Series Replay: rbeyma vs gregorit

[gregorit]

More coming guys. Richard and I have been playing, albeit slowly, I just need to get some time to organize my screen shots and put together some cogent thoughts. I've had to make some tough decisions about time allocation and, while I can play the games, keeping up on the postings is a different, and sadder story.

[gregorit]

So here's the beginning of the 17th; a few key thoughts going through my mind:
1) Bastogne is garrisoned with two armor units. Having four factors in there will make it a little tough to take and both of them being armor should ensure I nick a few attackers.
2) My Eupen position is not great. Having two weak units there is a definite worry, he is likely to breakthrough from there. In retrospect, it would have been better for me if the 99th Division had been eliminated on the 16th.
3) 10 Armored division is ready and able to reinforce Bastogne. Too bad the commandos are about to show up and freeze that unit for the turn!

From a strategic perspective, my goal on the 17th is preserve my units and hold Bastogne. I am willing to give up Spa, but not Verviers. I am well aware that there is some 'play' associated with trying to monkey around with Stadkyll in order to delay German reinforcements but I don't think it's worth it as the German usually will end up killing all the US units in the vicinity. My expectation is that Richard will be trying to assemble kill stacks, pick off US units and either get a unit into Bastogne or threaten to cut it off on the 18th.

Tomorrow: I will show the position at the end of the 17th, barring any further discussion that warrants delaying that discussion.

[blahblah3502]

Thanks for the update, gregorit! I really enjoy reading these posts and appreciate you making the time and effort.

Re:" I am well aware that there is some 'play' associated with trying monkey around with Stadkyll in order to delay German reinforcements but I don't think it's worth it as the German usually will end up killing all the US units in the vicinity"

I sometimes like using 2nd inf and 102 can to cause delays to the Stadkyll & Gemund Axis reinforcements ( and one time managed to hold off Axis reinforcements for 3 days vs a human player and one time for 5 days vs AI - but that's very rare; 102 can also be worth using for a superrisky heroic cutting of all Axis supply lines , which I almost did once but fumbled at the last moment ). I think the bigger risk than having them destroyed is 2nd and 102 being left in Monschau for a rear-area gambit but ending up caught up in that area in a way where they are ignored by Axis but can't maneuver enough to have any effect on the rest of the game. not as bad as being killed and losing VPs but damaging all the same

[thedudeabidez]

" I have played in the neighborhood of 40-50 games and learn to succeed with both sides. However I think the Germans have an edge in play balance."

Definitely. About 50 games under my belt and not a single Axis loss, as compared to 5 for the Allies. The German can play bold or cautious, north or south, maneuver or attrition, and find roads to victory with each. The Allies however are locked into preventing that auto-victory for the first 4 turns at all costs, and almost invariably have to make some risky attacks mid-game to kill Germans and stay in the game before they lose on points. My gut feeling at this point is the VP level needed for German victory descends too quickly for the Allies to manage a coherent counter-attack against a German player who has learned to count points and watch the clock.

Anyway, looking forward to the rest of your replay.

[OWAC1st]

" My gut feeling at this point is the VP level needed for German victory descends too quickly for the Allies to manage a coherent counter-attack against a German player who has learned to count points and watch the clock.

I concur! The German side is forgiving - a mistake is usually redeemable. The Allies are stretched so thin in the early going that a single error is normally fatal, if not immediately, then leading to a grinding late-game VP loss.

Please keep the replay coming.

[gregorit]

Here's the situation at the end of the 17th. I'll pause here to allow Richard to comment on the day's results.

[gregorit]

My executive summary of December 17th: I thought things were going well until my Eupen counterattack failed. I had a very good shot of retreating the two German infantry but I didn't end up inflicting any damage. I figured it was a safe move given my reinforcements coming in and I was also counting on getting another shot at the beginning of the 18th. Bastogne was still held but Richard built a killer stack so I knew I'd be booted from that city before the 10th Armored could get in. My goals for the 18th would be to preserve units, hold Verviers, and hopefully get a unit out of Bastogne alive.

[s_nkarp]

Eupen, Eupen, Eupen - destroyer of dreams!

[Yojimbo252]

My gut feeling at this point is the VP level needed for German victory descends too quickly for the Allies to manage a coherent counter-attack against a German player who has learned to count points and watch the clock.

My thoughts as well.

[rddfxx]

I strongly agree as well. I very much like to play aggressively as the German, and I like to play against an aggressive German player. But I have played against the German turtle, and I have played the turtle myself. I have not been able to move the turtle,...The turtle abides!

[thedudeabidez]

I have beaten the turtle a couple of times, you can see it coming and start preparing early for the counter-attack. You have to be very precise about where to hit, even if that costs a turn in maneuvering. But even then, it involves serious risks. The Allies have to walk into some attacks where the odds aren't great, and they can't afford to give the Axis any more points via losses.