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What's the probability of general down when melee is won?
Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:34 am
by melm
My steady skoutati attached general routed the fragmented irregular and my general is dead simutaneously. What's the probability of this case, greater than 10% or less than 1%, or between?
Re: What's the probability of general down when melee is won?
Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:22 am
by Athos1660
melm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:34 am
My steady skoutati attached general routed the fragmented irregular and my general is dead simutaneously. What's the probability of this case, greater than 10% or less than 1%, or between?
I guess IRL your general would have the same probability of dying while the enemy start fleeing as he would at any other time of the melee, as the two events are independent. As long as he fights...
Re: What's the probability of general down when melee is won?
Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:26 am
by rbodleyscott
melm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:34 am
My steady skoutati attached general routed the fragmented irregular and my general is dead simutaneously. What's the probability of this case, greater than 10% or less than 1%, or between?
1.11111% after any close combat round that the general's unit wins or draws.
3.33333% after any close combat round that the general's unit loses.
Note that this test is made for each unit that his unit is fighting, so if it is fighting multiple enemy units the overall chances per turn will be higher.
Re: What's the probability of general down when melee is won?
Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:58 am
by melm
rbodleyscott wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:26 am
melm wrote: ↑Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:34 am
My steady skoutati attached general routed the fragmented irregular and my general is dead simutaneously. What's the probability of this case, greater than 10% or less than 1%, or between?
1.11111% after any close combat round that the general's unit wins or draws.
3.33333% after any close combat round that the general's unit loses.
Note that this test is made for each unit that his unit is fighting, so if it is fighting multiple enemy units the overall chances per turn will be higher.
Then my number just run into this 1.11% region. Well, I shall not regret moving my general to this unit.
Re: What's the probability of general down when melee is won?
Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 10:53 pm
by nyczar
I liked it more when a general falling was just a "chance". While I generally like knowing the real probabilities of various events, in this case, ignorance is bliss as I must now beat my PC every time I have a cohesion bomb due to such a slim probability.