Slitherine

Could somebody familiar with cohesion test probabilities provide me with percentage chances of the following:

1) steady elephants drop to disrupted from missile fire

2) disrupted elephants double-drop from neighboring unit routing

3) disrupted Thureophoroi double-drop from elephants routing

Thanks!

pompeytheflatulent wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:44 pm Could somebody familiar with cohesion test probabilities provide me with percentage chances of the following:

1) steady elephants drop to disrupted from missile fire

2) disrupted elephants double-drop from neighboring unit routing

3) disrupted Thureophoroi double-drop from elephants routing

Thanks!

You're opponent sounds pretty unlucky

SnuggleBunnies wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:09 pm https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/ ... =735499412

Thanks. What causes double drops? Rolling snake-eyes on the 2d6?

I wrote a little function to show dice outputs (assuming I remembered the morale system correctly)

https://anydice.com/program/1a852

Cunningcairn wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:04 pm You're opponent sounds pretty unlucky

On consequentive 2d6 rolls, he scored less than 7 (~41%), followed by a 2 (1-in-36), then another 2 (1-in-36). The chance of that happening is 0.03% according to my calculations. My opponent definitely sounds like someone who routinely forgets the pre-battle sacrifices.

Gaznak wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:28 pm I wrote a little function to show dice outputs (assuming I remembered the morale system correctly)

https://anydice.com/program/1a852

Thanks, I temporarily busted out Battletech probability tables. But yours actually account for re-rolls so are a lot more useful.

pompeytheflatulent wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:31 pm

Cunningcairn wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:04 pm You're opponent sounds pretty unlucky

On consequentive 2d6 rolls, he scored less than 7 (~41%), followed by a 2 (1-in-36), then another 2 (1-in-36). The chance of that happening is 0.03% according to my calculations. My opponent definitely sounds like someone who routinely forgets the pre-battle sacrifices.

Well he probably can't find anything to sacrifice as stocks are low with everyone panic buying at the moment

Assuming its working as intended apparently elite troops, while more likely to pass their cohesion tests than superior troops, are also more slightly more likely to roll snake eyes just as a raw percentage.

Gaznak wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:47 pm Assuming its working as intended apparently elite troops, while more likely to pass their cohesion tests than superior troops, are also more slightly more likely to roll snake eyes just as a raw percentage.

Re-rolling 2s into 1s?

pompeytheflatulent wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:49 pm

Gaznak wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:47 pm Assuming its working as intended apparently elite troops, while more likely to pass their cohesion tests than superior troops, are also more slightly more likely to roll snake eyes just as a raw percentage.

Re-rolling 2s into 1s?

Yes there is probably a rule that rerolls can't be lower than the inital roll. I''ll have to fiddle with the code.

What about this?

A massed archer unit fragments from steady when I move it back one square. It then breaks on impact when charged next turn. So it virtually has no losses. Muggins here thinks, my C-in-C can save that unit as he is otherwise unoccupied so I transfer my C-in-C to the routed unit straight away. So it now has 5 turns to pass a cohesion test to get back to fragmented. But does it f*#@!

Can anyone tell me the odds please?

Cohesion tests to rally from routed would be rolled at -3 penalty. So need to roll a 9+ on 2d6. About a 28% chance to rally each turn.

72% chance to NOT rally each turn, x5 turns, about a 19% chance your general slinks off the battlefield with the archers.

pompeytheflatulent wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 6:53 pm Cohesion tests to rally from routed would be rolled at -3 penalty. So need to roll a 9+ on 2d6. About a 28% chance to rally each turn.

72% chance to NOT rally each turn, x5 turns, about a 19% chance your general slinks off the battlefield with the archers.

I forgot about this thread. Thanks, so I wasn't completely deranged in thinking my general should have rallied those archers, particularly as I put him with the unit on the same turn that it routed.

stockwellpete wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:41 pm I forgot about this thread. Thanks, so I wasn't completely deranged in thinking my general should have rallied those archers, particularly as I put him with the unit on the same turn that it routed.

I don't know about the deranged part, it WAS slightly worse odds than having your general play Russian roulette.