Winners Atrittion

[kevinj]

"Exorcists with magic daggers" were my favourite!

[jorneto]

It would be interesting to see a graph tracking the number of people playing FoG comps each quarter since the start. Whilst not all FoG players enter competitions, I think it is likely to show a decline in player numbers, probably increasing.

Muz

Not in graphic format but... Taken from the slitherine registered competitions.

Year___#Tournaments___# Players
2009______087___________1965
2010______106___________2416
2011______102___________2026
2012______073___________1341
2013______044___________0676 (up to 15 August)

In 2012 there was already little more than half the 2010 number of players.

[zoltan]

It would be interesting to see a graph tracking the number of people playing FoG comps each quarter since the start. Whilst not all FoG players enter competitions, I think it is likely to show a decline in player numbers, probably increasing.

Muz

Not in graphic format but... Taken from the slitherine registered competitions.

Year___#Tournaments___# Players
2009______087___________1965
2010______106___________2416
2011______102___________2026
2012______073___________1341
2013______044___________0676 (up to 15 August)

In 2012 there was already little more than half the 2010 number of players.

Be interesting to see the data by country (particularly for the 'major' countries) if someone had the time.

[vexillia]

Taken from the Slitherine registered competitions.

Code: Select all

Year       #Tournaments  #Players  
----       ---           ---- 
2009       087           1965
2010       106           2416
2011       102           2026
2012       073           1341
2013       044           0676 (up to 15 August)

Am I correct in assuming the players column is not a "unique count" in that a player who played in more than one tourney counts more than once in the #Player column? Please confirm.

This is quite important as, if correct, the number of players would then be highly correlated with the number of tournaments and the ratio of players/tournaments would be a better measure as follows:

Code: Select all

Year      #Tournaments  #Players   Ratio
----       ---           ----      ----
2009       087           1965      22.6
2010       106           2416      22.8   
2011       102           2026      19.9
2012       073           1341      18.4
2013       044           0676      15.4 (up to 15 August)

This suggests a 33% decline in players per tournament and a 59% drop in the of number of tournaments rather than the 85% drop in player numbers suggested by the first analysis.

Also I think the lower 2012-13 figures contain contributions from a couple of factors:

• the shift from FOG AM to FOG R
• the failure of FOG AM V2 to convert players from V1

[hoodlum]

I think the figures confirm what I have seen at local tournaments. In hindsight I think the flaw has been sticking to 800 on a 6x4 table. In gw in NZ, the local comp scene has been more than happy to place limits on the list and the scenarios played. Similarly the DBR scene has revalued the points to give a better game.

The other point to note is that all games systems go through a cycle. The gw systems keep revising armies and rules on a regular basis and that keeps their game fresh as well as being a source of revenue.

The numbers show we are on the downward slide. V2 was too little too late and I doubt there will be any further changes in lists or rules.

Give it a few years and a new ancients rules sets will come about - it is all cyclic. maybe we should look to move from competition formats to social formats..

[jorneto]

Yes, the player numbers refere to inscriptions, not individual players. I also have the figures for average attendance. All broken down by country. As I am attending the ITC I'll try to post them tomorrow night.

[muz177]

So we know that numbers of people coming together to play in competitions is decreasing, as people become more time poor, and as other interests mean that players drift off to other periods, rule sets, or completely new things to do.

I am going to start up a new thread in the Tournaments section where people can log good ideas for 'competitions' that they have seen work, or have as ideas. This may encourage organizers to do something different, providing more variety to the competition scene. And it may be that the results are pre-announced as not forming part of the ELO results so that people do feel more bold with their army selections or ability to participate in a theme they may not have as much control over.

So if you have ideas for historical match up, doubles, 25mm, short play, campaign, 15mm, themes etc please contribute. Ty and keep the thoughts positive, as change is difficult for all people, and there will be problems able to be identified for all sorts of things, but if we approach making a change to the competition scene it may deliver more players for a longer period.

And I use 'competition' broadly, as being any 'get together' of gamers.

Go to it.

[hazelbark]

Be interesting to see the data by country (particularly for the 'major' countries) if someone had the time.

One of the issues is effectiveness of reporting by country. We had the same cycle in DBM. In the US the US I know full reports have not been entered for our big east coast cons. just local management issues.

[hazelbark]

Also I think the lower 2012-13 figures contain contributions from a couple of factors:

• the shift from FOG AM to FOG R
• the failure of FOG AM V2 to convert players from V1

V2 in the US was particularly difficult because the rules were only available here. One of the things that we have tried as a hobby is to support or local hobby stores. 2nd has been the number of people who order via amazon and barnes and noble. The loss of the distribution channel from flood gate level to virtually unavailable was also an adoption problem.

[ravenflight]

Also I think the lower 2012-13 figures contain contributions from a couple of factors:

• the shift from FOG AM to FOG R
• the failure of FOG AM V2 to convert players from V1

I'm definitely in both those camps.

I lost momentum in the 'digital only' balls up. I'm not holding onto it with zeal, but I already had lingering doubs, and then the 'only avail in digital' came about. I went over to FoG:R at about that time, and really have never come back. I've played one v2 tournament, and probably one or maybe 2 games of v2 to get a handle on the changes.

I'm not saying this stuff to pour salt in wounds, just to say why I'm not really playing FoG:AM. I don't know how many people lost interest along with me at about that time. IMHO It was a very big mistake, and some players may have found other interests (SAGA, FoG:R, staying with V1). This probably would have happened anyway. It seems to me that Slitherine basically said 'stuff you old timers, get with the program (pardon the pun) of get *expletived*''. It's sad, because they did turn it around fairly well, but perhaps a lot of the damage had already been done.

On my behalf, I'm running the MOAB FoG:R comp. If (for whatever reason) it doesn't run, I would play DBA and/or Saga... or possibly not go to MOAB at all. Interestingly, (talking about themes to generate interest) the MOAB theme for FoG:AM would more alienate me as well, but this is secondary. It is a mounted theme, and I only have one rather poor (poorer now in FoG V2 mounted army.

[jorneto]

I wish there was a quick and easy way to post a simple table...
First column is number of tournaments. Second is average attendance. All broken down by country and year.

.................2008.......2009.......2010.......2011........2012........2013 (up to 15Aug)

Australia.......1_14......7__23......6__21......7__18......1__19.......1__36
Belgium........0__0......1__22......3__20......3__20......2___5.......1__17
France.........5_17......9__21.....10__23.....10__24......6__21......5__10

Germany.......1__8......5__11......6__11......6__15.....10__16......6__19
G.Britain.....22_30.....25__37.....21__46....17__40.....11__38......6__22
Greece.........1_13......5__15......4__16......6__11......2__19......0___0

Ireland.........2_10......4__10......4__12......4__11......2___9......0___0
Italy............1_21......4__21......7__21......5__15......7__13......4__13
N.Zealand.....4_13......3__11......7__10......6__15......4__11......3___9

Portugal.......1__8......5___8......6__15......7__14......7__15......4__13
Spain..........9_16......3__23......9__17......8__15......6__14......2__14
USA...........13_18....16__17.....22__19....23__15.....15__15.....12__14

[philqw78]

Where did you get this info?

I'm sure that I've entered more than six comps in the UK this year, and I haven't entered all of them

[zoltan]

I wish there was a quick and easy way to post a simple table...
First column is number of tournaments. Second is average attendance. All broken down by country and year.

.................2008.......2009.......2010.......2011........2012........2013 (up to 15Aug)

Australia.......1_14......7__23......6__21......7__18......1__19.......1__36
Belgium........0__0......1__22......3__20......3__20......2___5.......1__17
France.........5_17......9__21.....10__23.....10__24......6__21......5__10

Germany.......1__8......5__11......6__11......6__15.....10__16......6__19
G.Britain.....22_30.....25__37.....21__46....17__40.....11__38......6__22
Greece.........1_13......5__15......4__16......6__11......2__19......0___0

Ireland.........2_10......4__10......4__12......4__11......2___9......0___0
Italy............1_21......4__21......7__21......5__15......7__13......4__13
N.Zealand.....4_13......3__11......7__10......6__15......4__11......3___9

Portugal.......1__8......5___8......6__15......7__14......7__15......4__13
Spain..........9_16......3__23......9__17......8__15......6__14......2__14
USA...........13_18....16__17.....22__19....23__15.....15__15.....12__14

So if we plot a simple graph of average attendance for each country what would the trend lines show?

[vexillia]

I wish there was a quick and easy way to post a simple table...

Here you go:

Code: Select all

               2008......2009.......2010.......2011.......2012.......2013 (up to 15Aug)

Australia......1_14......7__23......6__21......7__18......1__19......1__36
Belgium........0__0......1__22......3__20......3__20......2___5......1__17
France.........5_17......9__21.....10__23.....10__24......6__21......5__10

Germany..... ..1__8......5__11......6__11......6__15.....10__16......6__19
G.Britain.....22_30.....25__37.....21__46.....17__40.....11__38......6__22
Greece.........1_13......5__15......4__16......6__11......2__19......0___0

Ireland........2_10......4__10......4__12......4__11......2___9......0___0
Italy..........1_21......4__21......7__21......5__15......7__13......4__13
N.Zealand......4_13......3__11......7__10......6__15......4__11......3___9

Portugal.......1__8......5___8......6__15......7__14......7__15......4__13
Spain..........9_16......3__23......9__17......8__15......6__14......2__14
USA...........13_18.....16__17.....22__19.....23__15.....15__15.....12__14

Now to work out what the numbers mean.

[vexillia]

Here's a first cut review looking for trends:

Code: Select all

                   2008......2009.......2010.......2011.......2012.......2013 (up to 15Aug)
    Australia......1_14......7__23......6__21......7__18......1__19......1__36

Organised competitions - peaked in 2009-11 then nosed died.
Average attendance - stable with high figure for single competition in 2013.

Code: Select all

                   2008......2009.......2010.......2011.......2012.......2013 (up to 15Aug)
    G.Britain.....22_30.....25__37.....21__46.....17__40.....11__38......6__22

Organised competitions - in decline since 2009.
Average attendance - peaked in 2010 with steep decline in 2013.

Code: Select all

                   2008......2009.......2010.......2011.......2012.......2013 (up to 15Aug)
    Germany..... ..1__8......5__11......6__11......6__15.....10__16......6__19

Organised competitions - stable with peak in 2012.
Average attendance - a growing pool of regular players (bucking the trend?).

Code: Select all

                   2008......2009.......2010.......2011.......2012.......2013 (up to 15Aug)
    Italy..........1_21......4__21......7__21......5__15......7__13......4__13
    Portugal.......1__8......5___8......6__15......7__14......7__15......4__13

Organised competitions - essentially stable scene.
Average attendance - peaks in 2009-10 & 2010-12 respectively but generally seems stable.

Code: Select all

                   2008......2009.......2010.......2011.......2012.......2013 (up to 15Aug)
    Belgium........0__0......1__22......3__20......3__20......2___5......1__17
    Greece.........1_13......5__15......4__16......6__11......2__19......0___0
    Ireland........2_10......4__10......4__12......4__11......2___9......0___0

Organised competitions - peaked in 2009-11 & in steep decline thereafter.
Average attendance - generally a stable pool attending when they can.

Code: Select all

                   2008......2009.......2010.......2011.......2012.......2013 (up to 15Aug)
    France.........5_17......9__21.....10__23.....10__24......6__21......5__10
    N.Zealand......4_13......3__11......7__10......6__15......4__11......3___9
    Spain..........9_16......3__23......9__17......8__15......6__14......2__14
    USA...........13_18.....16__17.....22__19.....23__15.....15__15.....12__14

Organised competitions - peaked in 2010-11 & in decline thereafter.
Average attendance - all past their peaks but still with a stable pool of players.

[philqw78]

Statistics are great.

The NDL, was 5 competitions is now only one with 5 rounds. So that may make a difference. And a lot of the UK comps don't send anything to Martin for him to put in the rankings thingy. I have entered 7 of the six you all have for UK

And I think UK will pick up again. A lot is nothing to do with the rules but a lot to do with the major drivers (people) behind the competitions. The UK, as far as FoG is concerned, has been a bit lost for the past couple of years.

There have so far been at least 18 FoG AM comps in UK

[vexillia]

Statistics are great.

They certainly are. That must be why you've presented your own set complete with some novel arithmetic:

I have entered 7 of the six you all have for UK

[philqw78]

Statistics are great.

They certainly are. That must be why you've presented your own set complete with some novel arithmetic:

I have entered 7 of the six you all have for UK

Lies, damned lies and statistics

[vexillia]

Lies, damned lies and statistics

Sigh! Phil, I see your use of quotations is as good as your arithmetic:

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes colloquially used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.

The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli's works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death. Other coiners have therefore been proposed, and the phrase is often attributed to Twain himself.

Source - http://bit.ly/14BE8Ag

[philqw78]

I'm sure he said it just before he shot Doc Holiday at the OK Corral. This becuase he was a doctor of mathematics at Tombstone university who disagreed with the Duke's 'only six of the seven were magnificent' statistical analysis