Stategies for a German turtle

[jarg1]

Can it be prevented and if so how?

1) One strategy I've used and seen mentioned elsewhere is to bait the German player. In other words, intentionally leave open or weakly defended positions adjacent to the Meuse. There are some big potential problems with this strategy. For one,this doesn't actually prevent a turtle, but if the German goes for it this does release the British early, strengthening the counterattack. Of course the biggest problem is that the German may well succeed in crossing the Meuse, or bottling the Allies up behind it.

2) Get a strong force into Werbomont, Manhay, Trois Point or Houffalize to prevent a German line from forming. This is only possible if the German has a very slow start, since the Allies usually don't have enough units to create this force before the 18th without exposing Verviers. I have good results with this if the German decides to try to make a lot of early kills instead of pushing forward.

[wargamer11]

Thanks for starting this Jarg!

For my initial contribution, I'd like to consider a hypothetical that builds on your #2 above ...

Let's say you somehow knew at the start that no matter what you do as the Allied player, the German player was going to employ a "No Meuse" strategy. You don't have to worry about the German auto win, or a Meuse crossing (or even touching) at any time.

You know at game start that the German player is simply going to try to gather as many vp spots away from the Meuse as possible, kill as many American units as possible, and then turtle up for the eventual VP win. How would this certain knowledge alter your early Allied game play from a situation where your opponent's strategy is unknown.

Given this knowledge, you'd be placed in the best possible position to prevent the turtle from being formed. Is it possible (assuming average luck levels and otherwise solid opponent skill level).

If we then agree that yes, given perfect knowledge of a "No Meuse"/turtling strategy, we can, in most situations, prevent the turtle and win the game, we can then try to work back toward resisting a run toward the auto win, while still sticking a monkey wrench in the turtle using as many tactics formed in the hypothetical as possible.

In essence, can we have our cake and eat it too?

[Yojimbo252]

1) One strategy I've used and seen mentioned elsewhere is to bait the German player. In other words, intentionally leave open or weakly defended positions adjacent to the Meuse. There are some big potential problems with this strategy. For one,this doesn't actually prevent a turtle, but if the German goes for it this does release the British early, strengthening the counterattack. Of course the biggest problem is that the German may well succeed in crossing the Meuse, or bottling the Allies up behind it.

I've used and discussed this previously and your summations are correct. It relies on the Axis player 'taking the bait'. If they choose not to, you as the Allies unfortunately find yourself in the same predicament.

Additionally on one occassion it has backfired spectacularly on me where the Axis received a fortunate combat result and broke through for an automatic victory on the 19th.

I don't view this as a valid counter strategy as it is dependent on the Axis player choosing to go for the Meuse. If they choose not to, it's thwarted.

2) Get a strong force into Werbomont, Manhay, Trois Point or Houffalize to prevent a German line from forming. This is only possible if the German has a very slow start, since the Allies usually don't have enough units to create this force before the 18th without exposing Verviers. I have good results with this if the German decides to try to make a lot of early kills instead of pushing forward.

Firstly Werbomont and Manhay are of less consequence. The Axis can put up a very formidable defence along the Trois Ponts, Houffalize and Bastogne line alone.

But in any case, denying the Axis Werbomont, Manhay, Trois Point or Houffalize is very difficult to achieve given the Axis superiority during the first half of the game. If the Axis are determined to pursue an Axis defensive strategy and forgo any meaningful commitment of troops North or South of the Ourthe River pocket, failing extremely favourable combat results there is little the Allies can do to prevent it. Although I have no hard facts to back this statement up, only my own playing experiences, I would suggest between 2 experienced players, the Allies are only likely to succeed perhaps 5% of the time.

[Yojimbo252]

Let's say you somehow knew at the start that no matter what you do as the Allied player, the German player was going to employ a "No Meuse" strategy. You don't have to worry about the German auto win, or a Meuse crossing (or even touching) at any time...Given this knowledge, you'd be placed in the best possible position to prevent the turtle from being formed. Is it possible (assuming average luck levels and otherwise solid opponent skill level).

The only strat I've thought of (and baring in mind this in untested, is to throw virtually everything into the defence of Bastogne as I think that's the key.

I would abandon Spa, Trois Ponts, Houffalize completely and just defend Bastogne with as many units in and around it as possible, with perhaps just a delaying unit in Eupen and 1 or 2 units in Verviers (depending on Axis force composition next to Verviers and how many reinforcements Verviers gets the following day).

If Verviers falls you've lost. If the Axis goes for the Meuse you will most likely lose but I feel it gives you the best chance of succeeding against an Axis defensive strategy.

[wargamer11]

Yoji, I have the feeling that you are on to something with respect to Bastogne being the key to preventing/defeating the turtle (if it is possible), and I posted some thoughts about it in the other thread.

It seems the common strategy is for the allied player to attempt to deny the German player Bastogne as long as possible, but with the plan to always eventually abandon it before it is surrounded.

Maybe this is wrong. Maybe this is what allows the German player to so easily form the turtle without any concern of an attack from Bastogne threatening to cut off the entire turtle formation from supply.

Or maybe Bastogne can't be held in the current design against a solid German opponent, at least not without taking away too much from the defense of other critical areas.

Sounds like something to explore.

[Meridian99]

I hold on to Bastogne until they all die there defending that scenic little meat grinder. If you add all the turns that the Axis requires to completely cut off Bastogne and wait for two turns for the unit to be isolated, and then have to attack you, it's worth losing those units just to block him while accruing your own vps. If you manage to hold on until the 23rd, then Allied units won't be isolated because of the rule for air supply. And while he is wasting all that time and units to cut off Bastogne, I harass him in the North and hold on to Spa (and whatever else I can get)

[sa_gibson]

I hold on to Bastogne until they all die there defending that scenic little meat grinder. If you add all the turns that the Axis requires to completely cut off Bastogne and wait for two turns for the unit to be isolated, and then have to attack you, it's worth losing those units just to block him while accruing your own vps. If you manage to hold on until the 23rd, then Allied units won't be isolated because of the rule for air supply. And while he is wasting all that time and units to cut off Bastogne, I harass him in the North and hold on to Spa (and whatever else I can get)

In a normal game, if you're lucky, and determined to hold Bastogne, you'll have 4 SP of armor there on the morning of the 17th. If the Axis player is determined to take Bastogne, he'll have 15 SP of armor in Clervaux to assault the town. 2 of the Axis units will be elite armor. Combat odds show an average result of 2 hits after accounting for Bastogne's excellent hit absorption rate. In two turns, on the average, you'll be retreated or lose both units, assuming you don't abandon Bastogne after the combat on the 17th. And you can't effectively reinforce - moving the 10th Army to Bastogne is an invitation to lose it in the ensuing attack against 3 Pz divisions.

If you have fewer than 4 SP in Bastogne - 3 is more likely - you're going to lose at least one unit, and lose or retreat the other.

If you're lucky, you'll prevent the Axis from accumulating 2 or at most 4 VP, and you might tie up 3 Pz divisions for 2 turns. The cost of that is the loss of your own manuever for those two turns, and the likely loss of CCA and CCR. So it is a wash from the standpoint of VP; a gain from the standpoint of slowing the Axis; and a loss from the standpoint of your own precious resources. Is that a good trade? I think not.

For that reason, I tend to divert forces north rather than try to hold Bastogne. If the Axis player doesn't make a determined attempt at it, I'm happy to keep it, of course. But I'd rather defend the direct line to the Meuse, Verviers, Spa, and Eupen.

[wargamer11]

For that reason, I tend to divert forces north rather than try to hold Bastogne. If the Axis player doesn't make a determined attempt at it, I'm happy to keep it, of course. But I'd rather defend the direct line to the Meuse, Verviers, Spa, and Eupen.

I don't think anyone would disagree that what you describe is a generally solid strategy especially when playing a solid opponent.

The question I was trying to pose and think about is: is it this inevitable surrender of Bastogne that is considered a part of solid Allied strategy the reason for, or at least a significant contributing factor toward, the ability for the German player to create and win with the turtle strategy.

And, if so, is it possible, within the scope of the rules and victory conditions as written, to come up with an alternate Allied strategy that makes a concerted effort to hold Bastogne, and defeat the formation or effectiveness of the turtle.

I posed the hypothetical in my first post of this thread to try to filter out the idea that "if you concentrate forces on Bastogne, he'll cross the Meuse", because I wanted to focus on the question if holding Bastogne was even possible under optimal conditions (and by optimal, I don't mean insanely good luck, or poor German play, but by somehow knowing the threat of crossing the Meuse doesn't exist).

I understand that some may feel it's a pointless academic exercise.

[sa_gibson]

I posed the hypothetical in my first post of this thread to try to filter out the idea that "if you concentrate forces on Bastogne, he'll cross the Meuse", because I wanted to focus on the question if holding Bastogne was even possible under optimal conditions (and by optimal, I don't mean insanely good luck, or poor German play, but by somehow knowing the threat of crossing the Meuse doesn't exist).

I understand the idea, and I am discussing it, but it has its own internal contradiction. An Axis player determined to turtle must take Bastogne[*]. In the absense of bad luck, any skilled Axis player determined to take Bastogne will take Bastogne regardless of what the Allied player does. Therefore you can't stop the turtle by denying the Axis player Bastogne.

To beat the turtle, you have to win early. To win early, you have to deny the Axis player VPs for territory where possible, and bleed him of VPs by isolating and killing units. "To defend everything is to defend nothing". If you can't hold Bastogne, you must hold something else - Verviers, and Spa if possible, to deny the VPs. Get to Trois Points first, to slow the Axis down. Defend Ouffet and Marche. And, you have to keep enough mobile forces to try to cut supply lines when the opportunity presents itself.

[*] because he needs the VPs from it, and because it's a major crossroads

[wargamer11]

d I am discussing it, but it has its own internal contradiction. An Axis player determined to turtle must take Bastogne[*]. In the absense of bad luck, any skilled Axis player determined to take Bastogne will take Bastogne regardless of what the Allied player does. Therefore you can't stop the turtle by denying the Axis player Bastogne.

Well, your argument is hard to have a discussion with in that it dismisses the possibility of defending Bastogne out of hand, and it preemptively dismisses anyone that may come along with an example of doing so by implying that they must have benefited from either obscene luck or an incompetent opponent.

I'm finding that this is the general line of argument of those that believe the game is unbalanced: "There is no way to prevent/beat the turtle unless you have insane luck or face a bozo German. QED."

Ok, maybe that's a bit unfair for me to say ... you do mention that it can be beaten by winning before it's formed. But as far as preventing it forming in a game where you don't win that early, sounds like no "the game is unbalanced" believer thinks that's possible.

Maybe they are right, but I don't see how anyone could possibly formulate a counter that they will believe even if they weren't.

[Meridian99]

d I am discussing it, but it has its own internal contradiction. An Axis player determined to turtle must take Bastogne[*]. In the absense of bad luck, any skilled Axis player determined to take Bastogne will take Bastogne regardless of what the Allied player does. Therefore you can't stop the turtle by denying the Axis player Bastogne.

Well, your argument is hard to have a discussion with in that it dismisses the possibility of defending Bastogne out of hand, and it preemptively dismisses anyone that may come along with an example of doing so by implying that they must have benefited from either obscene luck or an incompetent opponent.

I'm finding that this is the general line of argument of those that believe the game is unbalanced: "There is no way to prevent/beat the turtle unless you have insane luck or face a bozo German. QED."

Maybe they are right, but I don't see how anyone could possibly formulate a counter that they will believe even if they weren't.

When I try to hold on to Bastogne I also try to hold on to Arlon to force the Axis to split his southern forces. Again, if he wants to divert all his armor south to get both Arlon and Bastogne before the reinforcement comes in, I should be able to take advantage of that in the north. Personally, and of course i am not an expert here and I might be wrong, I find Bastogne key for an Allied victory if the dice don't show me their ugly side (or simply to keep the Axis from dominating the southern edge of the map while I am too busy holding on like crazy in the North).

[wargamer11]

I will admit, it is really difficult to discuss mid-game strategies because it is hard to create repeatable, specific, mid-game strategies from the multitude of possibilities that can be seen in the first few turns ... even when we try to limit the discussion by making assumptions.

I've tried playing several games with myself to come up with repeatable, specific, Allied mid-game strategies to prevent the forming of the German turtle, and I confess I haven't been able to come up with anything that can be unarguably defended against claims of "bad German luck" or "bad German play", even if I don't personally believe either were a factor.

I may just have to concede defeat and turn the floor back over to the rule changers.

[wargamer11]

When I try to hold on to Bastogne I also try to hold on to Arlon to force the Axis to split his southern forces. Again, if he wants to divert all his armor south to get both Arlon and Bastogne before the reinforcement comes in, I should be able to take advantage of that in the north. Personally, and of course i am not an expert here and I might be wrong, I find Bastogne key for an Allied victory if the dice don't show me their ugly side (or simply to keep the Axis from dominating the southern edge of the map while I am too busy holding on like crazy in the North).

Thanks for adding to the discussion, Blood.
How often would you say in your games as the Allies are you able to hold Bastogne? In the times that you did, did you feel it was because the German player essentially ignored it, or did you feel they blundered the assault? Or, were you simply able to hold out against a determined assault?

Also, in the times you held Bastogne, did you ever face a German opponent who then went on to try the turtle defense? If so, were you able to stop/defeat it? And if so, did you feel that your holding of Bastogne was key to doing that?

[Meridian99]

When I try to hold on to Bastogne I also try to hold on to Arlon to force the Axis to split his southern forces. Again, if he wants to divert all his armor south to get both Arlon and Bastogne before the reinforcement comes in, I should be able to take advantage of that in the north. Personally, and of course i am not an expert here and I might be wrong, I find Bastogne key for an Allied victory if the dice don't show me their ugly side (or simply to keep the Axis from dominating the southern edge of the map while I am too busy holding on like crazy in the North).

Thanks for adding to the discussion, Blood.
How often would you say in your games as the Allies are you able to hold Bastogne? In the times that you did, did you feel it was because the German player essentially ignored it, or did you feel they blundered the assault? Or, were you simply able to hold out against a determined assault?

Also, in the times you held Bastogne, did you ever face a German opponent who then went on to try the turtle defense? If so, were you able to stop/defeat it? And if so, did you feel that your holding of Bastogne was key to doing that?

Glad I can add my 2 cents. Although, again, I am not an expert at the game. I hold Bastogne 4 out of 5 times I play as the Allies even with the Axis tanks trying to take it. I've killed more than one advances at Bastogne. I bring up the 10 Arm and the two smaller units (if they don't get destroyed in the pre-dawn attacks) to fortify it as good as I can. that usually does the trick. I've been surrounded plenty of times, but by the time they are ready to actually attack it they have to decide whether to keep on wasting time there or try to go for the Meuse. Never had an opponent try to turtle while I held Bastogne; don't know if that was because they weren't planning on doing it anyway or because Lullange is a pretty weak point to hold on to if Bastogne is not in Axis hands. As I said earlier, I try to hold on to Arlon too if I can (or just delay the Axis there) because I don't like the Axis player feeling all secure in the southern flank.

Of course all these comes from my experience with the game. Don't know if I simply haven't consistently played expert players, but I win quite often with the Allies (I like playing them, I find it more rewarding to organize a moving defense).

[Jamus1972]

Wargamer, I understand what you are saying.

The "problem" with defending Bastogne at all costs,in every situation, is that if you see 15 pips of armour assembled in Clerveaux on Dec 16th, Bastogne will fall and all of the units inside it will die provided the axis attacks you first impulse on the 17th OR he gets the commandos on the 17th and uses it to neutralise the reinforcing American armour in Arlon.

the question might be, if there are 15 pips in Clerveaux, then there are only 2 other meaningful Pz units on the rest of the map until the 19th. can you keep Spa and Verviers or even re-take Stadtkill? or a better question - did you defend St Vith on the 16th and thereby stop the Pz freight train from assembling in Clerveaux (as 116th Pz can't get to Clerveaux on the 16th if St Vith is held).

[wargamer11]

Thanks for the thoughtful reply, Jamus.

I have to admit, given the difficulty in trying to create testable mid-game situations in games against myself, I've given up the quest for a way to stop the turtle (other than outright winning as the Allies before it can be formed).

I spent quite a bit of time looking at the league results and postings over on the Quarter to Three site, and their conclusions after a large volume of games among a wide variety of opponents is better than any research I can come up with, so I have to defer to their analysis.

I surrender to the inevitability of The Turtle!

[sa_gibson]

Apologies for cross-posting this from the QT3 forum, but I wanted to be sure that wargamer saw it.

Having been around the web since the time of Usenet news/message boards, I shouldn't need a reminder on how easily board communication can go wrong. I don't mean to chasten anyone, and I apologize if my comments came across that way.

Far from it - I'm actually trying to have the discussion you're trying to have, or, at least, a related one. If you look back far enough in this thread, you'll see me posing a question: What do other players feel is the best strategy to win as the Allies. That's not exactly the same as how to beat the turtle, but the two are clearly related.

To go further, and playing on your two options above (1=beat the Axis early, and 2=don't beat the Axis early yet prevent the turtle from forming), I think they both likely result from the same approach, and represent different degrees of success. The keys are 1) slow the Axis down, 2) deny them some VP-generating towns, 3) isolate and destroy Axis units when the opportunity is presented, and 4) do these things without the wholesale sacrificing of Allied units.

As to which towns to defend, the circumstances will dictate. If I can get 3 SP into St. Vith on the 16th, I'll do it. If I can mount an effective & supported action against Stadkyll, I'll do it. If it's clear the Axis player is committed to taking Bastogne, I'll abandon it. I'll do all I can to defend Verviers, which I think means defending Spa and Eupen at least in the early game. If I can get heavy Armor into Trois Points and Houffalize, I will. If you can force the Axis player to take the southern route to the Meuse, you've accomplished a lot - slowed him down, prevented VP accumulation for Spa and Verviers, and created a long and vulnerable supply line you can exploit.

But I'll say that success at this approach, against an experienced Axis player, usually comes down to how much luck you have.

Just my two cents.

[wargamer11]

I'll cross post my reply from Qt3 as well...

No apology necessary at all Scott.

I was the one being bullheaded before doing the research. I've always had a reflexive disdain for the idea of changing rules before enough varied play time has been but in, but I see now you guys have certainly done due diligence, and what is more, clearly still enjoy the game and simply want to make it better.

Thanks so much for your reply and the conversation.