It's over - Jan 1946:
Not sure if I forgot to choose the option to allow the game to continue past 1945 or if there's a bug, but I cannot continue as the option to end turn is greyed out.
Pity, I feel I could have held out quite a while longer and with the tanks I had could possibly have broken out and started another blitzkrieg! I ended up with Moscow still under Axis control, due to the dumb AI so it should go down as some kind of victory, even if it is a pyrrhic one! Romania was still fighting and had two units defending its capital, the oil fields were still mine and I was getting 76 PP a turn, enough to fully reinforce all units defending Germany with a bit to spare.
It was a fun campaign even against the AI and I hope people enjoy reading about it.
Lessons learned:
1. By staying at home until 1942 we solved the problems of oil and manpower shortages and the tech advantage we held over the Allies was a very handy bonus until later in the game when the enemy was able to match me in some areas.
* I would recommend attacking Russia in early 1942 rather than waiting as they will attack in May and so you lose some advantage by waiting too long. Suggest attacking Russia as soon as the weather improves in '42, probably April. This will still allow plenty of oil for a long campaign (I had around 1,600 oil when the game ended and over 1,200 manpower) and give the attack bonuses early on.
* I also feel you can probably go about a more traditional war early on as you won't lose much manpower and use much oil due to the small size of the army. This would go along the lines of Poland, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, France before deciding how aggressive to be with regards to Sealion and Norway, Spain etc. This would still allow plenty of time to stockpile oil and manpower with the benefit of extra production for some years to come.
2. Concentrating on research was a good idea generally.
* I'd emphasise other techs over General as the priority, not sure what exactly yet, probably Armour as the main priority.
Mistakes:
1. Model and Manstein's drive into Russia was heroic but I split their forces and tried to go for Moscow/Omsk as well as trying to cut off the main Russia forces. I should have concentrated on one objective or the other, probably Omsk would have been the easiest as the Russians had so few units other than their main concentration around Konigsberg.
2. Submarines - I tried to get naval superiority with subs alone, but the mistake was to build units during the war too slowly and I could never quite sink enough Allied surface units to make it work. I built around 12 subs all told over the course of 1940-1943 - would have been better building them all earlier in the war and then a smaller number would have had a bigger impact. This would also have saved production points that could have been used for more ground forces later on and would have helpd reduce the risk of D Day.
There's more, will think later