Joe v. Morris Round II (Joe's AAR)

[Crazygunner1]

If Joe slows down during this winter he will save around 40 barrels/turn * 7 turns and that is about 280 barrels. Makes around 500 barrels for 43 summer action. I am quite confident that Joe will secure the oilfields in the south in 43 also.

If Joe is active during winter like winter 41 then he will have an easier summer 43 campaing and can probably let a lot of his oil driven units stay put and only use in case of emergency.

I doubt that Joe will take the Caucasus. He wouldn't be able to hold it for long, anyway. Most likely, he would have to spend more oil to take Caucasus than he would gain out of it.

and if you are not fighting for the initiative on the eastern front with the russians in 43 you won´t make it to Berlin before 45

Right... Wasn't Joe the one who was pushed back to Omsk by Morris and then he counter-attacked and actually won the game?

My guess is that Morris will have no chance but to give up Caucasus without a fight, maybe place some corps there.

You are completely right and if memory serves me well Joe saved much of his russian army and fought for the initiative in winter 42 and early 43 and won....Morris had put most of his heavy units in the frontline forest just outside Omsk and they got destroyed so the tide turned rather quickly and Joe had an easy march all the way to the borders of Germany in 43. So that rather proves my statement wouldn´t you say?

[Cybvep]

The point is that unlike the Axis, the Allies can recover from their defeats. If the Axis' situation looks hopeless in 1942, then they will probably lose, but if the Allied situation looks hopeless in 1942, then they can still win this. Morris actually "deserves" to lose this game, because he made many mistakes, but giving up as the Allies in 1942 is pointless. I think that Joe has an advantage, but until we see what Morris is planning to do with the western Allies in 1943 and how strong the Soviets will be in 1943, the final outcome will remain uncertain IMO.

[ncali]

The point is that unlike the Axis, the Allies can recover from their defeats. If the Axis' situation looks hopeless in 1942, then they will probably lose, but if the Allied situation looks hopeless in 1942, then they can still win this. Morris actually "deserves" to lose this game, because he made many mistakes, but giving up as the Allies in 1942 is pointless. I think that Joe has an advantage, but until we see what Morris is planning to do with the western Allies in 1943 and how strong the Soviets will be in 1943, the final outcome will remain uncertain IMO.

I certainly don't think Morris should quit at this point. That said, I think it's quite possible Joe's PP income is close to parity or even slightly better than the Allies. Joe has all of England and Scotland, Moscow, Leningrad, and the Ukraine. Unless Morris's income is more than I think it is, things will probably look better and better for Joe as the game progresses. Oil and manpower is probably his main constraint at this point given the increasingly formidable army he has built. Neither should be critical since key Axis oil production is out of Allied air-range. The Caucuses are also quite close now.

Again, it will be best to see it play out. I really respect players - like Morris (and PeterF in the current game with Morris) - who are willing to see games through to their bitter end.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

Recklessness is clearly Morris' biggest weakness...

True, combined with impatience. Moving towards the Axis in the south in the late September 1942 turn when there is a chance for fair weather in October is risky. I guess Morris wanted to get in contact with the Axis before the bad weather begins. That impatience cost him quite a few mech units. Had he instead waited until the bad weather had started he would not have lost them. OK, then Germans get a chance to withdraw, but there were no German tanks at the front to take out anyway.

Joe is so good at retreating I think that Morris should have been satisfied with just pushing the front lines westwards during the winter offensive. He can't expect to kill the panzers until the Germans run out of terrain to give away.

Still, I don't think we can claim that this turn was a complete disaster for the Russians. Their tanks are still intact. So I have a feeling Morris attacked in his turn and Joe got good weather next turn to wipe out some tanks. THEN it would be a disaster.

I'm sure that Joe feels he's making mistakes here and there, but the rest of us surely can't see them. I see a bit of desperation in Morris'es offensives here. He probably feels he's behind schedule and must take chances to compensate. That often leads to taking risks that can easily backfire.

[Crazygunner1]

Recklessness is clearly Morris' biggest weakness...

Still, I don't think we can claim that this turn was a complete disaster for the Russians. Their tanks are still intact. So I have a feeling Morris attacked in his turn and Joe got good weather next turn to wipe out some tanks. THEN it would be a disaster.

I agree, also think that is what happened

[ncali]

Recklessness is clearly Morris' biggest weakness...

Still, I don't think we can claim that this turn was a complete disaster for the Russians. Their tanks are still intact. So I have a feeling Morris attacked in his turn and Joe got good weather next turn to wipe out some tanks. THEN it would be a disaster.

I agree, also think that is what happened

Morris called it the Rostov disaster "right before severe winter" so I think we haven't yet seen the whole thing play out. My personal prediction is it gets worse for the Russians. Maybe clear weather in November and severe winter then hit?

[Morris]

Recklessness is clearly Morris' biggest weakness...

Still, I don't think we can claim that this turn was a complete disaster for the Russians. Their tanks are still intact. So I have a feeling Morris attacked in his turn and Joe got good weather next turn to wipe out some tanks. THEN it would be a disaster.

I agree, also think that is what happened

Hi guys , What kind of loss will you consider it as a disaster ? Do you mean the one which I was beaten down & never be able to get up ?

But actually , to lose a whole line of units in one turn without a step left ! ( This does show the excellent well planed & execute ability of Joe ) It is terrible ! & USSR was too poor to afford this loss !

I know this is just like a boxing match in Las Vegas , most of the fans are Joe's . But do you want to watch a long exciting match or just hope Joe beat me down at the first round ?

Allies is Dying but not dead ....

[Cybvep]

I know this is just like a boxing match in Las Vegas , most of the fans are Joe's . But do you want to watch a long exciting match or just hope Joe beat me down at the first round ?

The more evenly matched the opponents are, the better. The best games are those which keep you interested right to the very end.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

The Russians can easily recover from losing 5-6 units in a turn. That is not a disaster.

A disaster is more like the German situation after the Russian encirclement of Stalingrad. Germany didn't only lose the 6th Army, but they had to abandon all their gains in the south east and withdraw back to Rostov. The disaster came from not being able to stabilize the front line and give up a lot of ground to not collapse completely.

Operation Kursk was a disaster for the Germans because they lost their armor reserve. That allowed the Russians to become bolder which led to an even bigger disaster when Army Group Center was destroyed in 1944.

I this game you have a similar situation. Germany inflicted a serious blow on the Russians by killing the front line units, but the Russian armor reserve is still intact. If that reserve engaged the Germans and then was wiped out THEN it would be a disaster. Not because the armor units were lost, but because the Russians would not take advantage of the bad weather to push the Germans far to the west.

We have to remember that prior to this turn the Russians have had low losses since they have retreated. So one turn with heavy losses is something the Russians can afford.

[Crazygunner1]

You are right, but if the russians loose their heavy units, they wont be much of à threat despite à huge army of corps. Also they wont be able to turn the tide with to few heavy units.

It's actually quite a remarkable achievement the germans pulled off after the fall of stalingrad, be able to stabalize the front and even massup for a new offensive.

[Crazygunner1]

Morris!

Joe might be a more tactical skilled player. But considering that you are mostly only using agressivness and attacking every chance you get, you get a long way. Playing this way you Will manage to beat opponents that are better than you and in some sence even scare elite players.

[Cybvep]

You are right, but if the russians loose their heavy units, they wont be much of à threat despite à huge army of corps. Also they wont be able to turn the tide with to few heavy units.

I agree. You lose time, if nothing else, and time is a resource in CEAW. Building a new ARM takes 3 turn and you need ~5 turns in total to get it into action in a reasonably good shape efficiency-wise. The Soviets cannot harm the Germans using INFs alone, especially when they don't control Moscow and Leningrad.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

Morris still has 7+ armor units in the south. Those units alone are enough to force the Germans to withdraw in the severe winter. The Germans will lose efficiency so corps units can initiate attacks and armor units can finish off German units unless the Germans run fast westwards.

Morris was clever enough to withdraw his armor units during the German 1942 offensive. So his firepower potential is still intact. If he can push the Germans a bit during the upcoming winter he might afford to not retreat during 1943 and let the Germans bleed if they dare to attack.

I think Morris'es big problem in the east is the lack of corps units. He needs to do like Joerock and attack with armor and let corps units screen the armor after attack. If the armor units are left at the front line then they can be killed in counter attacks.

Morris has built a lot of armor units, at the expense of corps units. Finding the right balance is not easy. Too few armor units and you won't get anywhere. Too many and you have no coherent front line.

I believe that Morris is used to intimidate his Axis opponent with concentrated Russian armor power. It's very easy for the Axis to panic being faced with the Russian armor offensive that Morris performed in 1941. Germany would have been crippled unless they retreated so far west as Joerock did. So I can really understand why Morris has played like he did in this game. His strategy will work very well against most Axis players. You need a player of Joerock's caliber to not become scared of the Russian steamroller. Joe saw how he could exploit the weakness of Morris'es strategy.

[Morris]

The Russians can easily recover from losing 5-6 units in a turn. That is not a disaster.

There were not 5-6 corps or Gars , There are Mechs & tank .equal to 320pp ! It is not easy for Russian to recover after they lost Moscow , Leningrad ! Maybe it is not fatal but serious enough !

[Morris]

Morris!

Joe might be a more tactical skilled player. But considering that you are mostly only using agressivness and attacking every chance you get, you get a long way. Playing this way you Will manage to beat opponents that are better than you and in some sence even scare elite players.

But I did remember you scared me in our pbem in Russia

[joerock22]

Turn 59 – November 4, 1942

Morris retreats again in the south, a good distance by the looks of it. I straighten my line but otherwise hold position. I am glad, because severe winter arrived at the end of my turn! There was a very low chance of that happening, so I was quite surprised.

Fortunately for me, Germany developed fixed defenses lv. 4 (+1 survivability) last turn. And I decided to upgrade my forces in the north this turn rather than waiting, just in case severe winter did arrive. My double line is not yet complete, but the Red Army should perform even worse than they did last winter if Morris makes more of his manpower-draining attacks.

I had focused on fixed defenses a few turns ago hoping to get it before winter, and it worked. I also hope to get anti-tank guns lv. 2 soon (lagging behind a bit here). I’m also now lagging well behind the British in dog fight (they have lv. 4 already). Morris is having better luck than me in that area. Hopefully I won’t have to engage the RAF in major combat any time soon.

Overall, I think the early severe winter helps me. Morris’s heavy forces in the south are too far away to strike on turn 1, and the weather will hinder their advance. I may be able to retreat just a little bit and avoid any combat during the winter at all!

USSR South (post-turn)



So the 1942 summer campaign has at last drawn to a close. Here is the casualty screenshot:



Using the screenshot I took in March, I can calculate the final casualty totals for the campaign as follows:

Germany
- Infantry – 66 steps (1 unit)
- Mechs/tanks – 31 steps (0 units)
- Air – 37 steps (0 units)

Russian
- Infantry – 386 steps (37 units)
- Mechs/tanks – 79 steps (8 units)
- Air – 24 steps (0 units)

Overall, it was an excellent campaign for me. Concentration of German force, plus no defense upgrades for the Russian infantry or mechs were two major factors in the disparity between the casualty totals. The Red Army was kept off balance and on defense the entire time. And the German Army had a consistent 15-30 point effectiveness advantage. I know the situation could turn around at any time, but I am optimistic that I can survive the winter relatively unscathed and go on the offensive again in the spring of 1943.

[Cybvep]

So Morris retreated, after all. A smart choice, given the circumstances. However, Stalingrad is close, so you will either have to withdraw or fight Morris in winter... and German movement rates suxx during winter.

Anyway, this wasn't really a disaster for Morris, but a simple setback.

[Morris]

one question :

When will the Free French 's troops spawn ? I remembered it happen in Oct 1942 . Am I right ? Or depend on someother sector ?

[Kragdob]

one question :

When will the Free French 's troops spawn ? I remembered it happen in Oct 1942 . Am I right ? Or depend on someother sector ?

If Armistice is accepted they spawn when Vichy is DOWed

If Armistice is rejected it is turn 57 I believe.

[Plaid]

I know this is just like a boxing match in Las Vegas , most of the fans are Joe's . But do you want to watch a long exciting match or just hope Joe beat me down at the first round ?

Allies is Dying but not dead ....

What I can see now, is kicking allies, who are already on the ground. Boxing does not encourage such action, as far as I know