Slitherine

Not sure if this is a bug, it's probably been reported before anyway but I just noticed for sure that the "most likely result" bolding (and maybe the hit probability display calculation itself?) sometimes gives different result with the exact same speculative combat move. In this case I had an elite infantry unit and a regular US infantry unit moving onto a panzer unit. gives a different result maybe about 20% of the time (different most likely result bolded) when I tested multiple speculative moves targeting the same unit in the same way (not going via a different route). Not sure if there are only 2 different results or more.

Or is there something about the calculation that I'm missing here?

Since the results are random, you can get a different prediction each time (much as the actual outcome is likely to differ). It’s based on a number of trials, so it shouldn’t vary a lot (and should be a relatively accurate probability distribution).

Oh neat, I really like that there's this extra level of uncertainty/suspense and its not just a cleanly cut parroting of odds

Yeah, the idea was that an actual commander would have a reasonable idea of the odds. But nothing is certain in war.