Slitherine

ethan wrote:

DaiSho wrote:The fighting frontage of 4 knights should be taken on by 8 cavalry... then what graham said is very true.

It is still important to consider the AP committed.

If the knights are heavily armored and drilled it is 104AP vs. 128AP for undrilled amored cavalry lancers and the knights are likely to win with a PoA in impact and melee.

consider drilled armored knights vs the same then is is 80AP vs 128AP, you could take a 6 base BG of knights for the same AP and still come otu ahead. I don't really think 8 cavalry can take on 6 knights and expect to win...

Now, AP don't always matter on the table - that is why you maneuver but that does mean the cavalry army has to negate those AP in some other way and they still don't have that great a fight, they would pretty easily still lose it in impact when they are down a PoA to lancers...(assuming all involved are superior the knights will score 2 and 1/3 hits on average in impact, the cavalry will score 1 and 5/9 hits on average, so the cavalry are likely to lose and be testing at -2 at least on the cohestion test).

Now sitting a BG of LH in front of said knights equal 40 points if you have bow/sword v 105 points thus keeping knights happy a good use of LH I feel.

[quote="DaiSho Glad to see you got home safe. Hope you enjoyed your visit.

In answer to your question, another (less believed) thing is that they are less brittle than Knights. I keep having the same discussion with my Knight weilding opponent wrt my Cataphracts. Sure, I'd prefer to have knights on impact, but if I don't disrupt on impact I'm now at an advantage. Sure, I cost more than his knights, but every base I lose makes me drop a dice. Every base he loses drops him two dice AND gets him closer to autobreaking.

Thanks Ian - home safe and sound in sunny SA filled with war stories of how I walked through the Aussies' spearwall using superior tactics. As someone lucky once said, "A good general is a lucky general."

As to cataphracts - I have returned mine to the shelf as I have struggled to find a cost effective use for them. Pray tell (as mine look rather pretty).

Richard

richafricanus wrote:In answer to your question, another (less believed) thing is that they are less brittle than Knights. I keep having the same discussion with my Knight weilding opponent wrt my Cataphracts. Sure, I'd prefer to have knights on impact, but if I don't disrupt on impact I'm now at an advantage.

If I don't disrupt, if I have twice as many bases to start with and if I don't lose a base on impact (more accurately lose more bases than the knights) then this is true wrt to cataphracts and heavily armored knights.

Take 4 heavily armored knights hitting 2 BGs of cataphracts, assume everyone is superior.

Each BG of cataphracts will put out 1 and 5/9 hits on impact and take 2 and 1/3 hits.

So let's assume both BG os cataphracts lose. The knights have a death roll of 1 most likely (probably having taken 3 hits) and each catapharct battle group has a death roll of 2 or 3. Just over half the time (5/9) at least one cataphract base is lost.

Each catahpract battle group also has to test for losing the impact at -2 (hits per base, losing to lancers) so they need to roll a 9 or better to avoid disruption, there is about a 38% chance of doing so.

So the chance of coming out of the impact with neither cataphract disrupted and no bases lost is something like 5/9*.38*.38 about 8% This isn't quite right as I don't have a simulator or the energy to do the full probability calculation, but is probably close. It assumes each cataphract loses the impact and takes two hits but does not lose by more than 2.

Most likely it seems to me is that the knights face the next round of combat rolling 8 dice vs 7 or fewer.

richafricanus wrote:As to cataphracts - I have returned mine to the shelf as I have struggled to find a cost effective use for them. Pray tell (as mine look rather pretty).

Use them in period, not in anachronistic battles, and they are great.

ethan wrote:

richafricanus wrote:In answer to your question, another (less believed) thing is that they are less brittle than Knights. I keep having the same discussion with my Knight weilding opponent wrt my Cataphracts. Sure, I'd prefer to have knights on impact, but if I don't disrupt on impact I'm now at an advantage.

If I don't disrupt, if I have twice as many bases to start with and if I don't lose a base on impact (more accurately lose more bases than the knights) then this is true wrt to cataphracts and heavily armored knights.

Take 4 heavily armored knights hitting 2 BGs of cataphracts, assume everyone is superior.

Each BG of cataphracts will put out 1 and 5/9 hits on impact and take 2 and 1/3 hits.

So let's assume both BG os cataphracts lose. The knights have a death roll of 1 most likely (probably having taken 3 hits) and each catapharct battle group has a death roll of 2 or 3. Just over half the time (5/9) at least one cataphract base is lost.

Each catahpract battle group also has to test for losing the impact at -2 (hits per base, losing to lancers) so they need to roll a 9 or better to avoid disruption, there is about a 38% chance of doing so.

So the chance of coming out of the impact with neither cataphract disrupted and no bases lost is something like 5/9*.38*.38 about 8% This isn't quite right as I don't have a simulator or the energy to do the full probability calculation, but is probably close. It assumes each cataphract loses the impact and takes two hits but does not lose by more than 2.

Most likely it seems to me is that the knights face the next round of combat rolling 8 dice vs 7 or fewer.

8 superior cataphracts will cause 3.55555 hits at impact on a BG of 4 knights.
There is a 36% chance that the knights lose a base so end up fighting one of the BGs of cats with only 2 dice.

The cats are more likely to lose but will take longer to do so. If the knights fail that critical death roll or the Cats hang on for mellee its down hill for the knights

expendablecinc wrote: 8 superior cataphracts will cause 3.55555 hits at impact on a BG of 4 knights.
There is a 36% chance that the knights lose a base.

I ran a simple sim in excel and with 1000 tries get about a 15-16% chance the knights lose a base, so I think the 36% number is too high.

The trouble with stats is they fail to take into account you will only kill more than one Kn when the game is probably gone, and never when it could actually do some good.

ethan wrote:

expendablecinc wrote: 8 superior cataphracts will cause 3.55555 hits at impact on a BG of 4 knights.
There is a 36% chance that the knights lose a base.

I ran a simple sim in excel and with 1000 tries get about a 15-16% chance the knights lose a base, so I think the 36% number is too high.

I was doing rerolls on a 1 or 2 (assuming a general) so thats the source of the difference.

36% is still too high I think.

Modified my sim to give Cat's a general and not the knights, that gets the chance of a dead knight at impact up to around 20-21% If the knights also have a general it is about 18-19%

Regardless of the actual percentage chance of the Kn losing a base I think the lesson is that the more clever Cav and Cat players will not go toe to toe with the Kn. Which is fair enough, as Kn represent the highest development of the lancer's art.

In the examples lately discussed, the Cav/Cat player has two BGs against one Kn. Perhaps he should attempt to maneuver for a flank attack. Of course, the Kn player will try to stop that, which means other measures must be taken as well . . . . And that is the fun of playing the game.

Marc

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics.

i usually try to put a LH in charge range of that Kn, and make him test for not to charge, and try to drive them out of my main stream of attack, or over a Spear armed BG or if not possible RUN and RUN
Never read statistics, allways fail, the best strategy in front of Kn is to run and hide ( and if possible make them run and run and never hit....)

danikine74 wrote:i usually try to put a LH in charge range of that Kn, and make him test for not to charge, and try to drive them out of my main stream of attack, or over a Spear armed BG or if not possible RUN and RUN
Never read statistics, allways fail, the best strategy in front of Kn is to run and hide ( and if possible make them run and run and never hit....)

The Dave Ruddock School of Warfare

Cataphracts are not a good counter to knights. Superior unprotected medium foot however.....

You can have two BG of 4 superior undrilled knights (184 points) and I will have 2 BGs of 8 and 1 BG of 6 alumghavar spearmen (176 points).

Put the BG of 6 behind the first 2 in rear support and you have a pretty even combat. I know which side my money is on.

Not if Dave's Cv and LH evade through the MF just before the Kn hit...

rbodleyscott wrote:

richafricanus wrote:As to cataphracts - I have returned mine to the shelf as I have struggled to find a cost effective use for them. Pray tell (as mine look rather pretty).

Use them in period, not in anachronistic battles, and they are great.

they butcher romans!

hammy wrote:Cataphracts are not a good counter to knights. Superior unprotected medium foot however.....

You can have two BG of 4 superior undrilled knights (184 points) and I will have 2 BGs of 8 and 1 BG of 6 alumghavar spearmen (176 points).

Put the BG of 6 behind the first 2 in rear support and you have a pretty even combat. I know which side my money is on.

Unfortunately Veeerrryyyy few armies that can have Cataphracts have the option to pick Almughavars instead or in addition. (Although personally I think that's a grave problem with the army list. All armies should be able to get a couple BGs of Almughavars IMO).

personaly i would if possible go for knights as you count 2 dice per base in 4's that 8 dice 8! in combat plus in impact you count knightly lance over lance and normal you never need to monuvere knights just put them infrount of something to beat up and go straight for it also at a comp me and my dad brought ave dr knights over sup undr knights and were over turned and moverbility didn't even come in. so sup undr or dr knights are the way to go i believe

hope this helps

hammy wrote: Put the BG of 6 behind the first 2 in rear support and you have a pretty even combat. I know which side my money is on.

The 30 bases of Pike for the same price.