Slitherine

lydianed wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:47 pm Division B

lydianed (Moors + Byzantines) defeated Schweetness101 (Byzantines) 62:49.

harveylh wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:25 pm

SLancaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:43 pm RNG is fine. There aren’t far too high extreme probabilities. Let’s not conflate issues.

You sound like you know the exact probabilites. So I will ask you the same question, what are the odds of three consecutive double drops? In two cases the attacks were even and in one case my warband with general was attacking a superior warband with general. Terrain was not a factor. I have an approximate idea based on my knowledge of tabletop FOG but I suspect the tables are not the same so I do not want to guess.

Harvey

SLancaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:43 pm RNG is fine. There aren’t far too high extreme probabilities. Let’s not conflate issues.

Vast majority of players won’t cheat. We have a good community. The road some people are taking now (starting to consider luck as possible cheating) is unhelpful, I think. Warbands drop all the time. I have also seen warbands rally from routing more than other units. They also rally up in melee quite a lot.

Let’s trust in the community and Slitherine!

DanZanzibar wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:56 pm

harveylh wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:25 pm

SLancaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:43 pm RNG is fine. There aren’t far too high extreme probabilities. Let’s not conflate issues.

You sound like you know the exact probabilites. So I will ask you the same question, what are the odds of three consecutive double drops? In two cases the attacks were even and in one case my warband with general was attacking a superior warband with general. Terrain was not a factor. I have an approximate idea based on my knowledge of tabletop FOG but I suspect the tables are not the same so I do not want to guess.

Harvey

If those warbands lose impact combat, it's 42% (-3 CT) that they double drop... so for the evenly matched ones it's about 6% that a) you lose and b) you double drop. Against the superior warband with your general in your unit it's probably about 8%. Now you had 4 opportunities for this to happen 3 times which makes it far more likely than stating it happening 3 times in a row. While obviously unlikley and unlucky, you can see that this is not out of the realm of possibility. Those warbands are very fragile to CT's.

Cunningcairn wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:05 pm

SLancaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:43 pm RNG is fine. There aren’t far too high extreme probabilities. Let’s not conflate issues.

Vast majority of players won’t cheat. We have a good community. The road some people are taking now (starting to consider luck as possible cheating) is unhelpful, I think. Warbands drop all the time. I have also seen warbands rally from routing more than other units. They also rally up in melee quite a lot.

Let’s trust in the community and Slitherine!

I also think the vast majority of players do not cheat and agree we have a great community. You keep bringing up the point about luck and RNG. That is NOT what is being said! It is unlucky or lucky if an event with a probability of 3 in 6 happens to you 4 in 6 times. What I am saying is that the 3 in 6 probability should be 2 in 6 or whatever. I brought this subject up before you started playing FOG2 and it was always fobbed off as some statistical phenomena. It isn't! The evidence is there despite your continuous denial. The only other alternative is widespread cheating which I hope and do not believe is the case. The probability of extreme events is a major contributing factor to the problem that is now out in the public. Yes the probability of rallying is also to high but not only for warband.

SLancaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:29 pm

Swuul wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:16 am

SLancaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:53 am Half of the Digital League uses large armies so it is already there.

Correction, 9/21=43% of Digital League uses 1600 point armies, 57% uses 1200 point armies. In this poll 56% informed they would want to use larger armies. That is quite a difference, one would like to say the exact opposite.

I don’t know what you mean. Two sections use 1600 and two sections use 1200. There is Themed which I didn’t count. What is that? Yes, as I said, strong support on both sides.

SLancaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:15 pm

Cunningcairn wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:05 pm

SLancaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:43 pm RNG is fine. There aren’t far too high extreme probabilities. Let’s not conflate issues.

Vast majority of players won’t cheat. We have a good community. The road some people are taking now (starting to consider luck as possible cheating) is unhelpful, I think. Warbands drop all the time. I have also seen warbands rally from routing more than other units. They also rally up in melee quite a lot.

Let’s trust in the community and Slitherine!

I also think the vast majority of players do not cheat and agree we have a great community. You keep bringing up the point about luck and RNG. That is NOT what is being said! It is unlucky or lucky if an event with a probability of 3 in 6 happens to you 4 in 6 times. What I am saying is that the 3 in 6 probability should be 2 in 6 or whatever. I brought this subject up before you started playing FOG2 and it was always fobbed off as some statistical phenomena. It isn't! The evidence is there despite your continuous denial. The only other alternative is widespread cheating which I hope and do not believe is the case. The probability of extreme events is a major contributing factor to the problem that is now out in the public. Yes the probability of rallying is also to high but not only for warband.

Who cares how long I have been playing a game. Don't start talking about luck in a cheating thread! You have a certain view on it and we know that but it really has nothing to do with cheating!

Cunningcairn wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:12 pm

DanZanzibar wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:56 pm

harveylh wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:25 pm

You sound like you know the exact probabilites. So I will ask you the same question, what are the odds of three consecutive double drops? In two cases the attacks were even and in one case my warband with general was attacking a superior warband with general. Terrain was not a factor. I have an approximate idea based on my knowledge of tabletop FOG but I suspect the tables are not the same so I do not want to guess.

Harvey

If those warbands lose impact combat, it's 42% (-3 CT) that they double drop... so for the evenly matched ones it's about 6% that a) you lose and b) you double drop. Against the superior warband with your general in your unit it's probably about 8%. Now you had 4 opportunities for this to happen 3 times which makes it far more likely than stating it happening 3 times in a row. While obviously unlikley and unlucky, you can see that this is not out of the realm of possibility. Those warbands are very fragile to CT's.

Dan how dare you bring fact and logic into a good argument!

DanZanzibar wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:26 pm

Cunningcairn wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:12 pm

DanZanzibar wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 8:56 pm

If those warbands lose impact combat, it's 42% (-3 CT) that they double drop... so for the evenly matched ones it's about 6% that a) you lose and b) you double drop. Against the superior warband with your general in your unit it's probably about 8%. Now you had 4 opportunities for this to happen 3 times which makes it far more likely than stating it happening 3 times in a row. While obviously unlikley and unlucky, you can see that this is not out of the realm of possibility. Those warbands are very fragile to CT's.

Dan how dare you bring fact and logic into a good argument!

Haha I know, it truly has no place!

But I have to agree with SLancaster. This is very much off topic in this thread... even if there is some loose connection between the conversations. Getting the system sorted out to prevent cheating is a high priority and maybe this discussion of unlikely events should be tabled or moved elsewhere for now.

Cunningcairn wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:23 pm

SLancaster wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:15 pm

Cunningcairn wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:05 pm

I also think the vast majority of players do not cheat and agree we have a great community. You keep bringing up the point about luck and RNG. That is NOT what is being said! It is unlucky or lucky if an event with a probability of 3 in 6 happens to you 4 in 6 times. What I am saying is that the 3 in 6 probability should be 2 in 6 or whatever. I brought this subject up before you started playing FOG2 and it was always fobbed off as some statistical phenomena. It isn't! The evidence is there despite your continuous denial. The only other alternative is widespread cheating which I hope and do not believe is the case. The probability of extreme events is a major contributing factor to the problem that is now out in the public. Yes the probability of rallying is also to high but not only for warband.

Who cares how long I have been playing a game. Don't start talking about luck in a cheating thread! You have a certain view on it and we know that but it really has nothing to do with cheating!

The point I was making is that that these bizarre events have been discussed far longer than you have been playing and is not something that has just become a problem. You reference everything to YOU and take it that I meant that I have been playing longer than you and should know better? Get a grip lad!

DanZanzibar wrote: ↑Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:36 pm No of course not. If there were no possibility of a different outcome then no cheating could occur. But I don’t want the rules of the game or the chances of events to be determined by what makes the game hardest to cheat in the current save/load exploitable format. That should be determined (as it has) by what the developers think makes a good game.