Slitherine

I noticed that by refusing to occupy Warsaw, the Axis can prevent the USSR from occupying the Baltic States.

I was wondering about the implications of such a ploy, and though I admit they seem mostly negative for the Axis, maybe there's some way this would enhance Barbarossa (e.g. besides the PP loss and the trouble of having to kill the Polish units one-by-one, a Soviet DOW is still triggered if the Baltic States are invaded even if Warsaw is not occupied, and, a bunch of Red Army units that are normally crushed are deployed further away on Soviet territory).

Any thoughts?

According to the script then the Baltic states will become Soviet occupied on turn 15 regardless of the state of Poland. The only condition is that USSR is not at war or conquered. The same applies to Karelia and Bessarabia. So Germany can prevent the fall of these territories by DoW'ing Russia before they are annexed.