CEaW-GS Unpredictable Weather -or- Darn that Weather!

rkr1958 · Post by **rkr1958** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:03 am

Unpredictable weather just threw a wrinkle in my conquest of Poland. Even though I've been involved in the development and testing of our new weather model I didn't fully appreciate it's potential to throw wrinkles into ones plans until now. I've just started a new game as the Axis against Jim. My first turn in Poland went about average or better. On my second turn I decided to go for a lower cost conquest, clear out the units around Warsaw and take it next turn (October 11, 1939). The first picture below shows my position at the end of September 21, 1939. Since I decided to take my time both tactical bombers were available on turn two to attack Denmark and it fell under those attacks combined with the German BB and two infantry corps. To support my October 11 finishing of Poland I moved one of my fighters in place to attack Warsaw along with the one tactical bomber in range. I got Jim's turn back and open the game for my October 11 turn and guess what, I got a nasty surprise. The weather was mud in Poland! I pulled up the forecast chart from our draft manual and sure enough there's a 25% probability for mud in central Europe in October. The only units really in place to reach and attack Warsaw in mud (which reduces movement) are armor and mechanized, whose attack effectiveness is greatly reduced during bad weather. Also, fighters become almost useless and all these units in attack take more losses than they do in fair weather. So, no attack on Warsaw. I hope the weather gods next turn don't frown on me again!

schwerpunkt · Post by **schwerpunkt** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 11:44 am

yes, the new weather causes the German player quite a few concerns.

I'm currently playing a game against Paul (now in 1942) but after completing my September 1941 turn I realised that my units were badly out of position if the 10% chance of Severe Winter occured. Fortunately, the 75% chance of clear weather occurred but I was very concerned that the 10% chance could have significantly ruined my long term chances. Just wondering whether the 10% Severe Winter chance for October should be removed? Winter or Mud is very annoying but at least not game breaking....

Thoughts?

Peter Stauffenberg · Post by **Peter Stauffenberg** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 1:55 pm

Isn't this the purpose of having variable weather that you can't predict what kind of weather you will have next turn?

The probability for severe weather in October exists in the vanilla game as well.

Knowing that the severe winter can happen before Christmas means the Axis player should not push his units every turn until it happens, but instead dig in behind rivers or in good defensive terrain and try to rest to regain efficiency. If you're too greedy in 1941 then you will experience the same as the real Germans, i. e. a major Russian counter offensive that will destroy many German units.

rkr1958 · Post by **rkr1958** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:14 pm

I sent a question to our group asking what they though of the weather percentages and the consensus is that these values in their opinions are good. So it looks like we're going to leave them where they are. Also, as Borger pointed out above there is a chance for severe winter effects in October in the vanilla game too.

I think the following response I got from Jim sums things up well,

Jim wrote:I like it, and not just because your plans were derailed, Ronnie

In almost every good war game I have ever played, going back to the paper map and cardboard counter days, most of Europe was an unpredictable place in October.

This is not meant to sound harsh---but simply put, if players want a guarantee, then make sure you get your major objectives before October rolls around.

I'm sure that last paragraph wasn't meant for me

: However; Jim did end his response with this, ...

Jim wrote:So Ronnie, suck it up my friend---your panzers are bogged down in mud, right up to their fascist axles!

Can't you just feel the love!

I do like that quote though ... maybe we should include a section in our manual entitled, "Best Game Quotes" (or something like that). I'll have to ask Alec what he thinks about that.

Kidding aside, Jim was away from playing the game for the last couple of months; though he still contributed his expertise to mod development. It's good to have him back playing. The time away from playing seems to have him loaded and ready for bear. Unfortunately, it appears that I'm the bear!

joerock22 · Post by **joerock22** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:42 pm

I also like the variable weather system. I love to complain about Mother Nature in my AARs

, but it is fun not knowing. Sometimes I find myself crossing my fingers before a turn and rooting for one type of weather.

"Come on, clear! Come on, cle--DOH!"

rkr1958 · Post by **rkr1958** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:53 pm

joerock22 wrote:I also like the variable weather system. I love to complain about Mother Nature in my AARs , but it is fun not knowing. Sometimes I find myself crossing my fingers before a turn and rooting for one type of weather.

"Come on, clear! Come on, cle--DOH!"

I agree. In a game against Paul as the Axis I got unexpected clearing in November 1940 that allowed me to quickly finish off Holland than continuing to slug it out in the mud. But best of all, I got a clear turn in February 1941 that allowed me to take out Yugoslavia ahead of scheduled (i.e., March) and allowed me to focus solely on Greece and North Africa in March.

But as I learned in my game with Jim what the weather gods give they can also take away.

rkr1958 · Post by **rkr1958** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 6:25 pm

Order is restored in the universe. I'll know to be more "aggressive" next time in September 21. Even if I don't take our Warsaw; knocking the defenders down to 3 or 4 steps will allow for the captured of Warsaw next turn regardless of weather.

ncali · Post by **ncali** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 11:02 pm

The weather looks to be a great addition and reminds me of some old favorites like the boardgame "Russian Campaign." But I also noticed what appear to be 5 starting panzers for the Germans! Wow, that seems like a lot.

Peter Stauffenberg · Post by **Peter Stauffenberg** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 11:05 pm

ncali wrote:The weather looks to be a great addition and reminds me of some old favorites like the boardgame "Russian Campaign." But I also noticed what appear to be 5 starting panzers for the Germans! Wow, that seems like a lot.

There are only 3 panzers. The other 2 are mech units. So there aren't any more panzer and mech units than in the vanilla game.

ncali · Post by **ncali** » Thu Nov 26, 2009 3:59 am

Thanks - the new graphics make them look a little more intimidating!

Peter Stauffenberg · Post by **Peter Stauffenberg** » Thu Nov 26, 2009 1:50 pm

ncali wrote:Thanks - the new graphics make them look a little more intimidating!

Yes, and the mech graphics change with increased tech. There are 4 different mech images per country. Mech units get a few more tech advances than motorised infantry did so they perform better. The price is increased from 45 to 50 because of that.

So mech units can be a good alternative to armor if you want offensive firepower, but can't afford to burn all the oil high tech armor units burn. Mech units work very well against enemy infantry, but not so well against enemy armor (unless the armor is quite depleted). Mech units have the best firepower against cities and capitals so buying more mech is a good idea.

Russia start the game without armor units, but with a lot of mech units. This simulates the Russian organization prior to the reorganization that occured late 1941 when Russian armor were formed around tank brigades and you got Tank corps units. This change also works well to prevent the Russian armor blob strategy. The Russian player can build tank units from the start, but won't have 12+ tank units at the start of Barbarossa. They might have 8 tank units if they ignore the infantry completely, but the Germans can deal with that if the Russians decide to use the tank units in offensive operations.

rkr1958 · Post by **rkr1958** » Sat Dec 05, 2009 5:11 pm

What have I done to offend the CEaW - GS weather gods?! Two different games and the weather continues to go against me.

The first game is as the Axis against Jim as the Allies (same game as above). I've decided to mix things up a bit and try some different things as the Axis player. One thing is an invasion of Spain. The turn date is October 5, 1940 and the weather in Central Europe is mud! I knew it could happen (25% chance) and prepared for it by splitting my invasion force into a northern land push and a southern amphibious invasion force. The southern force is in the Med weather zone. Anyway, it's mud which slowed my advance of the northern force.

The second is a game as the Allies against Borger. Not only did he get fair weather in October he got it in November of 1939! This allowed him to use his strategic bomber against Paris two turns in a row, easily take out Holland and bomb the defenders in Lorraine knocking off 5-steps. For the first air attacks I didn't have the French fighter on sentry and needlessly lost 3 air steps, which I can't afford to repair because I need to build French infantry corps. The strategic bomber attack cost me 2 or 3 PPs and the repair of the infantry corps in Lorraine cost me 11 PPs. That's 15 PPs gone! None of this would have been possible without fair weather in October (75% chance) and November (25% chance). The little things that Borger does just drive me crazy! These small things can add up and a make a big difference.

Why do the CEaW-GS weather gods hate me?!

rkr1958 · Post by **rkr1958** » Sun Dec 06, 2009 11:31 pm

The wrath of the GS weather gods toward me continues ... I'll let the email Borger sent to me describe the carnage.

Borger's email wrote:You surely must have alienated the weather gods. Fair weather in the west in February. That meant I launched Case Yellow early and captured Belgium and penetrated deep into France near the coast. Probably because you hadn't fully prepared a double defense line there. The key was to penetrate the initial river so I don't have to attack across river next turn.

Since I get contact with your units so soon it means you can't recover before I start pounding the French corps and armor units.

The reason I say you've alienated the weather gods is because the weather for the next turn is decided at the end of the Allied turn and stored in the game. So it's not me being lucky. The bad die roll happened in your last turn. I have normal weather against Joe so I'm not particularly lucky.

You better pray for mud next turn or Paris can fall very early (April maybe).

Does anyone know what offerings please the GS weather gods?

Though this weather has recently gone against me I like it. It ensures that no two games will be the same. Also, if forces you to factor in weather unpredictability into your plans. Something that I'm painfully learning.

pk867 · Post by **pk867** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 12:32 am

Hi Ronnie,
The same thing happened to me with the game with Boyd. He got clear in February and struck while the iron was hot. The weather went to mud for a couple of turns, but France surrendered in May 1940. I prepared for Sealion which he tried on in a previous beta-test game, but I guess he changed his mind.
Right now we are in 1942 and the battle rages in North Africa with the British forces advancing on to Tobruk with the Russians trying a southern thrust against the Axis invaders.

Later,

Paul

rkr1958 · Post by **rkr1958** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 3:59 am

Guess what!? Borger got fair weather again on the February 28, 1940 turn. So, let's recap just in this game. With a 25% probability of happening per turn and each turn independent he got fair weather on November 20, 1939, February 8, 1940 and February 28, 1940. Assuming my pseudo random number generator is broken that has a 1.6% chance of happening. This string of fair weather has given Borger a 2 turn jump on the conquest of France. I can't say I haven't had luck this game ... unfortunately it's been bad luck.

GS weather gods why do you hate me so?!

By the way, don't you just love what this new weather system does to the game!

trulster · Post by **trulster** » Mon Dec 07, 2009 1:23 pm

Variable weather is a super addition to the game! But, maybe each turn should not be totally independent? Meaning, if you get harsh winter it should increase the probability for continued winter the next turn (in winter months). Something like +10% or 15% chance perhaps.