Alec Axis vs Morris Allies

[Morris]

Apr 8th 1940 -------Apr 28th 1940 fair


Axis attack very careful & move forward slowly . maybe they have to supply the Luftwaffe . since Allies begin to win the air superior .(we have 4 FTR & one CV )


Apr 8th







Apr 28th

[Peter Stauffenberg]

I only see 2 German tanks and 1 German mech. Where is the 3rd tank and the 2nd mech?

[GogTheMild]

I only see 2 German tanks and 1 German mech. Where is the 3rd tank and the 2nd mech?

Sealion?

[Morris]

May 18th ----June 7th 1940 fair


Axis attack without rapid progress , As a bliz , time is limited to Axis .(Usually a 1939 Bliz should finish France campaign before June )




May 18th






June 7th

[Morris]

I only see 2 German tanks and 1 German mech. Where is the 3rd tank and the 2nd mech?

I was also thinking of this before I found them appeared from the Magnot direction

[Morris]

June 27th 1940 fair

Axis 's progress is still slow , although Italy join the war , but I don't think they will help a lot . Meanwhile we still have the airsuperior in France .

[Morris]

July 17th 1940 fair


Axis surrender . Here is the casualty report . It seems the high casualty bill made Axis player feel hopeless .

Another early surrender from Axis !

Looking forward to a Axis player who can survive until 1945 !!!

Thanks Alex ! & Good luck !

[Cybvep]

No surprises here. I would say that a failed Blitz is a death sentence 9 times out of 10. The Axis really has little room for failure early on.

[Schnurri]

Have to give Alec credit for not reloading and taking the results as they came. A blitz is never guaranteed of taking out Belgium but with proper positioning of the Panzers he should have been able to get two attacks (1 ARM and 1 INF) against Brussels in which case it would probably fall except with exceedingly bad results.

[richardsd]

Have to give Alec credit for not reloading and taking the results as they came. A blitz is never guaranteed of taking out Belgium but with proper positioning of the Panzers he should have been able to get two attacks (1 ARM and 1 INF) against Brussels in which case it would probably fall except with exceedingly bad results.

I never failed to take Brussels with the two attacks (and some Air) - so you would need some very very bad results for that

of course it is possible to take both Belgium and Holland if you get good results - although it doesn't seem to happen for me

[Schnurri]

I've hot seated it and you can fail to take Brussels around <5% of the time with proper positioning. Failing to get Holland is even more of a reality, but not so crucial.

[richardsd]

I've hot seated it and you can fail to take Brussels around <5% of the time with proper positioning. Failing to get Holland is even more of a reality, but not so crucial.

yes Holland is not crucial but does free up troops for further attack towards Paris, at least that's what I would do if I ever managed to take both!

[Cybvep]

Have to give Alec credit for not reloading and taking the results as they came.

Yeah, that was true sportsmanship. The temptation must have been great. After all, it was a game-deciding move.

[joerock22]

Have to give Alec credit for not reloading and taking the results as they came.

Yeah, that was true sportsmanship. The temptation must have been great. After all, it was a game-deciding move.

I bet Alec wanted Morris to replay some of his turns! Look at the air losses: 91 for Germany and only 58 for the Allies? I know some of the naval steps were from the CV, but that makes it what, 91 to 65? That seems abnormally skewed to me, unless Alec was doing something very wrong. I know the Germans lost some bomber steps, but probably not 25 of them. In my experience, higher German effectiveness usually allows them to fight to a draw against Allied fighters with slightly higher steps. So I don't know what was going on here. Hard to tell from the screenshots. But it does seem that Alec got lousy luck from combat results this game.

[Morris]

Ok , let me explain how the above bad result happen besides bad luck :


1 When we bliz in 1939 ,We usually just concentrate everything to take Belgium in one turn & leave the Holland aside , but Alex chose to attack both of them & failed ( it is very normal to fail if you can not attack Brussel but two ground attack ).then it caused Allies units won't suffer the 20 points effective down .


2 regarding to high lost of air , I just list several points for your reference :
a in turn 2-3 , west front did not get any FTR air cover , the tacs had to face Allie's FTR by themselves , so they lost a lot .

b in 1940 , since UK had produced one more FTR ,plus the Canadian one , Allies had 4FTR & a CV , but Axis had only two FTRs ( later they increase to 3) . So Allies control airsuperior during most time in 1940 .
Since Axis had to continue their attack without airsuperior , high loss of air is normal !

c I had said in this AAR that , this pbem does like another kind of Dyle plan ( even worse for Axis) . Please check out all my Dyle plan AARs (Peter , Diplomaticus ,,,etc ) , The Axis air loss are all around 82-103 during the France Campaign .

d I had got two chance to attack the Axis airunit by my ground unit . It scored 4 steps totally .

e stronger anti air ability since Allies did not suffer the 20 points effective penalty .

Is everyone clear now ?

[Crazygunner1]

That is about 550-600 pps in losses. What is normal air losses during french campaign? 40-50pps?

[Morris]

That is about 550-600 pps in losses. What is normal air losses during french campaign? 40-50pps?

it should be around 30-40 steps .

[Crazygunner1]

So lets say that 40 air losses is an average price of normal campaign, wich i think is low...but ok. 60 Airlosses more with Morris "Dyle" plan times 5,8pps (average cost of bombers and fighters) comes to 348 pps extra.

Now you generate full revenue from Belgium atleast 3 years until summer 43, probably longer. That is 54 turns x 3extra rev from Belgium comes to 162pps

The land lease destroyer doesn´t show up for allies, that´s another 50pps. That makes around 136pps

25% less in convoys from US to UK while US has not entered the war....that probably evens it out to +-0

The axis have suffered heavier losses earlier but will regain over the next years. UK will have suffered just as heavy losses as germany probably more and catching up for UK will take longer time than usual since smaller convoys.

I think these figures are more accurate if the Axis player goes for Sitzkrieg. If he Blitz the losses will be lower and fall of France will be earlier.

So basically you pay a high price as the allies to setback the germans a bit....

[Cybvep]

You realise that Alec failed to conquer Belgium and there was no Dyle here, right? This is the worst possible outcome - the Allies don't suffer the penalties of Dyle and they don't get the 20 efficiency penalty, either.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

I think it's actually good that attacking the low countries in a 1939 blitz attack is riskier than the historical 1940 attack (called sitzkrieg). If you really want to ensure you don't get a bad start as the Germans you do the sitzkrieg version. Both Holland and Belgium will fall in 1 turn for sure and you should take Paris no later than July / August (depending on weather).

Sitzkrieg means less chance of Sealion, but that option is what you sacrifice. If you want to do Sealion you go for blitzkrieg with the added risk of the offensive backfiring like in this game.

I believe Alec felt he had to do the blitzkrieg because Morris is known for his Dyle attack with his Allies. Too bad this game was started before the v2.12 update made Dyle less lucrative by spawning the Canadians in the Spring of 1940 regardless of Dyle or not. Maybe Alec would have done the sitzkrieg with the updated version?

I think this game is completely lost for the Axis so maybe Morris can convince Alec for a restart and use the v2.12 update? Alec has shown good sportsmanship playing on with his unfortunate position. Maybe Morris can return the favor.