what to do against a German defensive line strategy?

[blahblah3502]

Just in the middle of my first game (Im Allied)where the Axis player's deliberate strategy is to take and hold a defensive line running from Verviers to Spa to Bastogne... and just sit tight for the rest of the game, get the panzer divisions stacked up and sit tight and forget about the Meuse. In fact, Axis (in flagrant disobedience of the Fuehrer's orders!) stays away from Meuse completely to avoid releasing the British reserves early.... I even tried to tempt Axis by tossing out a lone suicide mission CCR near the Meuse like fish bait , but Axis is not stupid

looks like Axis is coasting to a 56VP victory by the end of Dec 23 with no unit losses ( and having caused a mere 14 VPs of unit loss for the Allies). ok so I may have sucked especially badly and/or had bad dice rolls in the early game but what should one do when Axis has settled in to a defensive line like this? Throw Allied suicide multi-division attacks across bridges against stacked heavy panzers and hope for the best?
And isn't the Axis strategy outlined here an automatic strategic failure and/or treason in "real historical terms"?

[s_Uberskooper]

This issue is being discussed in the game balance thread. I think an easy solution would be to raise the Axis victory point ceiling.

[Yojimbo252]

And isn't the Axis strategy outlined here an automatic strategic failure and/or treason in "real historical terms"?

Well from a historical perspective it could be argued that the whole operation was destined to fail from the start and that the objectives set by Hitler were unrealistic.

So in the context of a wargame that has to quantify success and failure for the Ardennes Offensive in a way that tries to keep the game balanced, I don't think the Axis pushing the front back to the Meuse River and recapturing cities like Bastogne and Verviers, whilst inflicting relatively more casaulties on the Allies than they sustained is an unreasonable measurement of Axis 'success'.

In terms of your particular situation, if the Axis have deliberately held back from reaching the Meuse then Herve must be under your control. From Herve you can make a full 3 unit assault against either Verviers or Stourmont/Spa without having to contend with rivers.

You can also try to outflank Bastogne. If you can work yourself into a position to take control of Longvilly it leaves the Axis in an awkward position where you leave a constant threat of attacking Bastogne but can also threaten St Vith.

[gregorit]

Good question, blahblah3502.

I personally think the Germans deserve to win if they've captured Verviers AND Bastogne by 12/23, the Allied play needs to play an active defense to prevent that from happening. In fact, my Allied 17AM TOP PRIORITY move is to put the 10th Armored into Bastogne and it will take commandos or a successful 17AM dawn assault to stop me. Longer term, however, if you do face a German line, the Allies need to build some Killer Stacks and start hitting that wall. Select spaces where you can get three units in on the assault and where you have a decent chance of eliminating a defender or forcing a retreat. Be wary of counterattacks, of course, no sense in evicting some infantry defenders only to then get your head handed to you by a stack of German tanks. Given the terrain, I usually end up sliding forces south. Given the value of Bastogne, the Allies can't really win in an attritional battle if that town stays in German hands for the bulk of the game.

PS: As the Germans, I tend to push for the Meuse because getting 3 German panzer units in exchange for 'freeing' 4 British units is a worthwhile deal. I also want the extra 'room' to support a fighting withdrawal - opening the distance prevents the Allies from getting their infantry into the fray.

[cosarara]

Sound analysis gregorit.
I would add that if the Allied player fall in love with the idea of holding Bastogne it usually end up trading 2-3 days with a much needed armor unit AND the delaying of 22th american reinforcement (not a great deal in my opinion).

[cosarara]

Let's examine the VP in detail from 16th to 22th (when the allied reinforcement come in but are not actually ready for combat) for a german player not willing to commit to the Meuse (but you can easily switch to Meuse mode if the allied player tries to hold all those towns:

St Vith: you take it on the 16 and hold till 22 = 7 VP
Verviers: with and armored stack you can take it on 17th or 18th at worst: 12/10 VP
Spa: again 17th or 18th it depends : 5/6 VP
Bastogne: 17th or 18th : 12/10
5/9 more points you get from the allied units on the front line you destroy it makes for 37/42 VP plus all the points you get if the allied player hold Verviers and Bastogne in force and die there (another 19 VPs). more than enough to win before the allied steamroller starto to move with the airforce helping from above.

[gregorit]

I like your VP approach, cosrara, but I think your assumptions about capturing Spa/Verviers/Bastogne by the "17th or 18th" are not well founded.

For example: Only the 1st SS Panzer could even theoretically attack Verviers on the 17th and it's mathematically impossible for it to win unless the US moves one or both defenders out. Assuming the US leaves only the 4-strength infantry behind, the 1st SS would have to inflict 6 or more hits which is only a 16% chance ASSUMING it captured Malmedy on the 16th without losing a pip. If 1SS lost even one strength point on 16AM, which occurs ~42% of the time, then a six-strength 1SS only takes Verviers against the solo US infantry 5% of the time. Experienced German players will not be taking these longshots against Allied players this early in the game. On the 18th, the Germans could maybe bring in 12th SS Panzer but, of course, the US is now likely to be defending with two units so the odds are even lower.

Nevertheless, counting the VPs the way you did is critical to success and this "VP Awareness" is an absolute must for experienced players. I personally don't start counting until the 22nd of December, however, as there are too many wacky things that can happen up to that point.

[cosarara]

If Verviers is defended in force by two units and Spa with one the Meuse is wide open for the German to pick.
If Verviers is defended by two units and Spa is abandoned then Vierviers can fall on the 19 under a panzer stack (not the best option but still doable), but if you are going towards the Meuse or are keeping those Armor units dear (as you should) you can ignore Verviers and concentrate somewhere else.

St Vith, Bastogne, Spa and the allied units that are killed in the front line in the first days, give the German more than enough points to win the game, while preserving forces (except for losses attacking Bastogne on the 18th should the town not fall on the dawn of 17th.

[gregorit]

Show me, cosrara, I'm gregorit on GameCenter, feel free to set up a few matches with you as the Germans. My personal belief is that committing a panzer stack to a head-on assault to Verviers early in the game makes things easier for the Allies from a strategic perspective.

[cosarara]

Show me, cosrara, I'm gregorit on GameCenter, feel free to set up a few matches with you as the Germans. My personal belief is that committing a panzer stack to a head-on assault to Verviers early in the game makes things easier for the Allies from a strategic perspective.

As I wrote it's not the best option availabe (but is still doable), and I won't do it, but I gladly accept your invitation, in a couple of hours I'll be home and can set up a game.

see you later.

[blahblah3502]

thanks for the helpful advice, everyone. very interesting discussion!

here is a screenshot from midday-ish Dec 20 in the game in question (update clarification: this game was already over - 56 VP victory for Axis on Dec 23, before I made this post) ,when I started having the dawning realization of what Axis was actually doing

I feel like the caricature of Monty that his American critics liked to joke about, the version who liked to focus on "tidy" battlefields

Axisdefence.jpg

[cosarara]

Your opponent is giving you options, he doesn't defend the river lines.
There is a lot of time to go.

[thedudeabidez]

Looking forward to learning the results of your challenge. I'd put my money on Gregorit's analysis.

[cosarara]

We are working on it.

[rbeyma]

If I'm playing the Germans and I manage to get all 6 VPs worth, Verviers, Spa, St Vith, and Bastogne of course I'm going into a defensive posture as it will become the Allies' job to make something happen or I will win on VPs.

I think the key is to hold to Germans to at most 4 VPs a day while not letting any of your units die too easily. Then the German won't be able to get to 40-50 VPs, at least without some major success that they have to break their defensive posture for. So at this point you know the battle will go to at least the 26th or 27th, and you will have significant time to counterattack.

[thedudeabidez]

>I think the key is to hold to Germans to at most 4 VPs a day while not letting any of your units die too easily. Then the German won't be able to get to 40-50 VPs, at least without some major success that they have to break their defensive posture for.

I dunno, if the German manages to kill some Allied units early on, I have seen a lot of Axis wins with just three points held. With four, it's really the German's game to lose.

[s_Mylo]

Assemble a tank force in Martelange by robbing units from the north and attack Longvilly. A reserve force in Neuf to keep the Bastongne garrison in place (or attack Bastogne should the garrison decide to counter attack in Longvilly). A small force in Wiltz will ensure supply and prevent German bridge crossing for counter attack. Once Longvilly is breached, attempt to secure St. Vith while encircling German south flank forces to eliminate for VP. React accordingly when the Germans start mobilizing their dug in defences.

.....it's an idea.

Mylo

[Yojimbo252]

...if the German manages to kill some Allied units early on, I have seen a lot of Axis wins with just three points held. With four, it's really the German's game to lose.

I tend to agree.

I think it's quite possible for the Axis to win by receiving some average success during the initial days, securing objectives worth 3-4VPs per day, intentionally avoiding the Meuse so as not to trigger an earlier British offensive and then just give ground so as not to lose units and avoid contact with the British.

I think the upper VP threshold is set a little too low for a number of days where it starts dropping from the maximum. I've seen a number of instances where the Allies just haven't been given the opportunity to bring their counter offensive to bear before the limit is hit and the Axis trigger an early victory even though the Allies were in a very strong position and most likely would have won by the final day.

The option to play through to the end may be a workaround but that's not much consolation if your opponent having already won as the Axis and in a very tenuous position chooses not to.

Can I ask whether the feature is going to be included as an option upfront when the game is created so both players basically 'agree' to play through to the end (unless one player resigns)?

[s_nkarp]

...if the German manages to kill some Allied units early on, I have seen a lot of Axis wins with just three points held. With four, it's really the German's game to lose.

I tend to agree.
...
Can I ask whether the feature is going to be included as an option upfront when the game is created so both players basically 'agree' to play through to the end (unless one player resigns)?

There will be a form of campaign scenario which continues to the bitter end automatically -- if not in the next update the one after that. But with chat messages you can confirm that early with your opponent.

As to balance, overall statistics on gameplay are as close to even as we could hope. But most players are newbies, so the averages may not address expert play. We're watching comments in the boards carefully, and will be especially interested in the results of ongoing tournaments.

[Yojimbo252]

There will be a form of campaign scenario which continues to the bitter end automatically -- if not in the next update the one after that. But with chat messages you can confirm that early with your opponent.

Ok that's great.

As to balance, overall statistics on gameplay are as close to even as we could hope. But most players are newbies, so the averages may not address expert play. We're watching comments in the boards carefully, and will be especially interested in the results of ongoing tournaments.

Sure, my remarks weren't aimed at overall balance. It may well be that given the currents statistics your chances of winning are relatively even between Axis and Allies.

However the point I'm making is more to do 'intra' balance if I can use that term. My opinion is growing that the avoid the Meuse strategy as Axis is more powerful and less risky than stretching your neck out and going for it. This may be intended or something that needs to be rebalanced or perhaps others feel differently about it.

Secondly the point about the upper VP limit is it can award the Axis an early win when they are about to get crushed had the game gone on for a couple more days (and I'm not talking a couple of days beyond the 28th, I mean within the normal parameters). This can leave a bad taste in Allied mouths and be viewed a little gamey when players throw in suicide attacks just to get them over the line for a given day without much regard for what will happen tomorrow because if successful, tomorrow never comes.

But anyway, the option to play a scenario that has no early victory condition will be a nice feature that should eliminate the second issue.

Regarding the first, that could be tweaked by increasing the VPs awarded for the Meuse objectives relative to simply holding towns/cities.