Slitherine

I think this AAR is a prime example of the worst-case scenario for the Axis involving Sealion. I've seen Sealion attempted numerous times in AAR's, by my opponents, and I've even done it a couple times myself. It almost never fails. The problem that you run into isn't being thrown back into the English Channel by the mighty British army. It's getting bogged down and wasting valuable time and resources when you should be getting ready for Barbarossa. That was the case in the original BJR mod, and it's even more of a threat in GS. I know that the temptaion to Sealion can be hard to resist, especially if your opponent was foolish enough to send over the BEF. But you MUST make sure that you have all of the pieces in place when it comes time for Barbarossa. This Russian invasion was absolutely pitiful, and I will be surprised if the Germans even make it to the Dnieper before SW. They don't even have enough units to make a solid line across the shortest possible front. If I were the Russian player here, I wouldn't even let you have Minsk.

ftgcritt2 wrote:I think this AAR is a prime example of the worst-case scenario for the Axis involving Sealion. I've seen Sealion attempted numerous times in AAR's, by my opponents, and I've even done it a couple times myself. It almost never fails. The problem that you run into isn't being thrown back into the English Channel by the mighty British army. It's getting bogged down and wasting valuable time and resources when you should be getting ready for Barbarossa. That was the case in the original BJR mod, and it's even more of a threat in GS. I know that the temptaion to Sealion can be hard to resist, especially if your opponent was foolish enough to send over the BEF. But you MUST make sure that you have all of the pieces in place when it comes time for Barbarossa. This Russian invasion was absolutely pitiful, and I will be surprised if the Germans even make it to the Dnieper before SW. They don't even have enough units to make a solid line across the shortest possible front. If I were the Russian player here, I wouldn't even let you have Minsk.

In contrast, if i were the russian player i would almost all the time stay out of German or any contact with them in 41 campaign in Russia. Don´t forget that even if you make a weak Barbarossa the Russians have technologically inferior forces, so for russians to meet them on the field in 41 would almost always lead to disaster. What he can do is mass a powerfull force to scare the german advance and make it slower, ofcourse punish him if he makes mistakes.....But otherwise just hold on to severe winter and then launch a counterattack when they have the advantage....

If he is smart i don´t think you have anything to worrie about yet...

Continue to advance and don´t spread your forces...

I want to say, that strong Barbarossa in not 100% must, it is just one of the axis strategy options. For example if you manage to get both England and Middle East + Spain, you are very good without barbarossa at all - you have better income then soviets, small ocean of oil and better tech troops, so you can just defence out of SW zone (which is pretty easy under this conditions). If allied player will be agressive early in this sort of game (i.e. using air support at good weather despite being intercepted by superiour axis fighters or exposing attacking armour to axis TACs), he can even ran out of PPs and be driven back to the east in 1942-1943. In number of games I have seen Germans retreating out of SW zone after mediocre barbarossa in '41 winter, and defending there for the rest of the game, and even this is not 100% allied victory. For easy allied victory you need to lure germans deep into russia and pocket them (or just kill many after SW effectiveness loss) - if they retreat organised and with low casualties, nothing is decided yet.

Personally I still share Frank's position - soviets should defence against weak and moderate barbarossa somewhere close to the border, instead of retreating.
Soviet infantry is pretty expendable at this time, its just adviced to let them entrench and don't launch suicidal counterattacks - force germans to attack you. Each step lost by germans is 5 cents into future allied victory, and same is every turn, germans spent fighting/repairing instead of advancing and capturing cities.

Now to report itself.

First of all, my plan seems to work.

Here is message from Zechi:

Soviet Generals are totally surprised and shocked by the Axis invasion. They did not expect the attack before August. Nevertheless, the Soviet Casualties may be high, but the Axis Army seems to be weak, Soviet Generals wonder where the strong German Units which conquered Britain are. Red Army is mobilized as quickly as possible.

Looks like soviet army will retreat to standart defencive positions without much fighting, and its 100% okay for this great barbarossa.

AGN captured Riga this turn and ready to go for Tallin.



AGC captured Vilna and heading for Minsk.



AGS captured Chisinau and reached outskirts of Odessa. Next primary targets are Crimea and Kiev, while maybe soviets will defend Vinnitsa line here (so I will kill some units not covered by river - also good).



Little bug occured here - partisan spawned directly on Stornaway airfield. While it (aswell as Scapa Flow garrison) will be used as shooting range for Kriegsmarine thats still not intended to allow ground units to be on airfields, is it?



This turn I recruited von Reichenau to lead AGS and Schoerner to command Desert Army, now I am going to switch back on infantry production, aswell as building couple additional subs.

Well, things in the east progress pretty good, red army continues retreating, I continue redeploying troops from the west.

Now mechs and armour arrived (aswell as air) and my force is rather half-decent, then really weak.



Tallin assaulted and Minsk taken for now, soviets seems entrenching at their positions.



Vinnitsa and Odessa are also close, red army entrenching alond Dnepr instead of Vinnitsa position. Von Reichenau arrived this turn, to command southern army group.

Britts advance towards Tobruk, but their chances are uncertain - probably they just want to rescue their fighter from Malta? Sad, I don't have bomber around to deal with armour, but german infantry and both fighters have some AT bonus. Italian fighter will be ready next turn and also sent to Lybia.



2 more german corps purchased this turn.

Now its 21th august, end of summer and declined Barbarossa date (by this time all troops from the west were able to be properly deployed, repaired and upgraded near soviet borders). Progress, which I achieved with weak starting force is still better, then anything what can be done during 3 august and september fair turns, even with better force, so decision was probably right.

Elements of soviet frontline spotted and I am totally not interested to go to them.



Southern sector, where I am going to set defence between Odessa and Vinnitsa.



Britts just saved their fighter. Will they attack Tobruk, or will go away for good? Sad I don't have armour and bomber around, if I had, they could be easily defeated at this very spot, and road to middle east would be open. But well, Zechi did some reconing before sending this force, so if I had offencive power here, he would not come likely.



2 more corps purchased for germany this turn.

Situation in southern sector gone out of control - soviets launched strong all-out attack, one Italian corps is destroyed, number of axis forces damaged.



Well, happens.
Immediately AGS forces retreat to safe positions across the river. Additional panzer forces ready to deny any soviet bridgehead and infantry reinforcements constantly arrive.



I expect soviets to stop for a turn, because yellow non-full strength infantry is not best shock power to attack cross river.

AGN also retreats a bit to prepair defencive line out of SW weather zone, because Minsk alone don't worth fighting in SW zone. Hopefully soviets in northern sector would spend half of SW just marching.



In africa my Tobruk Korps was somehow reduced to 5 steps. Well, I repaired it back to 8, aswell as I repaired various airpower. Nothing dangerous for now.



Fat 106 PP convoy spotted and ambushed.



2 corps purchased for germany againt. Can't afford 3 because of constant repairs.

worth noting that w 3 subs you can totally block that central convoy so it never moves towards Canada!

trulster wrote:worth noting that w 3 subs you can totally block that central convoy so it never moves towards Canada!

Two are almost okay aswell, because course is very predictable.
But after USA entry it all will be more compicated.

[quote="Plaid"]Situation in southern sector gone out of control - soviets launched strong all-out attack, one Italian corps is destroyed, number of axis forces damaged.

We knew he was gonna counterattack, i think his attack is premature, to early. Nonetheless it is so vital to keep your forces together against a Russian player who doesn´t have respect. I think you did quite well in repairing and forming a defensive line in south, not much damage done.

If he attacks now he will probably try and advance further, he probably thinks you are on the run......ha ha ha!! Wait him out, winter will be here soon and it is time for you to rebuild and plan for next summer offensive in 42. You need to make it big as well....

In north, might i suggest that you move forward some of your troops a little.....South west of Pskov i would move in infantry to make contact with the russians 2 squares in a line south. Across the river south you put 1 INF and then another 1 forward. After that just strait down to Minsk. That way you make the most out of the rough and river terrain, also put a mech in Minsk for strong point. Also close the cap near Tallin. He is gonna need a lot of firepower to punch trough that.....

He might be scared to do anything in north, you got a nice defense there.

In south if he moves forward, make him pay north of Winnitsa, there you have open terrain and no river to protect behind. There you can probably destroy atleast 1-2 corps each turn if he is close. Use you superior troops in a small narrow point. Against all odds, if he crosses the river make him pay with armour.

I think you are good, need to make a decicive battle in 42 to win ground, that might be hard considering your oil situation

Crazyg

All-out soviet attack continue, now in north aswell.

Northern sector :



Southern sector :



In Lybia Britts are approaching Tobruk.



And here is a response - wehrmacht strikes back. Significant untouched reserves, panzers, airpower - all this thing were pretty painful for attacking depleted soviets.

Northern sector :



3 soviet corps units destroyed, mech badly damaged, but survives, wehrmacht casualties are light, fresh reserves arrive to defend Minsk.

Southern sector :



4 (!) mechs destroyed, corps unit badly damaged. Wehrmacht casualties are half a dozen steps, and units are still in fighting shape.

In Lybia I also destroyed 1 british corps and chipped of a bit of armour, but RAF and flack scored good hits on my air.



3rd Infantry lab builf for Italy, 2 more corps purchased for wehrmacht needs.

Zechi rightfully afraids to use air on the east, against my superior fighters, but it leads to quite suicidal attacks on entrenched units (and easy kills of depleted soviets in return).

I wouldn´t recommend crossing the river in the southern sector, let him attack across the river and get bad odds. If he crosses, then retaliate....

Crazygunner1 wrote:I wouldn´t recommend crossing the river in the southern sector, let him attack across the river and get bad odds. If he crosses, then retaliate....

First unit (panzer) crossed the river to kill a mech from very good position. Rest infantry crossed the river to protect panzer and each other. Its actually a place, where I killed this 3 mechs, don't mind to lose some steps in return (my units are high strength and effectiveness, so it will be costly for soviet to even attack them)

Plaid wrote:

Crazygunner1 wrote:I wouldn´t recommend crossing the river in the southern sector, let him attack across the river and get bad odds. If he crosses, then retaliate....

First unit (panzer) crossed the river to kill a mech from very good position. Rest infantry crossed the river to protect panzer and each other. Its actually a place, where I killed this 3 mechs, don't mind to lose some steps in return (my units are high strength and effectiveness, so it will be costly for soviet to even attack them)

Yeah, maybe you are right this early in the game you have the advantage, but you must consider your casualties, already down pretty much in manpower and rapidly lowering. Never fun to go down below 75% and get -1 in quality.

What are you plans for building up your army? Combined, lots of tanks or planes?

Crazyg

-1 quality is not this bad, as -1 surv, I think.
Units will lose slightly more morale, when beaten, but its not very common in this years for german units to be beaten (or bombed).
Don't have plans for force organisation yet - if soviets somehow keep pressing I will be forced to produce more infantry to stop them and mechs for local counterattacks. If they leave me alone, I will be able to afford panzers. Airpower is very costly in terms of PP and oil, and TAC air seems to me not the best oil-effective and cost-effective unit (now in some games I preffer infantry attack instead of airstrike to soften up defenders, infantry lose steps, but they are cheap compared to TAC and oil free.), but they are very handy against ships and tanks.
Also oil - its more or less stagnant for now, but I don't see any additional sources to get it, while Ploesti bombing is very real.

I think that it's reassuring that the Germans struggle a bit in Libya and Russia after launching Sealion. It means that Sealion is risky business as it should be. The Germans will get some benefit later in the war from not having their industry bombarded and the western Allies will spend more time before they can land in France.

The key is to do so well in Russia so the Russians won't start the steamroller too soon. It's the Russians that will defeat the Germans so they have to be stopped at all cost.

Germany must survive the first severe winter pretty much intact or the 1942 offensive will be too weak. So even if it's possible to attack in October it could be a good idea to entrench and rest before the -35 efficiency hits the Axis units.

I think everything will be decided in 1942. If the Germans can hold the position and weaken the Russians during the Summer of 1942 then the 1943 Russian offensive won't be devastating. If Germany loses several corps units during the first Russian winter offensive then I'm afraid the position will collapse in 1942. Look at how Supermax struggled in the east despite having taken Britain AND USA. So the Germans have to be clever to prevent a premature collapse in the east.

It's too early to predict a winner, but I have to say I think the Allies are slightly ahead due to the situation in Russia. Things can quickly change, though. If the Russians continue an offensive for too long and lose their offensive units (tanks and some mech) then they can struggle when the Germans air and armor units can counter strike.

I agree, still very close at this stage.

I think the allies will rue their early attack in Russia - thats a lot of MECH's and PP's down the drain.

I think the Axis Strategy to wait outside the SW zone in 41 is a good one, but as you note the 42 offensive is going to be the decider!

Supermax suffered in Russia because he forced UK and USA surrender mostly. Ironically, but middle east gone to russians, and all this oilfields are not only oil - its great PP source.

About SW effectiveness drop - I am close to borders of SW zone now, little step back and I will suffer no -35 drop at all, while will lose only 1 PP Minsk and 0 PP Vinnitsa. Also I will be able to place air in Central Europe weather zone, where fair happens even in november and february.

You can actually re-enter the severe winter zone after the initial efficiency drop has happened and not get the drop. So it's better to move westwards to the right side of the line than standing just inside the bad weather zone.

Stauffenberg wrote:You can actually re-enter the severe winter zone after the initial efficiency drop has happened and not get the drop. So it's better to move westwards to the right side of the line than standing just inside the bad weather zone.

Whoa. Is that efficiency drop only applied the first turn when SW begins to all units in the zone? Or is it re-applied again at the beginning of the next SW turn? So the axis could theoretically do hit and run raids over the death-line all winter?

Rhialto wrote:

Stauffenberg wrote:You can actually re-enter the severe winter zone after the initial efficiency drop has happened and not get the drop. So it's better to move westwards to the right side of the line than standing just inside the bad weather zone.

Whoa. Is that efficiency drop only applied the first turn when SW begins to all units in the zone? Or is it re-applied again at the beginning of the next SW turn? So the axis could theoretically do hit and run raids over the death-line all winter?

The efficiency hit is applied to the axis units inside Russia. It's a one time hit at the end of the axis in which severe weather hits.