Disorder effect on close combat win, draw, loss probabilities?

[kronenblatt]

Is there anywhere on this forum discussions can be found regarding how the Moderately Disordered (-22%) and Severely Disordered (-44%) affect the win, draw and loss probabilities for close combat (both impact and melee)? In particular when both own and enemy unit have these modifiers.

Or does anyone have some views on these effects, that can be shared here, in this thread?

[Swuul]

Check the manual, pages 80-82.

Ie there is no short answer to your question, it depends who is fighting what and where, is it impact or normal melee.

[kronenblatt]

Check the manual, pages 80-82.

Ie there is no short answer to your question, it depends who is fighting what and where, is it impact or normal melee.

Have read the manual: unfortunarely too general, for my taste.

Is there a long answer to my question?

Or an old thread about this?

[Swuul]

Check the manual, pages 80-82.

Ie there is no short answer to your question, it depends who is fighting what and where, is it impact or normal melee.

Have read the manual: unfortunarely too general, for my taste.

Is there a long answer to my question?

Or an old thread about this?

You are of course free to make a chart of all possible combinations to get the percentages. Things you needs to take into account:

Impact or not
number of combatants for each unit
obstacle or not
unit class for both units involved (and if horses involved, terrain of both)
weapons for both units involved
quality of both units involved
armour class of both units involved
general present or not
the level of disorder of both units

That will be a six dimension chart btw (EDIT: actually, it will be a seven dimension chart, I always get confused beyond the fourth dimension is applied), hopefully that is not too general for your taste

Plug in the numbers, and you can alter the disorder level of either unit to get the percentage change.


EDIT 2: Actually, somebody with too much time at their hand could write an app like the Samba calculator for Blood Bowl, though there would have to be many more variables (as FoG2 has quite a bit more complicated propabilites than Blood Bowl). If you are not familiar with the Samba calculator for Blood Bowl, you can check it at: http://www.elyoukey.com/sac/

[kronenblatt]

Check the manual, pages 80-82.

Ie there is no short answer to your question, it depends who is fighting what and where, is it impact or normal melee.

Have read the manual: unfortunarely too general, for my taste.

Is there a long answer to my question?

Or an old thread about this?

You are of course free to make a chart of all possible combinations to get the percentages. Things you needs to take into account:

Impact or not
number of combatants for each unit
obstacle or not
unit class for both units involved (and if horses involved, terrain of both)
weapons for both units involved
quality of both units involved
armour class of both units involved
general present or not
the level of disorder of both units

That will be a six dimension chart btw (EDIT: actually, it will be a seven dimension chart, I always get confused beyond the fourth dimension is applied), hopefully that is not too general for your taste

Plug in the numbers, and you can alter the disorder level of either unit to get the percentage change.


EDIT 2: Actually, somebody with too much time at their hand could write an app like the Samba calculator for Blood Bowl, though there would have to be many more variables (as FoG2 has quite a bit more complicated propabilites than Blood Bowl). If you are not familiar with the Samba calculator for Blood Bowl, you can check it at: http://www.elyoukey.com/sac/

I'm a little ashamed, but I've already started doing some of that.

So currently I'm specifically interested in how Disorder (and Cohesion) percentages affect the win, draw, and loss probabilities, given a certain PoA modifier. But maybe it's not attainable?

[Swuul]

So currently I'm specifically interested in how Disorder (and Cohesion) percentages affect the win, draw, and loss probabilities, given a certain PoA modifier. But maybe it's not attainable?

It is impossible to give one percentage which covers all situations. In the words of Einstein: "Everything is relative".

A couple examples:

1) A partially armoured below average spear cavalry charging a superior offensive spear armoured medium foot with a general in rough behind an obstacle -> the difference is minimal whether the infantry is steady or disrupted.

2) A fully armoured elite cataphract in good going with lance and sword charging in the flank of an un-engaged average pike partially protected heavy foot who has lost 25% of their men -> there is a massive difference whether the foot is dirupted or not

[kronenblatt]

So currently I'm specifically interested in how Disorder (and Cohesion) percentages affect the win, draw, and loss probabilities, given a certain PoA modifier. But maybe it's not attainable?

It is impossible to give one percentage which covers all situations. In the words of Einstein: "Everything is relative".

A couple examples:

1) A partially armoured below average spear cavalry charging a superior offensive spear armoured medium foot with a general in rough behind an obstacle -> the difference is minimal whether the infantry is steady or disrupted.

2) A fully armoured elite cataphract in good going with lance and sword charging in the flank of an un-engaged average pike partially protected heavy foot who has lost 25% of their men -> there is a massive difference whether the foot is dirupted or not

It's not the exact percentage I'm after; I'm interested in understanding (barring your extreme examples) how the Disorder (and Cohesion) percentages affect and get distributed between win, draw, and loss percentages. Basically the rough calculation rules behind it.

For example, in Michael Chung's Field of Glory Beginner's Guide Part 3, a number of situations are presented, with the difference being Impact PoA and Disorder percentages. Given a certain PoA Modifier, what is the mechanics behind how he Disorder percentage affects the win, draw, and loss probabilities? And are the mechanics the same whether one or both units suffer Disorder?

These are the dynamics I'm trying to understand quantitatively, if at all possible. Roughly, of course, keeping in mind inter alia that win, draw, and loss probabilities are not really analytically derived but obtained through iterations.

[rbodleyscott]

The actual modifiers for Disorder etc. are specified in the detailed tooltips. However, the base "damage" (an internal value) is modified first by the Combat Strength modifier, then by the Disorder modifier, and finally by the POA modifier.

Because they are applied at an earlier stage in the combat calculation process, the combat strength and disorder modifiers may have somewhat more or less effect than the same % POA modifier, because the absolute effect of each modifier depends on how far the previous interim value deviates from 100% of the base "damage".

[kronenblatt]

The actual modifiers for Disorder etc. are specified in the detailed tooltips. However, the base "damage" (an internal value) is modified first by the Combat Strength modifier, then by the Disorder modifier, and finally by the POA modifier.

Because they are applied at an earlier stage in the combat calculation process, the combat strength and disorder modifiers may have somewhat more or less effect than the same % POA modifier, because the absolute effect of each modifier depends on how far the previous interrim value deviates from 100% of the base "damage".

Many thanks: that was really useful. And each unit in the close combat then gets its own "damage" value, originating from the (same?) base "damage" value? (You'll hate me for saying this, but the "base" damage value that results in the "base" 14-72-14 win-draw-loss probabilities? )

[rbodleyscott]

The actual modifiers for Disorder etc. are specified in the detailed tooltips. However, the base "damage" (an internal value) is modified first by the Combat Strength modifier, then by the Disorder modifier, and finally by the POA modifier.

Because they are applied at an earlier stage in the combat calculation process, the combat strength and disorder modifiers may have somewhat more or less effect than the same % POA modifier, because the absolute effect of each modifier depends on how far the previous interrim value deviates from 100% of the base "damage".

Many thanks: that was really useful. And each unit in the close combat then gets its own "damage" value, originating from the (same?) base "damage" value? (You'll hate me for saying this, but the "base" damage value that results in the "base" 14-72-14 win-draw-loss probabilities? )

50

Well you did ask.

It is an internal value, used to determine which side has the upper hand. It does not directly correspond to casualties or anything else concrete.

If you are really interested, see the ModifiedCloseCombatDamage() function in CloseCombatLogic.BSF

[DanZanzibar]

I usually convert these % based modifiers to a comparable POA (I think every 33% is about 50 POA but I would have to check that out when I’m back to my laptop). Then if you’re already used to going from net POA to combat probabilities, it gives a useful rough estimation. Hope this helps.

[kronenblatt]

The actual modifiers for Disorder etc. are specified in the detailed tooltips. However, the base "damage" (an internal value) is modified first by the Combat Strength modifier, then by the Disorder modifier, and finally by the POA modifier.

Because they are applied at an earlier stage in the combat calculation process, the combat strength and disorder modifiers may have somewhat more or less effect than the same % POA modifier, because the absolute effect of each modifier depends on how far the previous interrim value deviates from 100% of the base "damage".

Many thanks: that was really useful. And each unit in the close combat then gets its own "damage" value, originating from the (same?) base "damage" value? (You'll hate me for saying this, but the "base" damage value that results in the "base" 14-72-14 win-draw-loss probabilities? )

50

Well you did ask.

It is an internal value, used to determine which side has the upper hand. It does not directly correspond to casualties or anything else concrete.

If you are really interested, see the ModifiedCloseCombatDamage() function in CloseCombatLogic.BSF

Many thanks RBS! Have now looked into the CloseCombatLogic file, as well as CombatTools and Tools (for the random stuff). And I'm slowly getting there, having a simple Excel sheet in place that roughly works and getting win-draw-loss probabilities that are not too far off from what I see in an actual game, given the same assumptions/circumstancess applied.

But the Combat Strength is rather complicated with the cavalry adjustment (of +33%), the adjustment due to facing multiple opponents, and there also seems to be some cap for infantry and cavalry on which size can be applied (?) (row 1116 of CombatTools; "... foot get maximum 600 UnitSize worth of men on any one enemy, mounted get 400...") And more...

EDIT: What is for example the attribute UnitSize in the scripts? How does UnitSize differ from the attribute TotalMen, which I reckon is the current number of men in the unit (say 396 men)?

[rbodleyscott]

But the Combat Strength is rather complicated with the cavalry adjustment (of +33%), the adjustment due to facing multiple opponents, and there also seems to be some cap for infantry and cavalry on which size can be applied (?) (row 1116 of CombatTools; "... foot get maximum 600 UnitSize worth of men on any one enemy, mounted get 400...")

Yep

[kronenblatt]

But the Combat Strength is rather complicated with the cavalry adjustment (of +33%), the adjustment due to facing multiple opponents, and there also seems to be some cap for infantry and cavalry on which size can be applied (?) (row 1116 of CombatTools; "... foot get maximum 600 UnitSize worth of men on any one enemy, mounted get 400...")

Yep

And what is for example the attribute UnitSize in the scripts? How does UnitSize differ from the attribute TotalMen, which I reckon is the current number of men in the unit (say 396 men)?

(Please tell me when I'm asking too many questions... )

[rbodleyscott]

But the Combat Strength is rather complicated with the cavalry adjustment (of +33%), the adjustment due to facing multiple opponents, and there also seems to be some cap for infantry and cavalry on which size can be applied (?) (row 1116 of CombatTools; "... foot get maximum 600 UnitSize worth of men on any one enemy, mounted get 400...")

Yep

And what is for example the attribute UnitSize in the scripts? How does UnitSize differ from the attribute TotalMen, which I reckon is the current number of men in the unit (say 396 men)?

UnitSize is the internal representation of the size of the unit. It corresponds to the number of bases in a tabletop FOG unit x 100.

All of the Close Combat Strength and Shooting mechanisms work off UnitSize rather than TotalMen.

So you can ignore the "cavalry adjustment (of +33%)" because that is already taken into account in the UnitSize of Cavalry units. i.e. 100 UnitSize = 80 men for infantry units, 60 men for cavalry units.

(Please tell me when I'm asking too many questions... )

Errm.

[kronenblatt]

Yep

And what is for example the attribute UnitSize in the scripts? How does UnitSize differ from the attribute TotalMen, which I reckon is the current number of men in the unit (say 396 men)?

UnitSize is the internal representation of the size of the unit. It corresponds to the number of bases in a tabletop FOG unit x 100.

All of the Close Combat Strength and Shooting mechanisms work off UnitSize rather than TotalMen.

So you can ignore the "cavalry adjustment (of +33%)" because that is already taken into account in the UnitSize of Cavalry units. i.e. 100 UnitSize = 80 men for infantry units, 60 men for cavalry units.

(Please tell me when I'm asking too many questions... )

Errm.

Excellent, then you won't need to worry about me, because it seems I'm finally done and got a small functioning spreadsheet for calculating rough win-draw-loss probabilities. Can send it to you if you'd like to.

[DanZanzibar]

I’ll take it!

[kronenblatt]

I’ll take it!

Sure, I'll send you a PM so that you can try it out and give me your thoughts.

[kronenblatt]

This is how it looks:

win-draw-loss.jpg (145.79 KiB) Viewed 3026 times

[DanZanzibar]

Looks very well done.