You're far from lost yet. You WILL lose if you remain in the south and let the Germans gobble up your units, but if you retreat and build a new defense line much further east then the Germans will spend some turns just moving. His huge armor and airforce will burn a lot of oil and without the Iraqi oilfields he will have to be conservative about the oil use soon.
What are the Allies doing with strategic bombing of German cities? If you want to bring the Germans down to their knees you need to hurt their economy and you need to make sure the Allies inflict losses upon German units regularly. This way a part of the Germans PP's will be used in the west.
I think Joe knows the only way he can win is by crushing USSR. If his offensive stalls then he will eventually lose due to the losses in Iraq / Egypt and a strong upcoming Allied presence in the Med. He has some time before he MUST defend in France / Italy etc. and that time is spent to kill Russian units. But what happens if the Russians just retreat and gives away land. The Germans can pursue, but will not kill many units. Oil is burnt every turn and suddenly the new winter arrives.
When the Germans move a bit east of Moscow the supply level drops to 3 meaning -1 movement and no possiblity to rail out from the area.
Germany is still a LONG way from Omsk (Siberia) so everything is not lost. But if he can kill lots of Russians and encircle the Moscow pocket then there will be no resistance between the German forces and Omsk. THEN you will lose. So your goal now should be to prevent encirclements and give land to buy time.
What do you intend to do with the Russian units in Iraq? I guess they're outside the rail range so you might have to push even further into Egypt. But maybe the armor units can try to sprint back to the hexes they can be railed home. With your offensive force out of action in Russia it means it's so much easier for Joe to attack as he does now. The Russian air force can quickly get home.
So my advise to you is to make sure the Allies engage the Germans as soon as possible. E. g. you need to quickly get Tunis and then land in Sardinia, Sicily and mainland Italy. Mainland Italy can be skipped if you instead land in southern France, but then you need to have a lot of land units who can be landed and push towards Paris.
I think Joe has the initiative now and with clever play he can turn to defense and hold out till May 1945. So you need to do something like you did in Iraq that will disrupt his plans and make him send many units towards Italy and France. But I don't see how you do it.
If you had to neglect strategic bombing of Germany then you're paying the price now. I think the single most important way to attack Germany early is to bombard his production. This is a winner every time. If Germany sends fighters to protect his factories then you can use your own fighters to engage the Germans and inflict losses. Some bombers will be hurt and others will get through. Both sides lose many PP's to losses and Germany loses production losses as well. This means the German player gets fewer PP's for new units, repairs etc. THAT can save Russia in the critical time (1942-1943).
Without strategic bombardment Germany will have 150+ production now. That production has to be brought down below 100.
I think one reason there are so few strategic bombers is because you lost a lot of naval units in the North Sea 1940 and later in the Mediterranean. You had to replace the losses at the expense of new bombers. So I think the reason the avalance happens now in Russia is because the Royal Navy was lost in 1940. This shows that mistakes made so early in the war can come back and bite you hard in the future.
You experience shows that it's not worth defending Britain fiercely as the Allies if they lose their navy doing so. Then it's better to let the Germans land and fight their way towards Glasgow and Edinburgh. Losing Britain means that lots of German units are tied up in Britain and the Germans can't at the same time strike towards Iraq. If Britain can evacuate the fighters and the Royal Navy and maybe a corps or two then they can come back later. If they instead save Britain, but lose their best units then the Germans will attack elsewhere like Iraq. It's very tempting to defend London as a lion and one thinks the worst is over when the Germans abandon Sealion, but your game has proven that this is not the case because the price to hold Britain was too high.
Joe still has a lot of work to do before he can take victory for granted. You can still turn this.
