they are STILL not exactly 'sitting pretty'. I'll happily put my Huscarls up against Pike (sure, they are Superior instead of Average, but there is a lot more Samurai than there are Huscarls).
In the end, I think the proof will be in the pudding.
Ian