MikeMarchant wrote: ↑Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:04 pm
Looking at historical sources is fraught with difficulties. Often they are highly biased, and sometimes outright political propaganda. Just because a reporter is present at a battle does not mean he is writing a faithful account. Also, very often, the writer wasn't present, but had heard reports from those who were (still no guarantee of accuracy or faithfulness) , or more likely is writing long after the event and basing his account on the accounts of others he has read. Where there are accounts from a variety of sources, and sometimes sources from opposite sides of the field, you might wonder if they're describing the same battle.
What I want out of FoG is an historically accurate game. Unfortunately it doesn’t really deliver that. What it does deliver is the most historically accurate game available. It pains me that commanding an army in the way it would be commanded historically is likely to lead to failure, and it pains me that LF (just as in FoG 1) are more like elite squads of special forces than LF were historically. It pains me that the ridiculous occurs with great regularity.
The difficulty with any attempt to model things in the real world is that things in the real world are immensely complicated. it shouldn't be a surprise that warfare is far from the simplest real world thing. Modelling it in a game is close to impossible. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't try.
If you want to be able to have outlandish things happen, because outlandish things did happen in the real world, that's fine, but you need to ensure they happen with approximately the same regularity as in the real world. That can only be achieved if your RNG system is capable of generating numbers using some form of normal distribution. You can't achieve it with a roll of 2D6 (for example) since the range of values is limited to 2-12. And 1 in 36 is hardly a rare occurrence and not a sensible foundation for a 1 in a thousand event.
If the RNG generation used a normal distribution then you could allow for the most preposterous, most bizarre events occurring, while keeping the probability of them proportionately low.
What is the probability of three superior armoured lancers fragmenting on impact when charging the rear of average protected offensive spear on flat open terrain when those spear are engaged in melee to their front? I don't know, but I dare say it's pretty small. I have twice seen this occur in FoG 2.
What is the probability of a unit with a 58% chance of winning a melee (as reported by the game) scoring a draw, both on his turn and his opponents turn 9 times (that’s 18 melees) in a row? Actually, I could work that out, but I can't be bothered at the moment.
I could list many examples, but there's no benefit to doing that. We have all seen them, and we do all see them too often. This is not a complaint about there being luck in the game; it's a complaint about the ridiculous occurring with too great a regularity. It's a complaint about the game not being as historically accurate as I want it to be - not, I emphasise, as it should be, but as I want it to be. There have been times I have come close to quitting the game. There have been times when I have spent a great deal of time selecting troops for my army, deploying it, manoeuvring it, and then feeling I might as well have just saved myself all the time and effort and flipped a coin to decide the victor.
I have won battles I had no right to win and I have, less often, lost battles I had no right to win. I'd prefer the victory to go to the better play on the day more often than it does at the moment.
I am saying all this, I suppose like everyone else involved in this discussion, because I care about the game. If I didn't, I wouldn't be commenting and I wouldn't be playing. I want the game to be better, like I imagine everyone else does. And I completely accept that my idea of better may be completely different to someone else's.
If this all sounds too negative, I am sorry about that, so let me finish with something positive:
One of the reasons (quite an important one, actually) that I haven’t quit the game, is the community who plays it. I have never, with all the games I have played, and in all the other contexts I’ve been involved in online groups, come across a nicer, more welcoming, more sporting group of people. When the chips are down and the game is going very badly, and even when the Gods of the dice have been greatly displeased with me, it has always been a pleasure to meet with and chat with, my opponents.
Perhaps the greatest accomplishment of the game is the community that it has built.
Best Wishes
Mike