Slitherine

robo40 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:13 pm Does anyone know why expected kills goes down as the target unit gets smaller? Specifically, an enemy fighter with 4 left is expected to lose 2, but after being reduced to 2 by a different unit the original unit is only expected to kill 1. Thanks!

The combat log mechanics have the same probabilities, but for some reason the expected return is lower.

robo40 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 1:48 am Mass Attack only affects Init, correct? So an equal or higher init shouldn't lose expected damage by losing Mass Attack, if I understand the mechanics correctly.

Also, what does it mean when the predicted results call for negative suppression? That doesn't make sense to me.

VirgilInTheSKY wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:01 am
If enemy is able to shoot back, losing Initiative might cause less of your strength points fire before the return fire of your enemy thus reduce the damage you can deal.
Blue predicted number means all damage are supression, no kill can be made. What do you mean by negative suppression?

Sequester Grundleplith, MD wrote: ↑Wed Jan 04, 2023 2:34 am It has do with accuracy being percentages I think. Because there will be situations where I need to kill eg 10 HP on a unit for an overrun, but my unit can only do 9. So then I hit it with artillery for one damage, but now my unit only does 8 damage.
BUT if I have a recon next to it, I can *sometimes* get it back up to 9. Since all recon does is provide an accuracy bonus, the mechanism at play probably involves something in the shots/hits, hits/kills percentage chains

Rudankort wrote: This phenomenon is not entirely intentional, there is no special rule in place or anything, but it is a direct consequence of how this kind of a game works. It might be unintuitive on the first glance, but if you think about it, it will actually make sense.

Imagine that you attack a 10 strength unit and kill 5 points on average. Real results will be distrbuted equally around 5, you will get a lot of 6s and 4s, some 7s and 3s and so on. Prediction in this case will be 5.

Now imagine that you attack a 5 strength unit and also kill 5 on average. Often your attack will kill 5, slightly less often 4, occasionally 3 etc. But you will never kill more than five. It is impossible because the target does not have more than 5 points. So when you average out all possible combat results, you will get a number less than 5 as well. Note that you will not see this effect all the time, but only when expected kills are similar to unit's health.

This is how it always works in this kind of a game. The logic which I described above applies the same way to Panzer Corps, to the old Panzer Generals and I think to many other games too. The only difference between Panzer Corps 2 and previous games is that it tries to provide a more accurate prediction. I actually did lots of tests (like 100000 repeats of every combat), averaged the result, compared it to prediction, and when there was a difference, I fixed it. I did it because in Panzer Corps 2 prediction is no longer just a prediction, but an integral part of all combat results at the default 50% randomness, so I felt it needed to be as accurate as possible. But this desire to provide predictions which are true to reality suddenly backfired, by giving results which players don't expect. At this point I'm not sure what's the best solution is.

dalfrede wrote: ↑Mon Jan 09, 2023 4:29 am This was posted in [06 Feb 2020 23:29].
It is the only explanation I have seen.

Rudankort wrote: This phenomenon is not entirely intentional, there is no special rule in place or anything, but it is a direct consequence of how this kind of a game works. It might be unintuitive on the first glance, but if you think about it, it will actually make sense.

Imagine that you attack a 10 strength unit and kill 5 points on average. Real results will be distrbuted equally around 5, you will get a lot of 6s and 4s, some 7s and 3s and so on. Prediction in this case will be 5.

Now imagine that you attack a 5 strength unit and also kill 5 on average. Often your attack will kill 5, slightly less often 4, occasionally 3 etc. But you will never kill more than five. It is impossible because the target does not have more than 5 points. So when you average out all possible combat results, you will get a number less than 5 as well. Note that you will not see this effect all the time, but only when expected kills are similar to unit's health.

This is how it always works in this kind of a game. The logic which I described above applies the same way to Panzer Corps, to the old Panzer Generals and I think to many other games too. The only difference between Panzer Corps 2 and previous games is that it tries to provide a more accurate prediction. I actually did lots of tests (like 100000 repeats of every combat), averaged the result, compared it to prediction, and when there was a difference, I fixed it. I did it because in Panzer Corps 2 prediction is no longer just a prediction, but an integral part of all combat results at the default 50% randomness, so I felt it needed to be as accurate as possible. But this desire to provide predictions which are true to reality suddenly backfired, by giving results which players don't expect. At this point I'm not sure what's the best solution is.