Slitherine

The very first scenario of the campaign is rather interesting AIwise. The AI chooses to reinforce one of the 2 objectives Cracow or Warsaw. When it decides to reinforce Cracow the scenario becomes fairly easy because you can catch warsaw lightly guarded by only an ATG so you can achieve a DV even on the highest difficulty levels ( I usually play on the Guderian level). When the AI decides to build his new units around Warsaw it's an entirely different story. With the support of the Modlin fortress it becomes very difficult to take warsaw and coupled with some turns of bad weather you very much likely lose the opportunity of a DV.
Has anyone noticed if there are certain player actions that influence which objective the AI will choose to defend most or is it just random?
I myself tested some different tactics like not rushing adjacent to Cracow immediately but could not draw any safe conclusion.