Seitzkrieg Case Yellow Launch Date Probabilities

[rkr1958]

I know, I know!!! The more aggressive players bristle at a Seitzkrieg Case Yellow (i.e., invasion of Belgium and the beginning of the attack on France). For us less aggressive players or for those who face such players I thought I'd post this analysis I've done.

The table below gives the launch dates and probabilities for Case Yellow assuming that this operation is launched on the first clear weather turn of 1940. The dates across the top in the table are the current date and assume no clear weather turn for that date and prior. The probabilities in blue are the probabilities that Case Yellow will happen on a given date and the red probabilities are the cumulative probabilities that Case Yellow will happen by that date or earlier.

[schwerpunkt]

I've played one game as the axis where the weather didnt change until March and France was a tough slog. Nowadays, I either DOW Belgium in Jan, or earlier by executing the "Holland DOW on turn 2 strategy".
WHat are others doing nowadays?

[supermax]

I am having difficulties to understand why most players dont invade France as soon as possible in the fall of 1939.

To me, its so obvious that it is better!

[rkr1958]

I just thought I'd post an excerpt from an email exchange between Max and me (related to this topic) from our on-going PBEM game. Not only is he gearing up for a massive blow against Russia, he just finished the destruction of most the RN Atlantic fleet (i.e., 2 BBs, CV and DD). The surviving RN Atlantic fleet elements have fled to bases "unknown".

I think its worth it to wait for the spring to blitz France, after all... After my first try i see that its a lot better this way!

I find your changing opinion on this to be a testament to the re-playability of GS. The fact that this and other strategies (e.g., invading Yugoslavia and Greece) are discussed by experienced players without a clear census on what's "best" is really exciting for me as one of the developers of GS.