Proposal for a more realistic combat mechanism

[76mm]

The Elite legionaries get to re-roll any initial 1s and 2s in their impact attack. This means that on average 1/3 of their misses (2/3 of misses * 50% chance to hit on re-rolls) should become additional hits. Once it gets to melee, the elite legionaries are Skilled swordsmen (Sword+ POA) so are at a +POA versus the average Legionaries in addition to the advantage of re-rolls. I think these are the factors you overlooked.

This is most helpful--did you get all of this info from in-game help?

It certainly sounds like elite legions do receive a significant advantage in combat, which makes sense to me (although based on the test results posted above, maybe overdone!!). I still think that they are too difficult to break.

[pcaravel]

The Elite legionaries get to re-roll any initial 1s and 2s in their impact attack. This means that on average 1/3 of their misses (2/3 of misses * 50% chance to hit on re-rolls) should become additional hits. Once it gets to melee, the elite legionaries are Skilled swordsmen (Sword+ POA) so are at a +POA versus the average Legionaries in addition to the advantage of re-rolls. I think these are the factors you overlooked.

Chris

Hi Chris.
I haven't overlooked the re-rolls of the Elites, I mention them in the first post.
Also, the hypothesis on my example was that the two battlegroups where identical in everything except the quality of the troops (elites vs average), in order to guarantee that there are no POAs.
Besides, SRW1962's 1st round is an impact so this 20% of the chances for the Averages can't be explained with difference in melee attributes.

I'll try to find some spare time in the weekend and do some testing to find out how this 20% is calculated.

[rbodleyscott]

The Elite legionaries get to re-roll any initial 1s and 2s in their impact attack. This means that on average 1/3 of their misses (2/3 of misses * 50% chance to hit on re-rolls) should become additional hits. Once it gets to melee, the elite legionaries are Skilled swordsmen (Sword+ POA) so are at a +POA versus the average Legionaries in addition to the advantage of re-rolls. I think these are the factors you overlooked.

Not only that, but in the event that the Average legionaries get lucky and actually win a combat, the Elite legions are far less likely to drop Cohesion.

If the Elite legions do drop Cohesion, they are far more likely than the Average legions to recover it again.

And if they rout, they are far more likely to rally.

All in all, they are pretty damned good. (There are probably several reasons why the point cost differential should be greater than in FOGTT).

[SRW1962]

The Elite legionaries get to re-roll any initial 1s and 2s in their impact attack. This means that on average 1/3 of their misses (2/3 of misses * 50% chance to hit on re-rolls) should become additional hits. Once it gets to melee, the elite legionaries are Skilled swordsmen (Sword+ POA) so are at a +POA versus the average Legionaries in addition to the advantage of re-rolls. I think these are the factors you overlooked.

Chris

Hi Chris.
I haven't overlooked the re-rolls of the Elites, I mention them in the first post.
Also, the hypothesis on my example was that the two battlegroups where identical in everything except the quality of the troops (elites vs average), in order to guarantee that there are no POAs.
Besides, SRW1962's 1st round is an impact so this 20% of the chances for the Averages can't be explained with difference in melee attributes.

I'll try to find some spare time in the weekend and do some testing to find out how this 20% is calculated.

Although I see what you are getting at with regards to troop quality by using the Tenth Legion etc. as an example you do have to take into account the difference in attributes such as swordsman or skilled swordsman, also the impact phase is critical as without it you simply don't get a melee anyway, its a bit like saying that all beers are the same if you take out everything except the water and yeast. Elite legions are skilled swordsmen as it is one of their attributes, you simply don't get one without the other in the rules and by having these attributes it is what makes the difference between the units even though they may have very similar roles and titles.

[batesmotel]

The Elite legionaries get to re-roll any initial 1s and 2s in their impact attack. This means that on average 1/3 of their misses (2/3 of misses * 50% chance to hit on re-rolls) should become additional hits. Once it gets to melee, the elite legionaries are Skilled swordsmen (Sword+ POA) so are at a +POA versus the average Legionaries in addition to the advantage of re-rolls. I think these are the factors you overlooked.

Chris

Hi Chris.
I haven't overlooked the re-rolls of the Elites, I mention them in the first post.
Also, the hypothesis on my example was that the two battlegroups where identical in everything except the quality of the troops (elites vs average), in order to guarantee that there are no POAs.
Besides, SRW1962's 1st round is an impact so this 20% of the chances for the Averages can't be explained with difference in melee attributes.

I'll try to find some spare time in the weekend and do some testing to find out how this 20% is calculated.

The % chances shown are the chance for that BG to give more hits than it receives (to win) or to get more hits than it gave (to lose). To calculate these you need to figure out the probability distribution for each BG to get 0,1,2,3 or 4 hits. The chance of winning is the sum of the chances of the BG to get that number of hits time the (sum of the chances that the opposing BG gets fewer hits). This should be straightforward to calculate but cumbersome if you're not doing it on a computer. I do trust that FoG PC has this programmed correctly but haven't actually checked it out. The winning % shown only indicates the chance of causing the losing BG to take a cohesion test, not the chance that the opposing group will actually drop in cohesion.

Chris

[pcaravel]

My mistake was that I hadn't comprehended that the result of close combat can be a draw!
Which happens when both score the same number of hits.
How stupid of me!

So I calculated accurately the chance of the Elites to win to 56% and then thought that the chance of the Averages was the remaining percentage. Which is apparently WRONG.

The right (approximate) percentages are:
Elites win: 56%
Draw: 24%
Averages win: 20%
Now, these percentages are quite realistic.

Thank you Chris and SRW1962 for your posts that made me clear my confusion about the combat mechanism.

I just hope the this thread has helped other people too to understand the subtleties of the game mechanics and wasn't a waste of time.

[petergarnett]

Not a waste of time at all - good to see everyone's way of thinking.