Slitherine

Posted: **Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:44 pm**

Had a game Sunday during which one of the players questioned why impact foot are ++ at impact whereas heavy lance-armed knights are only + against many foot types before other considerations. Other than pointing out the other considerations could influence the fight, and that knights only fight one rank deep for two dice, and the negatives if the foot lose to mounted and etc., he remianed unpersuaded.

So, hoping this is the proper forum to ask, what is the answer? Are impact foot intended to be better than knights? I don't run knights so it's all news to me.

Thanks in advance,

Deeter

Posted: **Mon Jan 04, 2010 8:53 pm**

It is one of those "it gets the desired results" answers.

If your friend wants to properly question the interactions he should be looking at the historical results they are trying to represent. If he then thinks the results are wrong he has a fair question, but to just say "I think so and so should have such and such a PoA" is not the right approach.

Additionally I suspect he need to look at the whole of the on table interactions and what the troops were for. Simplistically Impact Foot are anti-infantry specialists and will, therefore, under the rules be a net PoA up against most other combat type non-Impact Foot, pikemen being the exception; knights on the other hand are anti-mounted specialists and, except against other knights and nellies, will usually be a net PoA up against other mounted. So in fact against the troops they are supposed to be fighting both are a net PoA up.

Posted: **Mon Jan 04, 2010 9:23 pm**

Thanks for the reply. I will forward this to him.

Deeter

Posted: **Mon Jan 04, 2010 9:39 pm**

I know my opinion is a little bit more conflictual: there is much myth about knights charges against footmen. Usually foot troops fled even before getting into contact. But if they stood, they could win.

viewtopic.php?t=13748&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=20

Here we had a discussion about this topic too and my opinion is that even in the actual set of rules knights and cavalrymen are overrrated in the PoA they get against any foot. As Nik said, knights were more known for charging and beating other cavalry, which was usually the most decisive step of the battle.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:16 am**

Strategos69 wrote:I know my opinion is a little bit more conflictual: there is much myth about knights charges against footmen. Usually foot troops fled even before getting into contact. But if they stood, they could win.

As they more often do in FoG unless softened up first.

Strategos69 wrote: Here we had a discussion about this topic too and my opinion is that even in the actual set of rules knights and cavalrymen are overrrated in the PoA they get against any foot. As Nik said, knights were more known for charging and beating other cavalry, which was usually the most decisive step of the battle.

I personally, having used lots of lancer armies, have never seen them be good against foot with spears. Against foot with equivalent armour they are very poor. What normally happens is they hit, bounce, lose a base or/and are disrupted. If you can't get them out of the way or bolster they are dog meat. Unless you gain a local advantage in numbers and are lucky at impact.
Perhaps, for your benefit, we should introduce a CT for foot charged by mounted to see if they break at declaration, then if they did not make them a bit harder.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:49 am**

I think you need to look at three phases to see which is better: impact, melee and JAP. Assuming 'typical' troops and the enemy is foot.

Impact: the IF get better factors than the Kn in general.

Melee: the IF are usually protected with Sw. So they'll be evens at best against anything that can fight, and - against quite a lot. Kn tend to have better armour, so that will usually mean they are equal at worst, and + if they get to use their swords.

Jap. The IF are stuck there, often in a losing fight. The Kn break off steady foot, but continue to fight unsteady foot - which is usually whayt you'd want them to do.

So yes, IF are often fiercer than Kn in the impact phase but in the other phases you'd rather be the Kn.

Of course, against horses the IF is worse off at impact and you'd really want to be the knights.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 6:08 pm**

I made a simulation because I was in doubt too about knights vs spears. The result is knights break more than 1 time over 3 before they can breakoff (this means they break after 2 round of fight 36% of times). I really think this is not the behaviour of battles in Italian communal era (XIII - XIV centuries). I hope to make a campaign on that period, but if I will find the time to prepare and to play it, I will must prepare also some personal army lists because otherwise we cannot play historical.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 6:11 pm**

What were the exact parameters of your test.

Knights breaking when charging spears is not that common in my experience.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 6:19 pm**

Knight Armoured (or heavily armoured) Average Lancer Swordman
Vs
Heavy Foot Protected Average Defensive Spear

Here is the complete result:

Code: Select all

Knight vs Defensive Spear

4 vs 8
Direct win: Knight = 3,68%, Spear = 36,71%
After melee: Breakoff = 39,08%, Stand = 20,53%
Average casualties: Knight = 1,04, Spear = 0,50

6 vs 12
Direct win: Knight = 3,73%, Spear = 27,12%
After melee: Breakoff = 51,27%, Stand = 17,88%
Average casualties: Knight = 1,71, Spear = 0,87

My program repeated 1 million of times an impact and one melee. Direct win means opponent breaks within the round (this because knight breakoff if they are not routed at the end of turn if they haven't got an advantage)
Stand means foot are no more steady so melee goes on (but I don't simulate this situation, because I'm interested in other).
I wrote my program in Java, with NetBeans, a free developing system. If you want I can send you my code to verify.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 6:37 pm**

OH oops now that I re-read I read the orginal table backwards.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 6:56 pm**

My calculations (based on 6 dice per side, not 8 but it doesn't make a lot of difference) suggest that superior knights charging average spear gives the knights just under a 25% chance of forcing a CT on the spears and the spears just over a 50% chance of forcing a test on the knights. When you look at the chances of passing or failing the test the spear will disrupt about 19% of the time and the knights just over 29%.

These are based on 6 bases of spears so there would be a slight advantage for 8 because of the 1 per 3 needing 3 hits but again not a massive difference. If the spear lose the impact there is a high chance they will disrupt and once disrupted they are in big trouble.

If the knights lose the impact then the likely outcome is a weakened knight BG breaks off.

I find the knights breaking 36% of the time to be totally out of whack with my experience of the way the interraction works. It probably explains why I consider average knights to be so totally pants. I have had enemy superior knights charge my spears three times and still not break. OK the knights had commanders with them which makes quite a difference and were deployed 3 bases wide with a spare and there were lots of them but in three games in a row not one enemy knight BG broke on the turn it charged in.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:57 pm**

I think 4 knights v's 6 Spear is very different than 4 v's 8. When 4v6 in the melee the Kn get 2 more dice, if not disrupted, the same dice if disrupted, at evens. In such a fight the KN being superior should win.

Which is why average Knights are pooh. They cannot break into foot formations.

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:39 pm**

hammy wrote:My calculations (based on 6 dice per side, not 8 but it doesn't make a lot of difference) suggest that superior knights charging average spear gives the knights just under a 25% chance of forcing a CT on the spears and the spears just over a 50% chance of forcing a test on the knights. When you look at the chances of passing or failing the test the spear will disrupt about 19% of the time and the knights just over 29%.

These are based on 6 bases of spears so there would be a slight advantage for 8 because of the 1 per 3 needing 3 hits but again not a massive difference. If the spear lose the impact there is a high chance they will disrupt and once disrupted they are in big trouble.

If the knights lose the impact then the likely outcome is a weakened knight BG breaks off.

I find the knights breaking 36% of the time to be totally out of whack with my experience of the way the interraction works. It probably explains why I consider average knights to be so totally pants. I have had enemy superior knights charge my spears three times and still not break. OK the knights had commanders with them which makes quite a difference and were deployed 3 bases wide with a spare and there were lots of them but in three games in a row not one enemy knight BG broke on the turn it charged in.

My program doesn't calculate the theoretical chance, but simulate a large amount of times. I already verified that this system gives the exact theoretical chance in very simple cases, where theoretical calculation is easy, and so I apply where there are so many variables that chance calculation is too difficult or even misleading. My program calculated all the factors for CT and the way the CT result influences the next melee. More, my program records some statistical data, like the number of casualties of each side, very useful to understand the dynamical of the match up.

Apart from this, it's not too difficult to predict in my opinion. During impact, spears roll 8 dice with 4 to hit, so this means an average of 4 hits. Knights roll 8 dice with 5 to hit, so 2-3 hits. Knights have a greater chance to lose impact, and this means also a great chance to get a casualty. With a casualty, knights fight melee with just 6 dice versus 8, this time at even POA. Again, knight have a great chance to lose fight and also to lose another base. If they lose a base they autobreak (I confronted average troops). Even if they don't autobreak, they must undergo 2 CTs quite difficult (-1 to -3 according to situations). Whatever the case, situation is hard for knight.

My experience is very limited, but my Superior Knights (BG in 4s) have been destroyed in 1 turn (1 impact and 1 melee) by Superior Defensive Spear (Fanatic Berber). Another BG of knights (again in 4s but Average) survived and Breakoff, with 1 casualty and Disrupted, so they were unusable for the remind of game (I cannot rally because I had -2 to CT for Disruption and 25% causalties).

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:46 pm**

ethan wrote:OH oops now that I re-read I read the orginal table backwards.

minor detail

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:10 pm**

hammy wrote:I find the knights breaking 36% of the time to be totally out of whack with my experience of the way the interraction works.

Because most people use Superior knights.

What are the results for Superior knights Mario?

Posted: **Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:17 pm**

rbodleyscott wrote:
hammy wrote:I find the knights breaking 36% of the time to be totally out of whack with my experience of the way the interraction works.
Because most people use Superior knights.

What are the results for Superior knights Mario?

Make that superior knights with a commander against average spearmen with rear support, that is the normal match I seem to end up on the receiving end of.

Posted: **Wed Jan 06, 2010 9:20 am**

rbodleyscott wrote:
hammy wrote:I find the knights breaking 36% of the time to be totally out of whack with my experience of the way the interraction works.
Because most people use Superior knights.

What are the results for Superior knights Mario?

Here are the results with Superior knights against Average spears:

Code: Select all

Direct win: Knight = 6,07%, Spear = 5,89%
After melee: Breakoff = 58,44%, Stand = 29,60%
Average casualties: Knight = 0,94, Spear = 0,73

Indeed better, but not what I expect from knights in Italian Communal Age. If you look to this result you can notice that knights breakoff near 60% of times, with a casualty (average 0,94 casualties in one turn). I suspect the difference in percentage of direct win of spears is due to the fact that with 2 casualties average knights break and superior not, but as you can imagine a BG of superior knights with 2 casualties is lost for the game.

Posted: **Wed Jan 06, 2010 9:56 am**

What do you expect from the knights Mario?

Posted: **Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:05 am**

marioslaz wrote:Indeed better, but not what I expect from knights in Italian Communal Age.

But if you are hoping for a historical simulation you should probably grade many/most of the Communal militia spears as Poor.

Historically, (Superior) knights (e.g. French) did not do well against good quality (i.e. Average) spearmen (e.g. Low Countries militia).

If in the Italian Communal era Communal knights (Average) did better, it suggests that the spears should be graded as Poor. The list offers this option because it is historically likely, but offers the Average option for those who rate the Communal spearmen more highly, and to allow the army to compete in themed tournaments.

Posted: **Wed Jan 06, 2010 10:09 am**

marioslaz wrote:Here are the results with Superior knights against Average spears:
Code: Select all
Direct win: Knight = 6,07%, Spear = 5,89%
After melee: Breakoff = 58,44%, Stand = 29,60%
Average casualties: Knight = 0,94, Spear = 0,73
Indeed better, but not what I expect from knights in Italian Communal Age. If you look to this result you can notice that knights breakoff near 60% of times, with a casualty (average 0,94 casualties in one turn). I suspect the difference in percentage of direct win of spears is due to the fact that with 2 casualties average knights break and superior not, but as you can imagine a BG of superior knights with 2 casualties is lost for the game.

What you have missed though is that in any of the stand situations the spears are disrupted and will more likely than not break in the next turn or three. Breaking an enemy BG in on turn is not a common situation in FoG, not even remotely common.

I am not sure I agree with your 6% figure for the knights but it is difficult to analyse. Superior knights would need either a double drop or to loose 2 bases in one round of combat for there to be any chance at all of them breaking.

On a 3 base frontage I make the chance of a double drop by the knights only 1.91% at impact (31.70% chance of losing by 2 hits and 6.01% chance of rolling a 4 or less). Even assuming that they automatically loose the melee by 2 hits and have taken 25% losses there is only a 96.2% chance of dropping again.

The chance of losing 3 bases is miniscule. It needs the spears to get 7 hits on 8 dice (3.13%) and then the knights to roll a 1 or the spears to get 8 hits (0.39%) and then roll a 1 or 2. Even after that the knights have to fail another death roll which is not a certainty.

Slitherine

Impact foot better than knights?

Impact foot better than knights?