timmy1 wrote:Cassius why do you think that the Pike are both cheaper and up in melee? To get the full depth benefit, the Pike will be more costly per base of frontage. To be evens at Impact, the Pike have to be 4 deep vs impact foot. Seleucid Prot, Superior Drilled Pike are 32 points per frontage, vs 20 for the Armoured, Average Drilled 2 deep Romans. If the Roman are LRR, the Armoured Superior Drilled will be 28 points per base of frontage. Also the Romans can survive fighting not steady - the PIKE really cannot so if they lose the impact they are toast. I think that the Romans will murder Pike.
If you use Armored Average Drilled Romans, you will lose the reroll advantage that everybody thinks makes the Romans the equal of a pike phalanx.
Armored Superior Drilled Hastati will be 14 points per base, or 28 per frontage for 2 deep, and in Melee they will be + due to armor (they don't get the plus for ssw if the pike are steady.) So they Pike will have +1 net POA. They will be even-up in the impact phase.
That + to the pike gives the pike a 50% per dice, vs. a 33.33% for the Romans. In the case of a miss, the Romans have a 25% chance of a reroll, with a 33.33% chance of a hit on the reroll. So the total chance of a roman hit, per dice is a 38.88% chance (With superior troops. Average is a straight 33.33%. I wonder if the extra 4 points is worth an additional 4% chance to hit.)
So the Pike frontage is 32 points, vs. 28 points, and that 4 point difference buys them a 11.12% greater chance to hit with each dice. If we are talking about a pike line 4 base x 4 bases, and two legionary lines hitting them we are talking about 112 points roman, vs. 128 points pike.
Additionally, if the pike are in column (4 units side by side) as I have seen them stacked up, Each Roman frontage splits its hits across the Pike units: each frontage is a separate unit, needing its own HB2 to test for the first 3 ranks...each Roman frontage has to get 2 hits to even consider causing a test. (Am I right about this?) whereas each Pike frontage only has to score 1 hit to cause the Romans to test. (If the legion is deployed in a 2x2 next to a 2x2...if the roman is 1x4 in front of a 1x4 it's worse for the Roman.)
So each pike frontage for 4 extra points, still has an equal chance to hit in impact, and a 12% greater chance to hit in Melee. AND, the only way the Roman can make the Pike deployed 4x4 test after combat, is for both roman bases in the frontage to hit...a 15.11% chance. On the other hand the Pike only has to get 2 hits out of 4 to make the 2x2 roman test, or 2 out of 8 for the 1x4 roman to test. In the first case a (it's been a while since college stats class...I might have this wrong...) I think that 2 hits out of 4 chances on a d6 comes out to a 69% chance.
So the Roman has a 15% chance each turn of making the Pikes test for status, and the Romans have a 69% chance of making the Romans test. (per unit. Since the Romans have 4 chances vs. the Pikes 2 chances it gets a little more complex, but that's as far as my math can take me at the moment.)
So what I am saying, is that Hastati vs. Pikes, straight up, equals a great probability for a loss vs. Pikemen.
It will take 6 rounds of combat before the pike reach a 50% certainty of taking a cohesion test, whereas the Romans will reach the 50% mark with each round. Given that there is a 41.67% chance of failure with each test, the Romans reach a 50% certainty of being disordered by the second round of Melee combat. The Pike don't reach a 50% certainty of going disordered until round 10!
So my point is not that pikes are overpowered...it's only that Pike should not be hit head-on by MRR or LRR Romans. There has to be another tactic for taking them on. This is why I was thinking about using Auxillery Offensive Spearmen in the middle (2 ranks deep) to tie up the Pikes, and use the Legionaires to try to manuever around the flanks.
The Roman Auxilliary Spearmen are/can be, I think, average, drilled, offensive spearmen. That should give them a + in impact, making them equal, and a + for off spear, and another + for better armor vs. the Pikes in Melee, making them even. Even with 4 ranks of pikemen.
I don't have my books at work, so I might be off on those, but I think the auxilliary spear are not all that expensive either, and if they can equal the Pikes, it could tip the balance.
Just a thought. I have not played much, as I am still painting my army, but I am hoping that will give me a way to fight pikes.