Not really Roger you'll get murdered on average if you try this in a game. It is far to narrow a perspective on one microcosm within a much bigger overall combat even, never mind within the much larger still whole battle. Which is what matters. I would be delighted to see anybody set up this way oppsote me as a Roman.However, the probability of being less lkely to lose and less likely to lose by two hits, makes the single base frontage the one you really want to choose to go with.
You have tied up 2 BGs of Spear vs 1 of legionaries...now what do you think the other legionaries will be doing.
If you have just a single spear BG against a single legionary one, it look tempting but by being in column you have guaranteed fighting the second round at a disadvatngae as well due to lack of dice. So even that is not so pretty if you look beyond just the impact phase and first CT and do the whole tree. i.e. 3 wide hits 1 wide, in melee it will be 3 wide vbs 2 wide for 50% more dice.
So for many reasons you will find I susepect that you are better with 2 BGs at the front and 1 behind if you are determined to use 2 BGs vs a single Roman.
Andy
Your lay explanation isn't far off The simplest way I could express it is this
- Option 1: 3 Bgs at front in column = 3 BGs at immediate risk with guaranteed -1 for 1hp3, small odds of a -2 CT test, and if any one routs it will force 2  others to test = big risk of taking 2 othewrs with any loser.  Outcome = lowest odds of losing badly in round 1, middle odds of surviving CTs in impact, worst odds of surviving combat in the melee round, worst outcome if it goes wrong, no chance to consolidate a win if you get lucky.  WORST OVERALL
 
 Option 2: 2 BGs at front in blocks with 1 BG behind = no longer certain of -1 for 1hp3 (better), but more chance of the -1 for 2hit difference (go some way to cancelling each other out) BUT a 100% guaranteed +1 for rear support and only 2 BGs at risk. If 1 BG routs it takes another 1 with it rather than 2. So if offered you a guranteed ??100 would you prefer this to [1 x 50% of losing ??100 and 2 x 50% chances of winning ??100]. This is sort of the analogy as you move the odds of getting the +s and -s for the CT around. Worse odds of losing the first round badly, middle odds of surviving the impact CTsm( a bit better than in 1), good odds of surviving melee round, decent chance to consolidate a win if you get lucky in impact. GOOD OVERALL.
 
 1BG and 1/4 BG behind (ie half sixew and offset to support 2 BGs) = as above, but the most efficeint use of points and the legionaries no longer have a free BGs to go off and do other things. Better chances all round of surviving asnd wraps up maximum legionaries for your flank attacks. VERY GOOD OVERALL.
 
 As above with General in front rank = higher chace of survivign first round which is what matters.....etc. AS above but decent chance of winning = BEST OVERALL

And now for the real killer blow....
Generals affect a full BG. If you deploy this way against me I WILL PUT A GENERAL IN THE FRONT RANK AS I GET HIS INFLUENCE TO HELP BEAT A FULL 3 ENEMY BGs....NEVER LOOK A GIFT HORSE IN THE MOUTH AS THEY SAY.
SO ANALYSE THE ODDS OF 3 SPEAR BGS AND A GENERAL AGAINST 1 or 2 LEGIONARY BLOCKs AND A GENERAL AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. YOU HAVE GIFTED ME A HUGE ADVANTAGE BY FORMING COLUMNS AS THE CARTHAGINIAN GENERALC AN ONLY AFFECT 2 DICE AND THE ROMAN ONE CAN UPGRADE ALL 6 DICE AND ALL 3 COMBATS!!
All of this is nto say beware of partial simulAtions in AOW - there is much happening int he whole tree of events. And please please try this column thing whenever you play me....
 )
)Also think about it this way - if you put 3 BGs in column and are hit by 1 BG of legionaries - if you win you get 2 APs for 1 legionary block, if they win they get 6APs on that frontage - not pretty in overall game terms which is what actually matters.
The simutio you really want is ODDS OF WINNING THE BATTLE
Si
 
					 
					





