Victor (axis) vs Pion Urpo (allies).

[gerones]

Turn 76. October 10, 1943

Wehrmacht AGC forces continued their retreat to Poland with the soviets following them. Vitebesk was left behind by the russians that started to occupy eastern Poland hexes.

In Italy, British X Armoured Corps landed south of Rome and American I Armoured Corps counterattacked the Wehrmacht in Florence forcing a mech corps to retreat. Furthermore one of the fortresses of Gustav line was seized by the allies.

Images below showing the situation at the start of axis turn:

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Winter caught the retreating german forces in Eastern Poland which slowed their movements. Anyway, the soviets will suffer the winter too. In Romania, the situation is becoming really difficult: this turn Mikko dropped a soviet airborne unit and there are a lot of Red Army elite units which can achieve a breakthrough here in any moment. OKH reinforced a little Werhmacht positions in Romania.

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In Italy, the things were really successful for the germans: a massive german counterattack (3 inf corps) destroyed the recently landed british X Armoured Corps south of Rome thus destroying the beachhead. Furthermore, Wehrmacht forces with air support from Luftwaffe Ju-88´s attacked Free French Armoured Corps reducing it to 3 steps. Venice was retaken by SS Wiking.

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In other things, a german uboat flotilla revealed a significant allied fleet south of Ireland that was escorting american land units: preparations for a landing in western Europe on the way.

[gerones]

Turn 77. October 30, 1943.

Fair weather everywhere this turn. In the last allies turn, british and americans achieved to connect their forces in Italy thus increasing from 1 to 3 the supply level of the units landed north of Rome. This has been surely important for the allies since with only 1 supply point they could be in trouble if the germans would manage to send more reinforcements to Italy.

In Eastern Front, Finland, in last allies turn offered an armistice to USSR that was accepted by the soviets. This way, the german income has been reduced from 140 to 125. This wasn´t the worst thing happened in this front since the soviets got a breakthrough of the weak axis defensive line in Romania and they have fair chances for forcing the romanians to join them in this turn.

OKH decided to reinforce Italy and to build a defensive line that pretty match with the historical Gothic line near Florence. Furthermore, the Free French armoured corps was destroyed by a single hit from a Luftwaffe tac wing.

In Romania, Wehrmacht finally started its withdrawal in order to build a new defensive line in romanian Carpathian mountains taking advantage of a terrain that it is good for the defense. In the northern sector, the remaining and halved forces of the Army Group Center reached pre-Barbarossa borders but they probably will retreat further west to form a defensive line in Vistula river.

And finally, risky air reconnaissance Luftwaffe missions over England revealed no significant but evident preparations for an allied invasion of Western Europe.

Screenshots taken at the end of axis turn:

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Kriegsmarine U-boats withdrawal to France-Germany naval bases is about to be completed.

[gerones]

Turn 78. November 19, 1943.

Weather turns to winter this turn.

As expected, the soviets entered Bucharest thus forcing the surrender of Romania that joined the allies. In the northern sector of Eastern front, Red Army units entered East Prussia. Bulgaria has been isolated from the rest of axis countries but it won´t be long till this country fall into soviet hands now that it cannot be railed any unit.

In Italy the bad weather surely will slow allied operations so the germans will be able to send more reinforcements. Images below show the situation at the end of axis turn.

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U-boats are now in their respective naval bases for repairs and upgrades.

[gerones]

Turn 81. January 18, 1944.

December 1943 turns saw the soviets progressing slowly in the Carpathian front. Furthermore, the soviets pushed a little in Bug river sector stablishing a bridgehead there, they captured Konigsberg so all East Prussia is now in soviet hands and they reached Vistula river line. German and hungarian forces have formed a double defensive line from Danzig to Timisoara hoping to stop the Red Army. Constanta is still in german hands but it won´t for long. Bulgaria is still axis but peace negotiations with USSR seem to have started and soon this country also will change side as Romania.

In Italy mud weather really helped the germans in their defensive positions. Only the allied air forces, operating from fair weather hexes, were able to make damage to the german forces in Italy. Anyway, the front seems to be stabilized around Florence and it is planned to also form a double defensive line here.

1944 has started with a rather precarious situation of the german army that has lost many infantry corps units in 1943, most of them in Eastern front. Germany had 28 infantry corps by the end of 1942 and in december 1943 this number was reduced to 17 infantry corps. Mech corps have been reduced from 7 units to 5 and armoured corps stay the same (5). What has been increased significantly is the number of garrison units from 19 to 55, units that now are much needed for defensive purposes.

Below are showed the current situation at the end of axis turn, once the new reinforcements have arrived to the several fronts where they are needed. As usual, highlighted areas are zoomed to level 3.

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Zoomed images of Eastern front show main elite soviet units that surely will lead the offensive actions of the Red Army in this new year. The germans still have a very little chance to win this game but it will depend on how strong will be D-Day operation and how well will be defended the Eastern borders. Luftwaffe forces actions be will focussed in destroying elite soviet units trying to reduce the offensive strength of the Red Army.

[Diplomaticus]

Thanks so much for taking the time/effort to put together such a well-crafted AAR.

As you say, things look extremely bleak for Axis. Looking back, I trace a lot of the trouble for Axis to what didn't happen in 1940/41: Paris didn't get taken until very late, meaning that Germany was prevented from really seizing the initiative and making the most of a period when the UK is usually weak and isolated. Second, Axis didn't achieve decisive results in Barbarossa 1941. Russian forces were bruised but unbroken and so were able to take the initiative away from Axis permanently as soon as the fair weather in '41 was over.

I've been impressed with how effectively you've managed to hold off the Allies, given the above. You kept Italy in the game until about the historical surrender date, and you've fought furiously and well to try to fend off the attacks of a very intimidating Red Army.

I think the lesson in this for all Axis players is that it just isn't enough to conquer France in the summer of '40 and mount a big Russian offensive in '41. IMO, the onus is on the Axis to achieve nothing less than spectacular results before the winter of 1941--results that will so stun and hobble the Allies that it'll take them until 1943 to recover and until '45 to reach the heart of the Reich.

I leave it up to you what, exactly, the "spectacular results" might be. That's up to each player's notion of Grand Strategy. I will say, however, that among all the changes to this game since vanilla, I like best that the Axis doesn't have to completely conquer England and/or Russia in order to win the game. Those results are indeed "spectacular," but in the old game it often felt like you had no choice--it was either that or pretty much guaranteed defeat in about 1943.

[gerones]

Thanks so much for taking the time/effort to put together such a well-crafted AAR.

As you say, things look extremely bleak for Axis. Looking back, I trace a lot of the trouble for Axis to what didn't happen in 1940/41: Paris didn't get taken until very late, meaning that Germany was prevented from really seizing the initiative and making the most of a period when the UK is usually weak and isolated. Second, Axis didn't achieve decisive results in Barbarossa 1941. Russian forces were bruised but unbroken and so were able to take the initiative away from Axis permanently as soon as the fair weather in '41 was over.

I've been impressed with how effectively you've managed to hold off the Allies, given the above. You kept Italy in the game until about the historical surrender date, and you've fought furiously and well to try to fend off the attacks of a very intimidating Red Army.

I think the lesson in this for all Axis players is that it just isn't enough to conquer France in the summer of '40 and mount a big Russian offensive in '41. IMO, the onus is on the Axis to achieve nothing less than spectacular results before the winter of 1941--results that will so stun and hobble the Allies that it'll take them until 1943 to recover and until '45 to reach the heart of the Reich.

I leave it up to you what, exactly, the "spectacular results" might be. That's up to each player's notion of Grand Strategy. I will say, however, that among all the changes to this game since vanilla, I like best that the Axis doesn't have to completely conquer England and/or Russia in order to win the game. Those results are indeed "spectacular," but in the old game it often felt like you had no choice--it was either that or pretty much guaranteed defeat in about 1943.

Thanks for your comments. In fact, I have enjoyed doing this AAR as well as I enyoy reading AAR´s from others players. Many other wargames forums out there have their own AAR section and they all are interesting to read.

About the game, as I have pointed above, the possibilities for the axis to win this game are minimal. 1943 german campaign in East has been a poor one and this has had a simple consequence: the chances of winning has been much reduced. Strategy choosen by the germans for 1943 against the soviets has been wrong and this proves that the axis can´t afford to make any mistake in this scenario. But regardless of this, I think we have achieved to balance this scenario (Eastern Front) so keeping in mind that is the most important scenario, we can also say that the game is now well balanced.

[avoran]

But from the POV of a far-from-expert player who is bound to make mistakes saying that one side can afford to make mistakes and the other can't is the same as saying that the game is unbalanced.

No?

Sorry if this is the wrong place for my comment, it kind of burst out in response to leridano's last post Thx for the AAR, btw!

[richardsd]

I would say 'no, not realy'

this is part of the learning curve, equally skilled players will find the game well balanced

the challenge you articulate is determined mostly by the nature of what is being simulated - first the massive success, then total defeat of the Axis

it is very difficult to simulate this in a way that is balanced accross both sides AND differing skill levels

what most people see as the easier learning curve of the Allies, is really just that the Allies are supposed to 'win' in the simulation and you feel a lot better losing by not quite taking out the Axis - similarly its not very nice to lose as the Axis in 43

although if people played the game to conclusion it is very seldom over before 44

[gerones]

But from the POV of a far-from-expert player who is bound to make mistakes saying that one side can afford to make mistakes and the other can't is the same as saying that the game is unbalanced.

No?

Sorry if this is the wrong place for my comment, it kind of burst out in response to leridano's last post Thx for the AAR, btw!

It can be said that the game is balanced from the new victory conditions point of view so what I meant in my last post is that if you, as the axis, do the things right in the East you will have a rather good chance to hold until 1945 and then to win. So I did not say that allies can afford to make mistakes without consequences since one of the things that the allies have to fight against is time. For the allied player is not only not to make major strategy mistakes but also to arrive to Berlin and Hamburg in time.

[avoran]

OK, I think I get it. Now I just need to 'get in' in game

[gerones]

Turn 82. February 7, 1944.

Soviets continued to push along Bug river line last turn destroying a german mech corps there. Another attacks were done all over the East front line specially in Romanian mountains and close to Lvov. Here you are a zoomed image of the entire Eastern front at the start of axis turn:

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Germans finally decided to abandon Bug river defensive line taking advantage that this turn it was fair weather. New defensive line will be in Vistula river line.

In Italy, the allies finally entered Rome so now the front line goes from Ancona to Genoa.

No signals of a landing in France.

[gerones]

Turn 83. February 27, 1944.

Current situation at the start of axis turn:

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As expected, in the last allied turn, the soviets crossed the Bug river without almost opposition and they occupied the ground abandoned by the germans. Without letting the germans to catch their breath, they inmediately attacked german positions in the west bank of the Vistula river achieving to form two bridgeheads. One of them was formed by 3rd Guards Army 2 hexes NW of Warsaw. And other one formed by 6th Tank Army and 2nd Shock Army was situated SE of Warsaw.

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This turn it was mud weather so no chance for the Wehrmacht to counterattack the bridgeheads. This way, the germans took this turn to reinforce their positions all over the front line in the East. 3rd Guards Army bridgehead will be the first objective if the weather turns to fair in the next turn.

Bulgaria changes side on last turn once the soviets entered Sofia:

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[gerones]

Turn 84. March 18, 1944

Fair weather this turn.

Nothing relevant happens in Eastern front in last allied turn because of the weather.

In Italy, the allies entered Ancona so left flank of german forces in Florence is now threatened. But may be the main threat for Germany in the west is another one: OKH estimates that the allies might launch an amphibious landing in Holland-North Germany. Allied ships minesweeping activity was very high so 3 german uboats flotillas were sunk. Germany simply had not reserves for facing a landing in the west so may be the end will be sooner than expected if the allies finally decide to directly land in this area.

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Anyway, the plans of attacking the soviets will not be cancelled:

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So this turn Wehrmacht forces supported by all available Luftwaffe forces in Eastern Front counterattacked and destroyed 3rd Guards Army thus destroying the bridgehead there. New reinforcements are to come to Poland to cover the cities-fortresses from possible airborne operations (sorry but I forgot to take screenshots in Poland at the end of axis turn).

And finally a shot with the situation in Italy at the end of axis turn:

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[gerones]

Turn 85. April 7, 1944

Luftwaffe reconnaissance missions revealed an allied massive landing operation in Northern France.

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As you can see France is poorly garrisoned because of the needs of troops for stopping the soviets in the East. So it would be rather easy for the allies to achieve their primary objectives. Furthermore, airborne operations were launched in several french cities seizing them. German Flak caused severe losses to american paratroop unit in Reims that was reduced to 4 steps.

In the East, in Poland the soviets are in full offensive mode: they destroyed 2 Panzerkorps, 1 inf corps and 1 garrison thus expanding the bridgehead south of Warsaw. It won´t be long till Warsaw itself is attacked so may be the best thing to do will be to retreat to Warta-Oder river. In Romania, Red Army also started an offensive that probably will result in the surrender of Hungary in a few turns.

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In Italy, the allies started an attack to german positions around Florence destroying Model HQ inf corps and clearing the way to Venice.

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We will see how this goes since if the situation turns very complicated for the germans in the very following turns, peace conversations with the allies are not discarded. The allies won´t be able to get Hamburg and Berlin before july 1944 (this is easy to see) but if the germans won´t be able to resist before december 1944 it will not make difference at all.

[gerones]

Turn 86. April 27, 1944. Germany surrenders!

As OKH was fearing, a huge allied landing fleet appears in Holland and Northern Germany coasts. Although in last allied turn, it seemed that the allies were going to make all the way from Normandy to the Rhine, Mikko surely have thought to go directly to Germany and this way to achieve a possible premature surrender. And he has got it.

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The germans simply have no troops to face this new threat.

In the Eastern front the soviets also seem to be in a hurry: they overrun completely the german forces in Poland destroying another 2 Panzerkorps and pocketing numerous units in Warsaw-Lodz. Soviet armoured spearheads even reached Budapest that was heavily attacked. Numerous pockets also formed in Carpathian mountains and Timisoara was seized by the Red Army.

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Italy. Allies seized Florence where the germans were completely overrun. II Canadian Corps reached and crossed Po river.

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Some statistics now. Germany asks for peace with 9 inf corps, 50 garrison units, 2 mech units, 3 fighters, 2 tacs and 1 battleship. Allies armies are simply overwhelming: specialy the soviet air units.

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Germany war production stats:

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Thanks to all that have followed this AAR!

[PionUrpo]

Since the game has come to a conclusion and I haven't done an AAR of my own, Victor's allowed me to add some post-game yadda-yadda here.

First of all thanks to Victor for a great game. After last turn's results we agreed that Axis situation was such that there's no need to go on 'til end as the capitals would've fallen shortly. Very interesting to see opposing point of view.

As you say, things look extremely bleak for Axis. Looking back, I trace a lot of the trouble for Axis to what didn't happen in 1940/41: Paris didn't get taken until very late, meaning that Germany was prevented from really seizing the initiative and making the most of a period when the UK is usually weak and isolated. Second, Axis didn't achieve decisive results in Barbarossa 1941. Russian forces were bruised but unbroken and so were able to take the initiative away from Axis permanently as soon as the fair weather in '41 was over.

I've been impressed with how effectively you've managed to hold off the Allies, given the above. You kept Italy in the game until about the historical surrender date, and you've fought furiously and well to try to fend off the attacks of a very intimidating Red Army.

I'll agree with this. French campaign was good from my PoV as it took quite long and UK suffered only minor losses. Barbarossa was good in the amount of territory taken but Victor didn't have enough units to make a credible defense in south and I could take Eastern Ukraine back all the way to the Dnepr. Now that I can see just how few units he actually had down there, it's even more amazing! (An really aggressive Allied player might've done quite a bit better even but I'm more of a cautious type as is probably evident ) When '42 summer offensive began I could've happily withdrawn to Rostov had it been required to save the units. As it was, most of PPs of Eastern Ukraine was retained, allowing a sizable build up of the Red Army.

On the otherhand, he managed to hold of rather well in '43. With all the build up I was expecting to commence a steamroll to west after winter '42-'43 but instead the mostly garrison backed doubleline along the front froze any fast advance. Things turned to unitswapping which of course in the end helps Soviets, just a bit slower that way. The late '43 retreat went quite well in my favor though.

In Italy I think I played bit timidly being sucked to almost fully stacked Sicily to slug it out. However, I don't like to risk a landing up north as 1) TACs can really ruin the transports out of aircover (as can be noted here as well) 2) ARM/MECH reserve can be easily railed to wipe out the landing force which is out of aircover. In hindsight that decision wasn't very good as things could've been done faster but with so good situation in East, there really wasn't need to risk it all. (Ok, the late '43 landing up north was risky and turned bit embarassing as I couldn't drop an airborne to Florence (not enough efficiency) for 3 supply, ending up losing several units in a slugfest and getting stopped cold. )

Also, I think I was incredibly lucky with the research. UK dogfight level 5 (ie. 8 air attack) in Feb '42 IIRC, my new record, and Soviets achieved quite a pace on tech as well.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

I think the fall of Germany would have happened late 1944 so this should be considered a major Allied victory and not a strategic Allied victory. Then the victory must have been before July 1944.

With the latest changes for air techs I don't think getting dogfight tech 5 will happen as early as February 1942 anymore.

[gerones]

My late campaign in France was intended for avoiding losses. And I achieved this objective since I got my lowest losses ever for the french campaign!

[gerones]

I think the fall of Germany would have happened late 1944 so this should be considered a major Allied victory and not a strategic Allied victory. Then the victory must have been before July 1944.

That´s why I have conceded the game since the allies would have normally been in Berlin and Hamburg before december 1944 but it would have been very difficult for the allies to get both capitals after july 1944.

My intention was to continue the game unless the allies send a landing force to Holland-Northern Germany. If all the allied units would have landed in France instead, this would have allowed me to delay something the allies in Rhine river line, to build a double defensive line in Oder river against the soviets and other one in the Alps mountains in Italy. But as soon as I saw the allied amphibious units I decided to abandon the game because of the extreme weakness of Germany coasts in this sector.

This makes me wonder some question: it is out there some info about about Atlantic Wall fortresses in this sector of the german-dutch coast? It seems to me that the germans are rather weak against such a landing in Helgoland Bight.

[Batavian1]

Thanks very much for the AAR Leridano. It was very enjoyable to follow.