Cry Me A (Meuse)River

[s_nkarp]

Great input, Gregorit, thanks!

[daviddunham]

Here's a list of the Top 10 things I'd like to see in the next BoB update, I'll update this post as the mood strikes me or if convinced otherwise.
1. Fix the unsupplied early victory. Or adjust the rules to match the current situation.
2. In GameCenter play, list your opponent on the game screen.

#1 is fixed in the next release. As for #2, you realize you can tap the faction to see who you’re playing?

[gregorit]

As for #2, you realize you can tap the faction to see who you’re playing?

Thanks, David, I didn't realize that. It might be "better" to have the opponents name on the screen, vs a pop-up, but only because I'm a UI freak into minimizing unnecessary interactions.

Gregorit Tip #4: Battle Preparation

In traditional board gaming you can easily calculate the probability of 'success' because there is full transparency into all the mechanics and outcome tables. In iPad Battle of the Bulge, it's a little trickier. What I'll outline here is how I approach critical battles; armed with the knowledge of the possible outcomes, I can then make more informed decisions as to whether or not to even engage in the battle.

To illustrate my quantitative approach to assessing a potential battle, I will use a specific real-battle example that comes up fairly frequently: It is 17AM and the Germans have to assess whether or not to attack Trois Pont which is defended by a two-strength Allied armored unit. This unit sits squarely astride a main route to the Meuse in very defensible terrain. There are two ways of attacking it and what I will now present are the odds associated with 'success'.

In this case I am arbitrarily declaring success to be the elimination of this unit. What will it take to eliminate this US unit? Because of the woods, the US unit will be able to 'reduce' the hits against it by one. (Forest normally reduces hits by two but because the defender only has a strength of two, this modifier is capped at one.) Because retreating also reduces damage by one, I know that I will have to inflict a total of FOUR hits. If I inflict only three hits on the US unit, it will lose one pip and retreat to Spa.

The first approach is to do the two space move with the 116th Panzer unit currently located in Vielsam. While the attacker, at five strength, is weaker than the 1st SS, there is no river defense and it preserves the threat of the 1SS unit. My Attacker Hit (AH) value is five. (Four for the base, +1 for Elite armor, -1 for defending armor.) The chance of inflicting four hits is 8%. The Defender Hit (DH) value is 4. The German unit has a 51% chance of taking 1 or 2 hits. The chance of 'success' is so low that I would not count on the 116th doing the job.

The second approach is to attack with the 1SS Panzer in Malmedy. This will be a direct assault across a river but this unit has a large strength and is elite. My AH is five. The chance of inflicting four hits is 50% with the defender having a 64% chance of inflicting one or more points of damage. Note that the DH value is 4 because all attackers are crossing a river. Using the 1st SS seems like a better way to achieve success as I've defined it.

Once it has been determined that the chance of success is best met by the attack of 1SS, the next question is whether or not this activation should occur NOW. One needs to look and see if the defender can move away, if it can be reinforced, or if there is a more pressing German move to make. Assessing these kinds of factors will be saved for another post, but at least you now know what the odds are of being able to achieve success in one particular battle. A diagram of the battle situation is also provided.

*** The forum software precludes me attaching my Excel file (.xlsx), if someone tells me how to upload it, I will also make make my "combat calculator" available. ***

gregorit4.jpg

[s_nkarp]

Posted for Gregorit

[gregorit]

Thanks, Nick.

For those of you accessing the XLS, you need only enter the AH or DH in the yellow highlighted cell and the probability values will update accordingly. The first table shows the likelihood of getting "X" hits while the other table shows the likelhood of getting "X or More" hits.

My next mathematical endeavor will be around calculating the expected number of activations in a day but, surprisingly, it's actually more complicated than just calculating hits.

[gregorit]

Just got the BoB update, nice job, SS. I'll definitely tweak my German strategies and it's good to see the achievements are working now. (Just completed the "Boot Camp Tutorial", twelve more achievements to go!)

Misc comments:
* rbeyma and I will be doing a BoB series replay, not sure if we'll host it here or on consimworld. (I have some admin privileges on CSW which gives me a little more flexibility.)
* Nick K. helpfully pointed out that calculating the # of activations in a day is an application of Markov Chains. Further research indicates that the subclass involves "Absorbing States" and there are some Excel add-ons to handle this. (I'm definitely not going back to Matlab!)
* I'm going to cut back on my ad-hoc matches, if someone wants to play, just friend me on GC and set up a match directly.

Gregorit tip #5: The Mistakes I Make
I don't mind making mistakes. ONCE. Unfortunately, in the heat of battle tapping, I sometimes forget what I learned. I'm going to write them down, as much for me as for everyone else, in the hope that 'transcribing my mistakes' moves the lessons in to my long-term memory.

1) I spot a great move and move a unit from a stacked area and then launch my devastating counter-attack. In my haste, I neglected to move the other units in the source area and basically wasted their turn.

2) I spot the flaw in my move but find my finger on the "commit" button. Argh!!! I have since learned NOT to lift my finger from the button but, instead, slide it off of the iPad sensing surface to the nearest edge.

3) I build a MASSIVE tank stack and throw it into heavy woods against an Allied Armor unit. The combination of terrain, my losses, his replacements, and mediocre luck often means I'll be locked in combat for NUMEROUS days. I should have tried to flank the unit or gone for weaker units in less defensible terrain.

4) In the Race for Arlon, I sometimes forget to garrison the space. Just when I think I've 'won' the race, my German opponent double moves 12/20-12/21 into the space or even launches an attack to get a breakthrough and I'm staring at Patton being delayed. Garrison the space!

5) And, most importantly, when I have a great move to make, NOW is not always the time to make it, particularly if it's not near the end of the day! This game is all about prioritization but one need only 'rush' those great moves if they are otherwise blockable.

[daviddunham]

More good tips — note that depending on game flow, you can sometimes cancel a Commit (when it doesn’t lead to combat). It’s not something I would ever rely on though.

[gregorit]

Gregorit Tips #6: Tough Choices

One of the interesting challenges of Battle of the Bulge is that determining the wisest course of action at any particular time is not always apparent. I tend to have 10 or more games going at any one time and usually do moves sporadically - this precludes having a real sense of the game 'flow' or even any understanding of my opponents 'style' which is usually critical in face to face or real-time matches. Because of my playing context, therefore, I have to be able to quickly review the situation and make a decision at that time. Sadly, I can't say that I go into any particular game with any sort of overarching plan, nor do I remember what had happened previously. My decisions are made SOLELY on the current game situation. What I am laying out here is my approach to consistently making appropriate moves when playing matches with a 'stateless' mindset. This 'checklist' approach won't work for everyone, but it allows me to get a lot of playing time in and win more than my share of games.

The first thing I do, prior to making ANY moves, is to quickly determine whether I'm 'winning' or 'losing'. In the span of about a minute I do the following:

1. Verify the scenario and side I'm playing. Nothing is as aggravating as playing with the wrong victory conditions in mind.
2. Familiarize myself with the VP total as well as how many VPs are under Axis control.
3. Check the game turn. If I don't know the reinforcement schedule by heart, I need to check. I will also want to verify the VP autovictory threshold at this point. And, finally, I will want to use the current time to assess whether or not the day can be expected to end before I get another move in.
4. The next analysis I do is a simple "If I do nothing, will I win or lose?", i.e., what are the things that could change the VP totals that could lead to a game ending situation. For example, if I'm the Germans and the Allies have some weak one-step units on the field of battle, are they susceptible to being eliminated? If so, how many VP will that generate and could it be decisive in ending the game this turn?

Assuming there are no game winning moves that need to immediately be made, my next step is to quickly identify a bunch of alternative moves.
1. The first category of moves I examine are those that thwart my opponents potential best move. Identifying these requires putting yourself in your opponents position is very important and prevents 'tunnel vision' where you make moves in a fashion that is oblivious to your opponent's will and capabilities.
2. Secondly, I examine forcing moves - moves I think dictate an immediate response. Note that a forcing move could be an advantageous move that I'd want to make later on and shouldn't be a move merely done to force his move. An example of this kind of move is one that threatens the opponents supply lines.
3.Thirdly, I identify and review positioning moves, moves that get me into a better situation for next turn. An example of this is adding a strong tank unit to another tank unit, i.e., creating a killer stack.
4. Finally, I assess whether or not a key battle needs to occur. Usually I want to launch battles to kill units, take VP spaces, or pin down his units. If necessary, I will pop up a spreadsheet to see if I battle I want to win is actually winnable. Sometimes you need to know when not even try!

Done properly, I can usually go through this process in less than a minute. Not because I'm thinking really fast, but because I'm also combining my analysis with 'memory' of similar situations from prior games with a knowledge of all the static tables and modifiers. Below is a situation recently encountered - what's the best Allied move? You should be able to identify it without knowing any of the prior moves of the game.