2 questions for the experts:

[ThorHa]

Replaying dlc 40 on General in order to maximise prestige for 1943 ff and to distribute experience better between the core units (which number is higher than the maximum slot allowance). 2 odd observations:

1) Even the Pz38, whihc constitutes the core if my panzer force, suffers very little damage against the Somia S 35 or the Char B 1 of the French. And, despite firing second mostly, does MORE damage than received. Is that purely the result of experience, as random luck can be excluded due to the high number of observations?

2) I received +3 attack heroes for now 4 units. Is that bound to certain battle performance (the reception was in the 2 observed cases after the unit dealt damage much higher than forecasted)? Or pure random luck?

Regards,
Thorsten

[huertgenwald]

a) The Pz 38 has a slightly better HA than both french tanks (+1), so mostly yes, i guess

b) AFAIK, that's most probably luck.

[BiteNibbleChomp]

It's just random chance that you got the same hero multiple times - I think there are 32 different possibilities, but that would just mean you were lucky enough to get the options that only 1 in 1,048,576 tests would get - good job!

- BNC

[ThorHa]

32? Not counting the preconfigured there are just 10 (Ini +1, Mov +1, Range +1, Att +1,2,3, Def +1,2,3, Spo +1). And if the chances are completely random all 4 occurrences are fully separate, reducing my luck to 4 times 1 of 10

Regards,
Thorsten

[captainjack]

There is a full explanation on the forum - probably in FAQs.
Last I remember, if you were awarded a hero that could be more than +1, it was 4/7 +1, 2/7 +2 and 1/7 +3.
I'm not a real statistician, but surprising results are more common than most people expect. This is even more noticeable in a campaign because there are so many opportunities for a random result. I've had 2 +3 attack heroes on a strategic bomber - bad news for ships - and there are discussions where people have reported getting three +3 A or D heroes. My worst experience was one of the AK campaigns where about half my heroes were +1 spotting - quite good on recon but not so great on artillery! I had to restart when I got to Persia as I could see everything but couldn't fight it.

[antoniocapo]

My worst experience was one of the AK campaigns where about half my heroes were +1 spotting - quite good on recon but not so great on artillery! I had to restart when I got to Persia as I could see everything but couldn't fight it.

I got 3 artillery with spotting +1 and it makes me want to scratch my face. However, making the best of it, i deploy those artillery in the further upfront spots at the deployment phase, might catch a lurker nearby. Also having fighters with move +1 heroes really sucks (got 2 of those ).

[BiteNibbleChomp]

32? Not counting the preconfigured there are just 10 (Ini +1, Mov +1, Range +1, Att +1,2,3, Def +1,2,3, Spo +1). And if the chances are completely random all 4 occurrences are fully separate, reducing my luck to 4 times 1 of 10

Regards,
Thorsten

The 32 are made from possible combinations that can be joined together (programmed somewhere)

eg.

You can have a Attack +1, but sometimes will get Att +1 AND Ini +1.

there are many possibilities, such as my previous example, of combinations. So we are not limited to just 10. Not having gained many heroes (my strategy is quite suicidal for some - infantry are bait, and tanks are frequently used against cities!), there is no way I have had them all, but I found the set of them while modding something for War of the World.

- BNC

[captainjack]

My understanding is that when you get a hero:
First thing: what type of hero? ini/range (arty and AA gets range, otherwise you get ini - bad luck 88 if in AT mode...), move, spotting, attack and defence. So 1 in 5 for any one attribute.
Then, if it's A or D you can have more than +1 so it's then th 4/2/1 odds of getting +1/+2/+3. That would make it 1/35 that you get a +3 A , and 1/35 for +3 D.

That would mean getting three +3 attack heroes is about 1 in 37,000. So it should be unusual but not exceptional. Getting three +3 defence heroes will have the same odds. If you look at getting any three +3 heroes (any mix of A or D) you'd be around 1/5000.

Assume 40 or 50 core units, not all will get three heroes, so say 20 will and you are getting into the region of 1/200 for each playthrough. The odds might be slightly better than that as once you get one +3 attack hero it's more likely the unit will get played every time, more likely they will do more damage, more likely they make it to a third hero. If you have defence heroes, it's more likely you will overstrength the unit because it holds onto its overtsrength better (so it hits harder)and less chance it will pull out of combat due to damage. Both of theseincrease your chance of getting the second and third hero.

So if you get a run of +3 heroes, good for you (and would you trade some for my excess spotting...), but maybe hold back on buying 50 lotto tickets for now.

[antoniocapo]

So if you get a run of +3 heroes, good for you (and would you trade some for my excess spotting...), but maybe hold back on buying 50 lotto tickets for now.

Hey Captainjack, want to trade me 2 of your spotting fighters for my 2 move +1 fighters? I would even give them to you upgraded to the latest and overstrength

[BiteNibbleChomp]

I'm willing to trade a +3 attack, +1 move hero I got in exchange for enough corpses to make a 15-foot high barricade all around Europe (I need something to defend it with after conquering the last of it in 1918)

- BNC

[El_Jairo]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think it sounds like a good idea to Disband any unit that gets a bad hero as first upgrade. Like spotting on arty or infantry or movement on a fighter. You get your prestige back, so can replace it with a green unit and getting the first star isn't that complicated.
Also many thanks on the tip to overstrenghten infantry with good heroes.I think mainly about + ini or D/A heroes. Because overstength is great for reducing the retaliation blow and countering bad rolls.

[antoniocapo]

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think it sounds like a good idea to Disband any unit that gets a bad hero as first upgrade. Like spotting on arty or infantry or movement on a fighter. You get your prestige back, so can replace it with a green unit and getting the first star isn't that complicated.
Also many thanks on the tip to overstrenghten infantry with good heroes.I think mainly about + ini or D/A heroes. Because overstength is great for reducing the retaliation blow and countering bad rolls.

Getting first star is uncomplicated but getting the first hero is! You need at least 100 kills to gain the first hero, and thats hard for artillery to score. I prefer to save each turn and reload the turn if a unit gets a bad hero (though i am lazy and dont reload that much and stick to sucky hero). The following posts explain the hero gain formula:
by Kerensky » 30 Jan 2012 05:59

Much as medal acquisition was slowed down in the DLCs to compensate for a much, MUCH larger campaign length, hero acquisition was also slowed.

In the DLCs the range for when heroes are gained are
100-300
301-1000
1001-2000
kills.

Rudankort wrote:
Getting a hero is equiprobable within the range [HeroKillsMin; HeroKillsMax]. After each combat your probability to get a hero is:
- 0%, if the kills are below HeroKillsMin
- 100%, if the kills are equal or above HeroKillsMax
- KillsInCombat/KillsToMax*100% otherwise

Example:
HeroKillsMax is 100
A unit has 80 kills on it (and 20 still to go till HeroKillsMax)
The unit kills further 5 points in its next combat
Probability to get a hero after this combat is: 5/20*100=25%

[ksasaki]

Is that really the formula? Then my 103 kill hero who killed 4 units had a 4/297 to get a hero! truly remarkable. I thought it was a sliding scale, something like total kills / kills max. But instead it seems more like the probability would only spike at the very end.

In fact, I plotted the probability with K from 1 to 10. For a 50% probability to gain a hero even with 10 kills is ~260-270 kills!

Attached graph here.

[captainjack]

BNC -
Given that you like making your troops walk everywhere, why don't you make that wall out of worn out boots and horseshoes?
I can lend you some spotting heroes so you can see over it....

[BiteNibbleChomp]

Good idea, my army probably has gone through 100 million boots by now!

- BNC

[antoniocapo]

@ksasaki - Yes your chart is nice I thought the probability of obtaining a hero was linear but according to your insight its not. That makes it even tougher to get that first hero and hence it might not be a good idea to disband the unit to try again for another hero. Better to save each turn (or even midturn) and reload if you get a bad hero.

It is a good idea to keep track of which units are close to get a hero (those nearing or at the maximum kills). That way you can reload if you get a depressing hero as you are going to get a new hero fast enough on next tries.

[sn0wball]

Is there a connection between gaining medals and heroes ? Anytime I am granted an award I wonder whether that was a hero missed.

[Forefall]

No, but getting medals is triggered by getting x kills. And the more kills you get, the more likely you'll get a hero. So getting a medal means you're on the right track to getting a hero!

[El_Jairo]

Ksasaki, if I'm mistaken your graph simply plots the chance to get a hero if you make X kills if you have Z left to get to max hero?
I'm afraid that this graph isn't plotting the whole story as a unit accumelates it's kills it get a chance to gain a hero each time it kills something. So I think the cumulative chance is more interesting.
I can't make plot right now but my guess is that it will be more lineair than the one you have now.
So sure, you have a small chance to get the hero but you get multiple shots at it. Even if you kill 10 enemy each time you would get 20 chances before you hit 300 and get hero for sure.
If you kill 10 and have 200 left to go you 5% chance to get the hero. So even if the odds wouldn't improve you would have 50% chance to have got a here by 200 kills. So in reality you have a fair chance of getting a hero before 200 kills, even if you only kill them one at a time. The most difficult part is getting to 100 kills though
Now with the higher KillsToMax numbers the chances are lower of course.

[adamoski]

how about this. take what u get and play it out. with the chance of different heroes on different units the gameplay can change every game.