What are the odds?

Dyeeles · Post by **Dyeeles** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:28 am

In a game at the weekend a bunch of light foot ran away from superior lance cavalry. The cavalry caught them in the rear with two bases then lost the combat 1-0 and lost a base.

Rather embarrasing for the Cavalry player.

SirGarnet · Post by **SirGarnet** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:32 am

It reminds me that a historical report of that kind can lead to an army's cavalry being stigmatized as "Poor" for wargames rules forevermore.

rogerg · Post by **rogerg** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:33 am

Rolling four dice and getting 1's and 2's only would be 1 in 81
Rolling two dice and getting a single 5 or 6 would be 4 in 9
That would be about 1 in 180 to start with, before considering superiority and tests. A bit unusual really.

Scrumpy · Post by **Scrumpy** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 11:56 am

As reported on here before, one notable US player did the same, lost by 2, and his lancers routed. You know the game hates you somedays.

babyshark · Post by **babyshark** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 5:22 pm

Scrumpy wrote:As reported on here before, one notable US player did the same, lost by 2, and his lancers routed. You know the game hates you somedays.

Marc

Scrumpy · Post by **Scrumpy** » Tue Nov 10, 2009 6:22 pm

I keep on trying to spare your blushes by refusing to name you !

deadtorius · Post by **deadtorius** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 12:58 am

Sometimes regardless of the odds the dice just hate you and no matter what, you are on the path to great losses. Still that really hurts. Had my Companions miss a unit of lights once, no hits and my opponent had the biggest grin on his face as he rolled their die. As luck would have it he missed too. He needed 5's, 1 die since they were fighting 2 units at the time and it was a flank attack by the companions. Lucky break for me or I would still be hearing about it.

hammy · Post by **hammy** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 10:49 am

Once chance in 3690 that the cavalry will lose a base

The chance of no hits from the cavalry at ++ is actually a lot lower than 1/81 as they reroll 1s. It is actually 1 in 410 by my calculations.

Not a bad achievement but I have regularly seen flank chargers lose the impact embarassing as it is.

I imagine that the end result was still a dead BG of light foot anyway.

Dyeeles · Post by **Dyeeles** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 11:25 am

Yes the lightd disapeared quite rapidly, especially when some MF joined in.

deadtorius · Post by **deadtorius** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 6:41 pm

Ahh but the embarrassment of needing a unit of foot to come to your aid to finally ahihalate those lucky lights.. glad it wasn't my cav unit.

will05 · Post by **will05** » Wed Nov 11, 2009 8:50 pm

hammy wrote:Once chance in 3690 that the cavalry will lose a base

Maybe you should play the national lottery!

philqw78 · Post by **philqw78** » Thu Nov 12, 2009 7:07 am

will05 wrote:
hammy wrote:Once chance in 3690 that the cavalry will lose a base

Maybe you should play the national lottery!

And lose a pound every week!

SirGarnet · Post by **SirGarnet** » Thu Nov 12, 2009 8:09 am

philqw78 wrote:And lose a pound every week!

If only I could lose a pound a week - in 4 months I'd be in great shape! I assume it's the exercise and foregoing other vices that does the trick?

Scrumpy · Post by **Scrumpy** » Thu Nov 12, 2009 10:43 am

I think we would all wish todraw a swift veil over any vices you might have !

will05 · Post by **will05** » Fri Nov 13, 2009 9:57 am

I regularly lose 2 pounds, but I see this as a donation to charity, there by allowing me to escape those who come to the door or ambush me on the street by saying that I make regular donations elsewhere........This does I find control vices by two pounds but strangely I still don't have those to die for looks!