Slitherine

In a mp match, i attacked roman hastati principes with my thureo while they were engaged with 1-2 my pike battalions (open ground,no nearby units )

win was 73% draw was 17% and lose was 0 %

they lost 50 men, lost, and got disrupted and fallen back

heres screenshot after it happened, because it happened too fast: https://steamuserimages-a.akamaihd.net/ ... DC4F47595/




before anyone say that its 1 in a million case, its not

i experienced losing thureos when they had 1% , 2% and 3% chances to lose

almost double digit cases , 7-8 minimum , and i dont use them often


theres something wrong with calculation

they perform well against roman infantry in rough terrain, i find them useful, but this just ruins them

I doubt theres anything wrong with any specific unit. I have played armies that are predominantly Thureo's ( against Romans too) and they do pretty well, in open terrain too.

TheGrayMouser wrote:I doubt theres anything wrong with any specific unit. I have played armies that are predominantly Thureo's ( against Romans too) and they do pretty well, in open terrain too.

0% to lose and they lose

+ 6-7 times i experienced them losing when they had 1%

never happened with any other unit


worst case scenario for me was superior warband vs roman veterans at 8% which is reasonable

either theres something wrong with thureos or whole calculation in general is "Fragmented' to use FOg 2 terms

The manual points out that those percentages are not exact, but interesting to what extent they are "not exact"?

Is it possible your reporting of percentages is not accurate? A spear unit charging Impact Foot that is steady and not under negative terrain penalties, is never a favorite to win, ever. You may be looking at the wrong part of the prediction table

Also the combat predictor window does not enumerate all the possibilities but instead does the combat 1000 times or something like that and spit out the results. That means it is not always accurate.

MikeC_81 wrote:Is it possible your reporting of percentages is not accurate? A spear unit charging Impact Foot that is steady and not under negative terrain penalties, is never a favorite to win, ever. You may be looking at the wrong part of the prediction table

Also the combat predictor window does not enumerate all the possibilities but instead does the combat 1000 times or something like that and spit out the results. That means it is not always accurate.

i am not sure how the calculations works , but it said to me 0% and that was most recent event because of which i decided to make the thread (and as i mentioned them losing at 1% , 1% , 2% , 1% , 3% , 1% ,1% , 2% in the past week or 2 )

i dont really see the point in having that much inaccurate interface,its very misleading. i feel like chances were double digit or even more (@ times they had 1-2%) than 20% to lose

considering how many times it happened , i am not sure if this is WAD , even with the argument that percentages are inaccrurate
i can understand 1% , but 0% i cant

The percentages are calculated by running the actual combat calculation 1000 times. This give a pretty good estimate but is not 100% accurate. Running it 10000 times would be more accurate but would start to degrade game performance.

In a mp match, i attacked roman hastati principes with my thureo while they were engaged with 1-2 my pike battalions (open ground,no nearby units )

win was 73% draw was 17% and lose was 0 %

As MikeC says, the figures you quote are impossible for the Impact phase in that situation unless it was a flank charge. I think perhaps you were looking at the Melee chances rather than the Impact chances.

Did your spear unit charge or was it already in melee? If you charged, then you are looking at the wrong part if the window.

The window displays Impact first then displays the subsequent melee round if nothing changes, i highly suspect you looked at the wrong numbers

MikeC_81 wrote:Did your spear unit charge or was it already in melee? If you charged, then you are looking at the wrong part if the window.

The window displays Impact first then displays the subsequent melee round if nothing changes, i highly suspect you looked at the wrong numbers

then thats it, impact changed melee outcome i see

lapdog666 wrote:

MikeC_81 wrote:Did your spear unit charge or was it already in melee? If you charged, then you are looking at the wrong part if the window.

The window displays Impact first then displays the subsequent melee round if nothing changes, i highly suspect you looked at the wrong numbers

it was the Line* bellow , thats what i know for sure. every time

The line below is the wrong line to look at for Impact chances.

rbodleyscott wrote:

lapdog666 wrote:

MikeC_81 wrote:Did your spear unit charge or was it already in melee? If you charged, then you are looking at the wrong part if the window.

The window displays Impact first then displays the subsequent melee round if nothing changes, i highly suspect you looked at the wrong numbers

it was the Line* bellow , thats what i know for sure. every time

The line below is the wrong line to look at for Impact chances.

i just edited my replay, yes it seems thats the explanation then. impact changes melee

rbodleyscott wrote:The percentages are calculated by running the actual combat calculation 1000 times. This give a pretty good estimate but is not 100% accurate. Running it 10000 times would be more accurate but would start to degrade game performance.

There really is no reason to do it like this to be honest. There is no reason why a we can't get the exact number every time. I mean it is just a formula that you plug the variables in with a random number generator in there is it not?

MikeC_81 wrote:

rbodleyscott wrote:The percentages are calculated by running the actual combat calculation 1000 times. This give a pretty good estimate but is not 100% accurate. Running it 10000 times would be more accurate but would start to degrade game performance.

There really is no reason to do it like this to be honest. There is no reason why a we can't get the exact number every time. I mean it is just a formula that you plug the variables in with a random number generator in there is it not?

It is an extremely complicated formula. Calculating the win/draw/lose chances from it would be even more complicated. By far the easiest way to estimate the chances is to do the calculation then run the random part 1000 times. (It does not run the whole calculation 1000 times).

lapdog666 wrote:i just edited my replay, yes it seems thats the explanation then. impact changes melee

Yes, if you disrupt in the impact, it will certainly alter the melee chances.

I think you still may be misunderstanding something, because there is no melee, because your unit fell back after the Impact combat.

The Impact chances are the chances that apply to the combat in the turn a unit charges. The melee chances only apply to the next round of combat, which occurs in the following turn, not immediately.

The melee chances are reported in the tooltip because it is information you need to know to assess the likelihood of winning the combat over several turns. They do not apply in the turn that you charge.

rbodleyscott wrote:I think you still may be misunderstanding something, because there is no melee, because your unit fell back after the Impact combat.

The Impact chances are the chances that apply to the combat in the turn a unit charges. The melee chances only apply to the next round of combat, which occurs in the following turn, not immediately.

ah i see , i understand completely now

Yea, this is a common misunderstanding it seems, I didn't know about that either until I read the rules really carefully.