The Spanish Gambit AAR (The War is Over.)

[rkr1958]

Turn 71. July 2, 1943.

Jim lined up four garrison invasion transports in the Black Sea to try to outflank my defenses in southern Russia. It's interesting that all four transports are garrisons, which implies that this was a feint to draw a reaction and weaken me. I had to react and reacted only enough to block all possible invasion hexes. I continued to pour more units into the Odessa sector. I also shored up my Russia defenses as much as possible.

In west North Africa I hit the US tank corps with a bomber and an allied BB off the coast of Spain with a sub. Jim's naval presence is moderately strong there but his ground presence is not.

In the middle east I moved to consolidate my position there and finish off Syria. What's interesting is that Mosul is defended by a Russia corps. So there aren't many western allied ground troops in west North Africa or in the Middle East. This can only mean one thing and that is Jim is planning for an invasion of France (or Spain) before poor weather sets in.

I am transitioning units from the middle east to either west North Africa or Russia as indicated in the last two pictures. The forces slated for west North Africa will also be available for the defense of France if needed.

[gerones]

It seems that you really are going to reinforce remarkably your positions in Russia. To tell you the truth, with the new GS victory conditions it is a good strategy because you can hold on there in Russia for long and in case you have to withdraw you have all those row of fortifications in the german borders that can´t be easily go through by the soviets. This (in my opinion excessive number of fortifications in the east) and the weather conditions make to the allies very difficult to arrive in time in 1945 to achieve a victory. May be this victory conditions current system (based in controlling major powers capitals) should be changed for a victory points system. What do you think about this?

[Peter Stauffenberg]

Let's see how the game ends before making any conclusions. When the Axis line in the east crumbles then you will be amazed how fast the Russians end up in Berlin. The fortresses will not be manned by high quality corps units because those units are needed at the front line. Usually the forts are manned when the Germans are so pushed that the forts will become the new front line soon. Those units are often weak garrisons or corps units with low quality.

If I see an Axis player manning the forts with armor and corps units then I try to bypass the forts instead. E. g. like trying to get across the Rhine near Arnhem. The Russians can push via Prague and get past the forts that way. Often the Germans have to abandon the forts almost like the French abandon the Maginot to get the units to Berlin before they're cut off.

So the forts aren't actually that formidable. If the Germans could have build forts in Russia behind the Dnepr then it would have been different. But when the Germans need the Siegfried line and the Ostwall then they're about to lose the game anyway. The Allies will then have complete air supremacy and can bombard the forts with 2 airstrikes per turn if they decide to push through the forts. When you get the efficiency of the fort units down to red then you can attack the hex with almost normal combat results.

Our victory conditions are partly victory point based. The Axis player gets one point per major power primary capital held at the game end in May 1945. The number of victory cities means the victory level from minor victory to ultimate victory. To gauge the Allied victory level we can't count victory cities because the Allies will have control of ALL cities. So the only way to measure the victory level is how soon the Allies conquered both Italy and Germany. The earlier you win the better the victory level.

[schwerpunkt]

Ronnie,
Just wondering what your strategy is for withdrawing in Russia given how strong Jim is starting to look? In a few games I have played as the germans in a similar position to you, I pulled back to the "weather line" (Russian border) before winter to avoid the Severe Winter effects and to get the German army close to the shorter Koenigsberg-Odessa line. It paid off quite well in my games as my gradual loss in troops was offset by manning the shorter front which prevented the russian player from actually making it to eastern germany.


Neil

PS: If you manage to time the pull back just before Severe Winter hits you manage to get a turn where the Russian player cannot attack you as he has to catch up to you whilst suffering winter movement penalties.

[rkr1958]

Turn 72. July 22, 1943.

My priority has shifted to shoring up and defending the Russia front. Jim destroyed three corps this past turn, which were replaced immediately by two new German and one new Italian corps deployed last turn. Also, I deployed two new German corps and paid for three new ones this turn.

Jim withdrew one of the four "invasion" Russia transports that he deployed last turn along the axis controlled coast in the Black Sea and redeployed the other three to new invasion coastal hexes. In response, the Luftwaffe hit two of these three transports and sunk one and badly damage the other reducing it to 3-steps. These transports are out of Russia fighter cover so the Luftwaffe was able to hit them with impunity.

As you can see in the first two screenshots I am significantly bolstering my Russia defenses; especially in the south around and in Odessa. The third sceenshot shows the progress of two German tactical bombers, one fighter and one tank corps of their transfer to the Russia front.

Mop up operations in the middle east shown in the fourth screenshot are nearly complete. An German infantry corps landed on Cyprus and captured the only city and port there. Also, axis forces in the middle east captured Beirut. These two operations have closed all available ports to the allies in the eastern Med. Also shown in this screenshot are a German tank and mechanized corps slated for transfer to the Russia front. However; before I transport these I want to capture the UK controlled hex north of Beirut to prevent allies spies from "spotting" these two transfers. The axis middle east defense force (MEDF), will consist of 4 Italian infantry corps, 2 German infantry corps, 1 German fighter and 1 Italian fighter. One of the four Italian infantry corps is in the southern part of the Sinai Peninsula finished off a trapped and badly depleted (2-step) US infantry corps. This Italian corps seems to be taking its time finishing it off, knocking off a 1-step every other turn. But with no supply it will be finished off. There's no hurry.

A German wolfpack consisting of three u-boat flotillas have taken up station off the northeast coast of Canada and having been wreaking havoc on the Murmansk convoys. They have either sunk or badly depleted the last four convoys that have tried to sail through there.

The Luftwaffe hit the badly depleted corps in Algeria outside of Oran and reduced it to 3-steps. Even though it flew without fighter air cover the depleted US fighter unit got the worse of the exchange losing 2-steps to the bombers 1-step. I would like to repair the Romanian fighter based in Cartatena, Spain but PP priorities went to building new German infantry corps. So the fighter was put on sentry and the German Stukas flew with fighter escort. Heading west to bolster the western defense forces and the axis defense of Algeria is a German fighter and Italian tactical bomber.

German oil = 217 and manpower = 51% at the end of the turn are stating to become a concern but are not yet a problem. Italian manpower = 79% is still very good. I will conserve some oil by railing bombers to rebase them instead of flying them. However; the axis have no rail capacity in the middle east and North Africa so the only way to redeploy them to and from there is by air.

Another area of concern is where are the western allies? I see a moderately sized naval force off the coast of Spain and Morocco; but I see very few air and ground units in both Algeria and the middle east.

[rkr1958]

Ronnie,
Just wondering what your strategy is for withdrawing in Russia given how strong Jim is starting to look? In a few games I have played as the germans in a similar position to you, I pulled back to the "weather line" (Russian border) before winter to avoid the Severe Winter effects and to get the German army close to the shorter Koenigsberg-Odessa line. It paid off quite well in my games as my gradual loss in troops was offset by manning the shorter front which prevented the russian player from actually making it to eastern germany.


Neil

PS: If you manage to time the pull back just before Severe Winter hits you manage to get a turn where the Russian player cannot attack you as he has to catch up to you whilst suffering winter movement penalties.

Orders from the highest levels to the OKW for the Russian front are to stand and defend on all present positions. No retreats allowed. Only shifting of units to maintain as best as possible a double defense line are permitted. And, under no conditions are Odessa and Riga to fall into enemy hands.

Seriously though, July 1943 is too early to begin a general pull back from Russia. Hopefully I won't do something "crazy" and allow units to needlessly get destroyed but I have to hold on in Russia for at least a year more to have a chance to win the game. I'd like to hold until just before the winter of 1944 and then pull back. However; I feel that this objective is highly optimistic; but I will do my best.

As I assess my current situation my assessment is that the odds are I will lose this game. I don't know if they are 80%, 90% or even higher that I'll lose; but even if they're 90% that means I have a 10% chance to win. For simplicity sake say that I have a 1 out of 6 chance of winning (i.e., 16.667%). That's like rolling a "5" on a six sided dice. And, who hasn't rolled a "5" on a 1-1 odds attack in Avalon Hill's 3rd Reich. I certainly have rolled my share. Worse though is having a 2-1 odds attack and rolling a "4" followed by your opponent rolling a "6" and losing your entire attack force! That's a 1 out of 36 chance, which is a 2.778% chance of happening. I've even had too many of these type attack outcomes! So even given a 3% chance of winning that's still a chance.

[rkr1958]

Turn 73. August 11, 1943.

The Russians continued their push in the south and destroyed two more infantry corps and depleted a third down to 1-step. Also, they got an attack against a Stuka airbase and knocked two steps off that unit. The OKW was ordered to launch an immediate counterattack and which they did. The objectives were to recapture the three hexes circled in the first screencap, with double priority placed on the two northern hexes. The results of the counteroffensive (second screencap) was 80% successful. Also, Luftwaffe fighters inflicted serious losses on Russia fighters during this operation. Reinforcements continue to make their way to Russia.

In North Atlantic the wolfpack interdicting the Murmansk convoy was force to retreat (i.e., flee). The western allies sent a strong destroyer force composed of 5 destroyer squadrons and 250 areas to sweep the Atlantic off the northwest coast of Canada for u-boats and to probably escorts the Murmansk convoys. Fleeing was the better part of valor.

In Palestine it looks like the western allies have enlisted the aid of the Russians to recapture that area. What did Churchill and Roosevelt had to give to Stalin for this deal? They've made a pact with the devil!

If Jim had waited a few turns before launching this operation I would have pulled out the German tank and mechanized corps for Russia. As the situation has changed these two corps along with the planned two German infantry, 3 Italian infantry, German fighter and Italian fighter will form the axis army group responsible for defense of the middle east and the Suez Canal. The one and only objective for this army group is to hold the Suez Canal.

Oran in Algeria fell. Unescorted Stuka bombers hit the UK tank corps and knocked off 1 step. The badly depleted US tank corps moved out of range. The Italian tactical bomber and German fighter unit arrived in the theater to support defensive operation there. The UK Malta fighter snipped at the German fighter last turn knocking off 4-steps from the German fighter to only a loss of 2-steps for the Malta fighter.

Two partisans popped up in Spain and I had to sent a German and Italian infantry corps to deal with them.

I paid for three more German and one Italian corps. German manpower dropped below 50% to 49% and their end of turn oil stockpile was 177.

[rkr1958]

Turn 74. August 31, 1943.

The axis counterattacked again in Russia but with very limited objectives of capturing one hex and destroying the retreating 1-step Russian infantry corps. Both were achieved.

In the North Atlantic Jim found my fleeing subs and hit them hard again. This time the all scattered in different directions. One found the Murmansk convoy and attacked it. This provide some level of protection against accidental discovery.

In west North Africa it looks like the western allies stopped their advance and pulled back. I wonder what's up with that?

In the middle east UK and Russian forces are advancing.

[rkr1958]

Turn 75. September 20, 1943.

OUCH!!!! The Russians hit me hard in both the south and the north. In the south they achieved a breakthrough and destroyed Guardian's tank corp and knocked him out for 13 turns. While stunned the axis mounted a counterattack and destroyed the Russian spearhead of two armor and one mechanized corps and recaptured those hexes. In the north the axis rushed troops to the Riga area to set up defenses there.

Reichenau, the commander of the Spanish front, has been reassigned to command Army Group South in Russia and will arrive there in 6-turns.

In the middle east UK and Russia forces continued their advance and destroyed an Italian infantry corps.

Axis oil at the end of the turn was 152. Oil is starting to become a concern.

[rkr1958]

Turn 76. October 10, 1943.

The Spanish Gambit the way that I've implemented it is quickly becoming, "The Axis Lose Gambit!" More carnage in Russia this turn. The axis counterattacked attacked destroying two more Russia infantry corps and taking back three hexes in southern Russia. In the north the Russians continue to exploit their breakthrough and I deploy units to defend Riga and the riverline.

The western allies have a number of transports lined up off the west coast of France. I suspect this is one of Jim's feints but I had to respond lest the allies get ashore. Hopefully, central Europe will see mud in November. To better get a look at what Jim is up to I sent a couple of German u-boat on a spying mission. They found the found the moderately large allied fleet off the northwest coast of Spain.

In the middle east a multi-national allied force is pushing into to Syria. I've started my pull back to defend the Suez Canal.

Jim is pushing me hard in several areas forcing me to spend oil and PPs and I'm still losing ground. Axis oil was down to 133 at the end of the turn and German manpower was 42%.

[gerones]

It´s october 1943, soon will be bad weather and the russians haven´t made significant progress. Even less progress they will do in mud and winter weather. The axis will now use bad weather to reinforce even more its possitions in Russia, so I think it´s very difficult for the allies to achieve a victory with a conservative axis tactic.

[Peter Stauffenberg]

It´s october 1943, soon will be bad weather and the russians haven´t made significant progress. Even less progress they will do in mud and winter weather. The axis will now use bad weather to reinforce even more its possitions in Russia, so I think it´s very difficult for the allies to achieve a victory with a conservative axis tactic.

One problem for the Axis is the low oil reserve and manpower level. The German line in Russia is quite fragile so I won't count out a victory for the Allies yet.

[rkr1958]

It´s october 1943, soon will be bad weather and the russians haven´t made significant progress. Even less progress they will do in mud and winter weather. The axis will now use bad weather to reinforce even more its possitions in Russia, so I think it´s very difficult for the allies to achieve a victory with a conservative axis tactic.

One problem for the Axis is the low oil reserve and manpower level. The German line in Russia is quite fragile so I won't count out a victory for the Allies yet.

If I make it into 1945 I'm going to count that as a morale victory!!! The only way for Jim to lose is for him to back off and based on the email from the turn I just received from him, but haven't had a chance to open and play, I don't think he's going to do that. I need to get lucky and get mud in Russia for a couple of turns in order to rebuild my defenses and rest my forces before the severe winter effects hit. My defenses in Russia are crumbling and I'm having to deal with Jim pressing me in the middle east, west North Africa and now in France. I will remain strong on all fronts but my experience has taught me is that when the axis defenses in the east start to crumble is that they crumble fast. The allies have the initiative on all fronts and are inflicting losses that I'm unable to replace. Also, they're forcing me to burn more oil than I like.

While I'd like to win my goal now is to make it to 1945.

[schwerpunkt]

Ronnie,
I'm not sure whether you have already considered it but I'd start being very cautious in flying TACs now due to your oil situation. Also, I tend to put my FTRs in the east on sentry mode during winter due to the weakened combat performance (PP costs escalate unacceptably in my view) which helps to conserve oil. My ground forces just have to stick it out (its cheaper repairing them than FTRs but I'm sure that you have already thought this equation through) and the FTRs cant stop the (dangerous) escorted TACs getting through anyway.

Neil

[rkr1958]

Turn 77. October 30, 1943.

Axis forces in south Russia pulled back to the Bug River and the Pripyat Marshes. North of the marshes they have formed a defensive line along the Pripyat and Dnieper rivers. All fighters on the Russia front (as was advised) were place on sentry. Axis oil at the end of the turn was a horrifying 91 points. Redeploying the tactical bombers burned up a lot of oil.

Jim successfully landed south of Bordeaux by destroying a 5-step air unit. That was a mistake on my part putting it them. This allowed him to advance and fly in a strategic bomber to occupy and defend the original landing hex. He also moved a fighter unit in central France to a hex vacated by an out of supplied partisan.

I consider the use of air units in such a way as an approximation of airborne units. In my experience this approximation seems to work well. Air units used as an approximation for airborne have fairly good defensive capability (e.g., Bastonge) but no offensive punch. They support invasions by holding hexes that an invading unit is advancing from (e.g., Normandy D-day) or hexes vacated by partisans (e.g., combined airborne/French Resistance operation). So while CEaW doesn't explicitly have airborne troops there is currently a way to approximate those units in such a way that seems to work remarkable well at the corps level.

I digress -

The mulit-national allied force in the middle east continues their push and the western allies continue their advance is Algeria along the mountain passes.

[rkr1958]

Turn 78. November 19, 1943.

The Russians breakthrough in the center and advance to the Pripyat Marshes. Hopefully the marshes and bad weather will give me some time to organize my center defenses. In the north the Russians capture Tallinn.

In France the western allies expanded their bridgehead slightly. Axis air hit a reinforcing infantry transport and reduced it to 5-steps. The allies don't have a city in France and the axis will stand and hold to prevent them from capturing one.

In the middle east the axis continue their redeployment (i.e., retreat) back to the Suez Canal.

[joerock22]

Unless your oil is really bad I would try to take out some of those weak Russian air units. I think Jim is assuming you're low on oil, and he's being a little reckless because of it. You need to take advantage, especially since the arrival of winter should help limit your oil expenses.

[rkr1958]

Turn 79. December 9, 1943.

The Russians continue their advance in central Russia and push into the Pripyat Marshes. The good news is the terrain makes for slow progress and there aren't any cities close. My plan is to pinch off the bugle. I really don't have the armor and the forces north of the bugle to carry this off but as Joe pointed out a number of second line units in the bugle are air units. I'll throw everything I can at it. This will in all probability be my Krusk.

Not much action in western Europe. I'm trying to contain the allied invasion as best as possible there.

The strategic pull back to the Suez Canal continues.

[rkr1958]

Turn 80. December 29, 1943.

Targeted counterattacks against the bugle in Russia continue with minimum success. Also, severe winter hit at the end of my turn, which means the Russians will hit me hard next turn.

In the west, the I hit the two tactical bombers hard that Jim put in place to hold ground in France and Spain. I got to within 1-step of being able to put the armor corps there out of supply.

In the middle east, the retreating axis have almost reached their defensive positions west of the canal.

[schwerpunkt]

Ronnie,
I cant offer any further advice in the east as you could be within a few turns of collapse in the south if Jim gets lucky, but now that Beirut has fallen, have a think about what sort of naval invasions he might be able to launch, especially with those russian units, as you cant afford any further distractions....

Neil