Slitherine

Did you add the melee round action to this?

Si

Conclusion
The Lancers are better charging in to contact only a single base, not becasue this gives them a better chance of winning the combat but because it gives them a much better chance of surviving to try again if they fail.

Try working out the combat using superior Lancers. The chances of winning don't change if you hit with a single base, but on 4 bases they increase by about 40%

The big difference between charging 1 wide as opposed to 2 wide is that when 1 wide you only have a 3% chance of winning by 2, and NO chance of causing 1HP3. This makes a big difference to the spears cohesion test if you do manage to win.

In the melee roung troops who charge 1 base wide will get badly outnumbered, and will most likely lose because of numbers.

My suggestion for your lancers is don't charge spearmen at all unless you can get an advantage. When you do charge aim to roll as many dice as possible. Worrying about how many troops are going to survive isn't going to win you many battles.