Slitherine

Can anyone offer advice on the 39 Blitz? The Allies get overwhelmed when the Axis takes the low countries on turn 2 and also Poland, Denmark. Then, even in bad weather the Axis grinds to Paris by Jan/Feb and has London in the Spring. You don't dare commit the BEF for fear of Sea Lion but it is all so quick it doesn't matter anyway. Even bad weather doesn't seem to slow down the Axis. Makes for a very dull game waiting til Spring 42 while the Axis runs amok throughout Africa and the Brits suffer from a -40 morale drop.

I'd suggest that you look at some of the AAR's for further details on this.

The 1939 Blitz of the Low Countries and France certainly can create a challenge for the Allies, but it's also a risk for Axis. Unexpectedly bad weather in those first critical turns can create huge headaches for the Germans. Costs for the Germans tend to be higher in the Blitz (someone on this forum did a graph of this based on a fair number of games, comparing standard 'sitzkrieg' vs. Blitz, and it showed that losses for the Blitz tended to be significantly higher). A good Allied player should really be able to make the German pay in Poland, as the Blitz often means a 3-turn conquest there, and you can make losses pretty steep.

An early Blitz doesn't automatically indicate that Axis will pull off a Sea Lion, but the Allied player certainly must be on his guard. The biggest mistake is to overcommit to saving France, thus leaving the UK vulnerable. France is doomed anyway, so I'd be very cautious indeed about BEF forces--always have a plan to withdraw them when the time comes.

If the German really is determined and capable, it's probably impossible to stop Sea Lion, but you can make it so difficult, so slow and costly, that it ends up being a losing proposition. In my current game vs. SuperMax (see the AAR) even though he conquered the UK and most of Europe, the Allies still have a fighting chance to pull off a win. The key is to not let the 'boring' part where the Axis runs amok get you down. This is part of the natural cycle of the game. The Axis is *supposed* to be dominant from 1939-1942--otherwise they'd get completely overrun when the tide turns in '43.

Unfortunately the AAR's using the 2.1 blitz skip over the early steps so as not to give away their strategy. So many things could go wrong with this strategy but I've never seen an example of it going south for the Axis - which is somewhat suspicious. IMHO those who rely on the Blitz and a very confined timetable don't leave room for bad results. I think we'd see more failed examples in a real time game.

elazraq wrote:Unfortunately the AAR's using the 2.1 blitz skip over the early steps so as not to give away their strategy. So many things could go wrong with this strategy but I've never seen an example of it going south for the Axis - which is somewhat suspicious. IMHO those who rely on the Blitz and a very confined timetable don't leave room for bad results. I think we'd see more failed examples in a real time game.

define fail? France is going to fall, the question is when and at what cost?

elazraq wrote:Can anyone offer advice on the 39 Blitz? The Allies get overwhelmed when the Axis takes the low countries on turn 2 and also Poland, Denmark. Then, even in bad weather the Axis grinds to Paris by Jan/Feb and has London in the Spring. You don't dare commit the BEF for fear of Sea Lion but it is all so quick it doesn't matter anyway. Even bad weather doesn't seem to slow down the Axis. Makes for a very dull game waiting til Spring 42 while the Axis runs amok throughout Africa and the Brits suffer from a -40 morale drop.

39 Blitz is quite easy and quarantees success in ~80% (bad rolls for bombing Brussels may ruin the thing, same story if you invade in 1940). Here is the example:

Initial setup on turn 1:


Turn 2


Turn 3


Turn 4


Turn 6


You have 2 guaranteed fair weather turns in 1939 to attack France so you do not even loose the effeciency drop Allies get after fall of Belgium. It all cost you 15 PPs which gives excellent return from investment as you have Belgium and Holland 9 turns earlier (6 x 9 = 45). The biggest bonus is that France falls around turn 11 so Axis have all summer to do whatever they want + they have France 7 turns earlier (7 x 12 or so = 84 PPs more/earlier). I think this is worth much more than what you loose by having to fight in Poland even for couple more turns and having more losses there.

Ah. That's definitely worth it.

Samhain wrote:Even with the railing costs? To get so many units over there so quickly surely you'd have to rail so many of them that you'd go over the limit.

just quickly at 15 PP over it looks about right

Kragdob wrote: You have 2 guaranteed fair weather turns in 1939 to attack France so you do not even loose the effeciency drop Allies get after fall of Belgium.

It is only one guaranteed fair weather turn in 1939 for attacking France, as on the first turn you will not be able to attack instantly. So if you rail your units to the west on turn 1, you will have exactly one guaranteed fair weather turn to capture Brussels. Of course chances are good that the weather stays fair in both October turns, but its not guaranteed and if you got bad weather there, then the Axis can get into trouble. Of course if you get fair weather till November the Axis will have an edge over the Allies from the start.

zechi wrote:

Kragdob wrote: You have 2 guaranteed fair weather turns in 1939 to attack France so you do not even loose the effeciency drop Allies get after fall of Belgium.

It is only one guaranteed fair weather turn in 1939 for attacking France, as on the first turn you will not be able to attack instantly. So if you rail your units to the west on turn 1, you will have exactly one guaranteed fair weather turn to capture Brussels. Of course chances are good that the weather stays fair in both October turns, but its not guaranteed and if you got bad weather there, then the Axis can get into trouble. Of course if you get fair weather till November the Axis will have an edge over the Allies from the start.

tell me about it - ouch

zechi wrote:

Kragdob wrote: You have 2 guaranteed fair weather turns in 1939 to attack France so you do not even loose the effeciency drop Allies get after fall of Belgium.

It is only one guaranteed fair weather turn in 1939 for attacking France, as on the first turn you will not be able to attack instantly. So if you rail your units to the west on turn 1, you will have exactly one guaranteed fair weather turn to capture Brussels. Of course chances are good that the weather stays fair in both October turns, but its not guaranteed and if you got bad weather there, then the Axis can get into trouble. Of course if you get fair weather till November the Axis will have an edge over the Allies from the start.

Yeah, I was wrong. I thought turn 3 and 4 are guaranteed. Still the chances that turns 3, 4 and 5 are all mud is less than 5% and even if you get say 2 mud turns you should have captured Holland, Belgium and French border (which is +4 PP for Germans and -4 PP for France which is more than 25% of their income).

Of course there is good chances that you will need 2 turns for Holland and 3-4 for Poland. But from my perspective the benefits clearly outweighs the costs.

I can sympathize with ElAzraq. In a game against SuperDan he did the blitz on turn 2 but failed to take Brussels. Despite French intervention he took Poland on turn 2 and proceeded to mop up the French and BEF taking Paris by Feb. He did lose 2 Panzer Corps and a BB in the process but then launched Sea Lion and had most things under control by about June 1940. Then, he did an interesting trick - he refused to take London, forcing the convoys to continue to England where his u boat fleet demolished them. The only solution I could find to this ploy was to send the entire RN (saved much of it) to the Med and hit the RM hard - if he won't let any convoys through, why keep the fleet in the Atlantic? He would have easily taken Iraq and the oil fields except for driving the RM away and that he sent his Panzers against the 8th Army before the massive 30-40 point morale drop hit. The 8th Army with lots of air power (his air still tied up in England) demolished the Panzers and the Brits held the Suez. He has recently launched his 42 Barbarossa and we'll see how that goes. All his offensives must have burned a lot of oil and his tech seems low compared to the Russians as he probably sacrificed research for his rapid early advances.

Schnurri,

Game with you gave me thinking about this. I am currently playing two: in one my friend had fair up till November (5 fair turns in 1939) and now I am facing with Teutonic fury that is swarming onto British Isles.

In the second against Morris I had only one fair turn but the progress is still satisfactory.

For me this strategy is almost no-brainer now.

Good luck facing Sea Lion - hopefully your opponent doesn't leave London empty and force your transports to sail into a sub menace. Hopefully you saved most of the RN.

Schnurri wrote:Good luck facing Sea Lion - hopefully your opponent doesn't leave London empty and force your transports to sail into a sub menace. Hopefully you saved most of the RN.

I didn't. England is gone

Well, now it is up to the Russians. Hopefully your opponent skimped on research and when the Axis hit the Russians they will pay the price. Not much you can do with the Brits for now except keep the Med fleet alive (hide in the Persian gulf) and hopefully hold Iraq and the rest of NA.