Too much dice-roll not enough reality, a fatal flaw ??

ssouthrey · Post by **ssouthrey** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 10:06 am

A problem with the random number generator appears to be the most likely theory. One test I would like to try is making a unit's reaction value 100%. If it doesn't op fire for some reason, then we know there must be some other dynamic factored into the game that we're unaware of.

PirateJock_Wargamer · Post by **PirateJock_Wargamer** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 1:13 pm

I have games where my shooting has been hot - always feel sort of guilty as I don't seem to be able to miss - and also games where I have been sub-zero on hits. And also some games were it feels balanced.

Assuming all hit/penetration/kill calculations are in the BSF scripts ... has that been confirmed ? It looks like there are only 2 random elements involved in the process:

There is a random element [hitRoll = Rand(0,100)] for determining if your shot is successful where if hitRoll > Chance to Hit then Miss
There is a random element generation amount of damage from a shot - random number from the minimum - maximum damage range (APAttack[0] & APAttack[1] from squads.csv). And then I assume a kill is obtained if damage > target armour (modified)

As far as I can see the decision for opfire is not a random element (?) It's based on angle of attack. And whether an opfire event is successful is then governed by the Chance to Hit calculation etc.

Maybe as we don't see all of the opfire information it's difficult to see at what stage the opfire decision has stopped - e.g. your unit has reacted but then failed on the Chance to Hit part?

If the Rand is a true random number generator - is it as I don't know if it's working with a seed value - every fire event should be independant from the randomness aspect (there are other events in the calculations that are affected by what the units have done previously). But even if Rand was a pseudo generator would it really lead to a string of hits?

Has anybody else had a look through the scripts to see how firing/hits work? Do you think it's different to above?

Phil/Iain - would you be able to clarify what happens when figuring out if a shot hits and kills?

Post by **IainMcNeil** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 2:41 pm

The % chance you see is the excact chance to kill after all calculations. The chance of missing a 90% shot 2 times in a row is 1 in 100. The chance of killing 3 25% chances in a row is is about 1 in 64. These things will happen on a regular basis - thats how probablity works and is as intended. There is no way to get the right sort of interaction between tanks without these probabilities.

Opportunioy fire always happens if the unit has ammo and detects the target. Detection chances vary by unit but all units have 100% detection in the forward 90 degree arc. Detection reduces to the sides particularly for closed top tanks without turrets. It reduces further to the rear - so much so that many tanks ahave a 0% detection chance to the rear.

LOGAN5 · Post by **LOGAN5** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 4:22 pm

It seems the entire forum is now in agreement that these cold streaks happen... no way this is random.. I mean the odds that I am on a cold streak and the other side is on a hot streak? How can this possibly be, making frontal armor kills maybe 5% shots while you are missing 35+% the whole game. After so many times this happened you got to be a real idiot not to see the pattern, as soon as you start missing you can allready tell that you will miss all shots for the turn, if it is really 50% you would be wrong 50% of the time but you are not.

Post by **IainMcNeil** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 5:14 pm

I've played a LOT of games and have just not seen this happen. There is really no way for the randomness to be skewed like this - its just logically impossible to return better values for one side or another. Random numbers dont know which side they are for. In addition the random numbers dont know if a low value or high value is good so even if they did want to biass things they wouldn't know how!

When people have complained and then given the details of a situation there have been logical reasons for the results. I've never seen this and feel it is all down to perception. If someone has a specific example please let me know and we'll investigate. We are looking at ways to address the perception issue as people don't seem to be taking acount of the %'s.

Feel free to video capture using something like Fraps to show what happens in a game and we can watch it back.

LOGAN5 · Post by **LOGAN5** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 5:38 pm

on sept 8 and 9th there are 2 finished games Beta clash of armor, between me and shawnt63.. these are a perfect example.. I don't know if there is a way for you to watch the entire match replay and maybe you can see what all the fuss is about. I would record it for you but it only lets me play back the last turn

Roadkingbill · Post by **Roadkingbill** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 5:47 pm

I have seen a big change since the Tiger patch.The game has changed to the point I stopped playing, to frustrating.

PirateJock_Wargamer · Post by **PirateJock_Wargamer** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:39 pm

To be clear - I have had occasions where I don't seem to be able to miss and others where I can't hit a barn door but I have also had games where I hit as much as I miss. As there is a random element in the game I accept this ... that's the nature of randomness. I currently don't believe the hit/miss calculation is broken or skewed.

There may be improvements to made on the impact of the random element but that's another discussion

ssouthrey · Post by **ssouthrey** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 7:59 pm

Hi Iain. I love the game. Great job! I'm definitely going to pick up Field Of Glory as well.

On the topic at hand, you mentioned the following:

Opportunioy fire always happens if the unit has ammo and detects the target. Detection chances vary by unit but all units have 100% detection in the forward 90 degree arc.

First, when you mention ammo, does that mean shots remaining from your active turn? Secondly, you specify that 100% detection in the forward arc. Does that mean they always fire if an enemy moves into their forward arc? If so, without a doubt, that is not happening. I've had enemy tanks move directly up to an anti-tank gun on the forward arc without a single op fire.
I had one instance, in "Holding The Line" where I had 3 Shermans, 1 M10, 1 M18, and a 57mm ATG behind a building and hedgerow facing the entrance of a bridge. A Stug crossed the bridge and was in line of sight of all units. I also had a Bazooka squad adjacent to the bridge so the unit was detected. Not one unit op fired. The Stug fired at my M18 and destroyed it. It then blew up my M10. I have no problem with the fact that the Stug blew up my vehicles. I was just disappointed that not one of my units op fired.

Also, does the % to kill include the % to hit? I thought they were separate random checks. If it's 50% to hit and 50% to kill you would have a 25% to kill a unit with each shot. Just want to confirm this mechanic.

By the way, I want to reiterate how great the game is and I'm just saying this to improve an already great game!

Acererak · Post by **Acererak** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:01 pm

After completing the three campaigns and more than 50 MP games played, i don´t see anything broken either. Randomness is there, but trying to figure out a pattern out of it it´s probably heavily influenced by some unlucky personal experience, at least from my point of view. How many games you really need to play to figure out a pattern with all variables in this game taken into account? I am no math expert, but it seems to me that the number probably has a lot of digits.

I think all in all, everything behaves in a very rational way. There are quite a few variables (facing, moved, morale, skill of opponent) that really make me wonder how come is possible to figure out any pattern at all.

Of course i had games when i felt like some bored funny deity is playing with my destiny. But i also had a lot of days like that....

Acererak · Post by **Acererak** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:05 pm

Oh, and i wonder why are we having this discussion folowing the thread of someone who :

1. Has been quite rude to ALL users here

2. Seems not to be around anymore

Could please those interested in discussing this maybe open another thread?

Thanks

ssouthrey · Post by **ssouthrey** » Mon Sep 20, 2010 8:16 pm

Acererak wrote:Oh, and i wonder why are we having this discussion folowing the thread of someone who :

1. Has been quite rude to ALL users here

2. Seems not to be around anymore

Could please those interested in discussing this maybe open another thread?

Thanks

Good point. Starting a new thread.

Post by **IainMcNeil** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 6:39 am

We cant watch replays of games so you need to give specific examples where a turn played out wrong and we can look if you do not progress the game.

On opportunity fire, units with hold fire will not shoot. Also hidden units will only reveal their position if they have a decent chance of hurting the enemy. This is why your AT guns did not fire. There is no point revealing their position if they cant hurt the target.

Melnibone · Post by **Melnibone** » Tue Sep 21, 2010 7:42 am

iainmcneil wrote:On opportunity fire, units with hold fire will not shoot.

You might want to check this. I had expected it to work as you said. However, In a tournament battle yesterday I had 2 Shermans on Hold Fire - I did not want to take out the remaining enemy half track until I had got the last flag with other units - in the turn the enemy halftrack drove out in front of the Shermans - despite both having hold fire orders they both took op fire shots to my horror - fortunately they missed

.