What is the rules about when the Russian Winter should start

[Peter Stauffenberg]

Happycat and I have played until January 1942 and still we haven't seen the Russian Winter. The rules say that the Russian Winter with all the effects should appear in either October or November each year. So how is it possible we have come to January without a sign of the Winter? We play PBEM. Is it maybe a PBEM bug?

I also noticed Russians partisans appear very seldom in our game. For the last 3-4 turns I haven't seen a single partisan. Since the attack started in April / May 1941 I have only received 3-4 partisans in total. When I played against myself hotseat I remember turns when the Russians even got 3 partisans during one turn. The average was about 1 partisan per turn. Sometimes no partisans appeared, but sometimes 2 or more appeared.

Have anyone else played CeaW PBEM and not seen Russian Winter arriving at all during October, November and December? Have you also experienced that partisans appear very seldom?

What is the probability a partisan may appear each turn? And how many can you get?

What is the formula for when the Russian Winter can appear? Shouldn't it be something like this:
October: 50%. November: 75%. December: 100%. I don't think Russia has ever experienced December without Winter weather. So the Winter should start in December at the latest.

[firepowerjohan]

The random is set to be 25% for every endded Axis turn from October-February where there winter event will fire only once and at leist once. By this probability, very rarely will the winter event be delayed all the way to January or February though. You have any suggestion if the 25% is ok or how would you want to change it?

[Peter Stauffenberg]

I think the probability for Winter is too low. Just look at the statistics.

Chance of Winter no later than October 20 1941: 25%
Chance of Winter no later than November 9 1941: (1 - 0.75 ^2) = 44%
Chance of Winter no later than November 29 1941: (1 - 0.75 ^3= = 58%
Chance of Winter no later than December 19 1941: (1 - 0.75 ^4) = 68%
Chance of Winter no later than January 8 1941: (1 - 0.75 ^5) = 76%
Chance of Winter no later than January 28 1941: (1 - 0.75 ^6) = 82%
Chance of Winter no later than February 17 1941: (1 - 0.75 ^7) = 87%

This means that 24% of the years will not see Winter before January. 13% of the years will not see Winter at all. 42% of the years will not see Winter before December. This is not very accurate when you know about the Russian Winter usually starts to arrive.

If you want a simple formula you can chance the percentage chance of Winter to 33%. That yields these numbers:
Chance of Winter no later than October 20 1941: 33%
Chance of Winter no later than November 9 1941: (1 - 0.67 ^2) = 55%
Chance of Winter no later than November 29 1941: (1 - 0.67 ^3= = 70%
Chance of Winter no later than December 19 1941: (1 - 0.67 ^4) = 80%
Chance of Winter no later than January 8 1941: (1 - 0.67 ^5) = 86%
Chance of Winter no later than January 28 1941: (1 - 0.67 ^6) = 91%
Chance of Winter no later than February 17 1941: (1 - 0.67 ^7) = 94%

These numbers are much better, but 14% of the years won't see Winter before January and 6% of the Winters won't see Winter at all.

I think you should use the formula above with the 33% chance of Winter every turn from October till November 30th. The turn after this one (December 20th) should ALWAYS have Winter. This way you prevent the strange situations that Winter will not appear at all in December or January in Russia. I don't think Russia has ever had other than Winter in December or January. At least not in those parts of Russia considered to be within the Arctic climate region (north and centre).

[firepowerjohan]

The event once so if it fails all the way to February it will fire in February automatically. Maybe the February limit should be pushed to January instead so harsh winter always fires at latest in January.

[SMK-at-work]

February seems a bit late for a winter event - it's getting on to Spring by then!!

[firepowerjohan]

February seems a bit late for a winter event - it's getting on to Spring by then!!

The winter event simulates spring mud as well hence the slow movement that stays on for 5 turns. The coldest month in Europe is January, where do you live Stalins?

[davetheroad]

It should be possible to check out the start of winter for european russia for the 1940's and base the chance on that.
I think the latest start should be December as russian survival can depend on it.

Another thought, the Baltic states and finland do not have winter weather. this can cause a gamey effect. germany attacks in winter 1940 concentrating on the Baltic area because there is no winter effect almost to Leningrad.

Does winter weather always finish on the same turn? if so what is it as i always seem to be caught out.

Dave

[firepowerjohan]

AT_WAR_PRODUCTION_INCREASE 10
FULL_MOBILIZATION_PRODUCTION_INCREASE 20

Countries gain 10% on war effort when they are at war so invading USSR in 1940 will give them +10 for a very long time until their mobilization in 1941.

Invading in 1940 is an option though (as should be) but then you need Paris very early to be able to prepare.

[SMK-at-work]

I live in New Zealand - where February is nice and toasty!!

However in Russia the mud - rasputitsa - comes well before and after winter - not in it at all - the first snows had fallen and melted by early October - by early october it had frozen again and things were good for a while, so the initial mud in Russia doesn't feature at all in the timing of weather for CEAW

[davetheroad]

it seems winter rains started in October with the exception of winter 43/44 where they started in november

the earliest the spring mud ended was early april in spring 44 and the latest end of may in spring 42

so winter should start from october with a chance of a late start in Early november

winter ending should vary from early april until late may

This suggests a MINIMUM winter length of 7 turns and a maximum winter length of 10 turns.

Dave

[SMK-at-work]

although to be a bit more realistic the mud should only give a "Weather imparis movement" result - not a drop in effectiveness which came with the extreme cold.

[vypuero]

yes it was combined into one effect for simplicity. It could be adjusted at some time in the future for a more realistic mud & snow system, maybe.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

I wonder how many turns is the minimum the Winter effect will last. Can the Russian player we so unlucky the Winter effect will start as late as February and the turn after the snow appear the normal weather comes back in March. Winter in Russia for only 1 turn is highly unrealistic.

I liked the idea someone proposed that the number of turns the Winter effect will be in place is between 7-10 turns. So if it starts late then it ends late as well.

The chances for Russia to survive in 1942 depends upon some quiet Winter turns when Russian can rebuild her strength without being pounded by the Germans all the time.

I think the Winter in Russia should be guaranteed in December, January and February.

The best option would be to have both mud and winter in addition to clear weather in Russia.

During mud weather the efficiency should not be affected (or the efficiency should be maybe 10 lower for both sides), but movement should be max 2 for all land units. Air units should have halved bombardment levels so ground strikes should be less effective.

Winter weather could have the same effects as today, but with the addition of air bombardments being halved.

If you add mud you can have a rule like the following:

1. Mud may start in October. 33% chance each turn the will be snow for mud weather starting from October 19.
2. The turn after the first mud there is a 33% chance each turn there will be snow weather.
3. The weather will automatically be snow December 8 unless snow started earlier. So you can theoretically go
from clear to snow in December if there was no mud earlier.
4. Snow continues for all of December, January till February 27.
5. There is a 33% chance for mud every turn starting March 16
6. The turn after the first mud there is a 33% the next turn will be clear
7. Clear weather will automatically come come on May 13 unless it came earlier.
8. Then clear weather will continue until October.

[firepowerjohan]

It is in the script for next patch, the

WINTER_DURATION 5

so the length is same so that you cannto be lucky and get faster winter.

[SMK-at-work]

Stauffenberg I think some mud shuold be compulsory - ie you should not be able to go straight from clear to snow - descriptions of the muddy season are fairly clear in that it always happened, unlike unusually cold winters for example!!

[Peter Stauffenberg]

What happens quite often in Arctic weather climate is that you can go in the Fall from clear weather till frost quickly and even have early snow. Then the weather can become warmer again and the snow melts. The result is mud. Then it can shift back and forth between mud and snow. The same happens in the Spring as well. You may get some thaw and mud and the it freezes all over again.

When I was young we usually had our first snow in Oslo around mid October. Sometimes late October. We might have had some muddy period with rain before the first snow, but if the snow came early it could have been dry when it came.

Now the situation is very different. We usually have rainy weather in October and November. So the mud period is much longer and the snow much shorter. Maybe we get a little snow in November and December, but it will soon melt again. Last Winter there was no snow whatsoever and it rained a lot on New Year in Oslo. The temperature was +7-8 degrees. Definitely muddy weather. The snow started to melt in late February / early March and was completely gone in late March / early April. When I was young the snow only melted in April and was gone about the beginning of May.

I know the climate in Russia is even more severe than Oslo. So they had even longer periods with snow.

I agree with you that usually the transition between clear and snow had mud between them, but some years the muddy period was very short.

If we have a fixed Winter period (proposed 5 turns by FirepowerJohan) then it doesn't matter so much when the Winter starts. A late start means a later German 1942 offensive.

I think 5 Winter turns in maybe too little. Maybe 6 turns is better. Each turn is 20 days so 6 turns in 120 days, i. e. 3 months. That is more realistic imho.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

It is in the script for next patch, the

WINTER_DURATION 5

so the length is same so that you cannto be lucky and get faster winter.

That is a good idea. It means a late Winter start means a delayed German 1942 offensive. So the consequences of being unlucky with a late Winter is not so bad.

But I think it's maybe better to have WINTER_DURATION 6. That means the Winter will last 3 months. It's about right and will give the Russians some time to recover.

[SMK-at-work]

Yes the mud in 1941 is said to come after the 1st snows.

[davetheroad]

WINTER_DURATION 6 would be better as it gives a winter of 120 days or 4 months

however note that the movement penalty applies for the whole winter but the effectiveness drop is only temporary. The commandered up german forces recover effectiveness fast and after about half the winter they are blasting away at the russians again. so you see the 1042 summer offensive actually starts in winter!

Dave

[davetheroad]

Actually i am confused about this issue and what is proposed in the patch

In the current game we have a variable winter starting date and a fixed end date YES?

the problem is a late winter start can result in a very short winter ?

for the patch it is proposed that all winters have the same length but still with a variable starting date?

If true this is as bad as the original method as you will get early starting winters ending in February!!!

You will need a default winter of 8 turns, not 5

dave